PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

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Land-use Change in Developing Countries Land-use change is particularly suited for pattern analysis. Work has focused on the syndrome-based analysis of deforestation on the one hand and the modelling of local decision-making of smallholders on the other. Based on a set of presently 15 case studies (see Figure 3), a qualitative model has been developed to integrate the case studies. The model exhibits the mechanism of the Sahel Syndrome (see SYNAPSE) to be related to the interplay between an increasing rate of soil degradation and a limited rate of yield increase due to social, economic and environmental circumstances. Overexploitation of Marine Resources The global pattern of overfishing has been examined with a focus on capital accumulation. Extending previous bio-economic models by QDEs, time series of resource use were reconstructed and general problems of fishery development identified (Figure 4). The generalized character of the model allows general conclusions for policy action. Model results show that a fishery needs perpetual adjustment, because the disaster case cannot be reliably avoided under the usual normative framework. Yet the adjustment should not be restricted to a single policy (e.g., catch quotas), but comprise a policy basket. ReCSim Regional Climate Simulation Models Project speaker: Rupert Klein PIK project members: Nicola Botta, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Detlef Hauffe, Martin Kücken, Susanne Langenberg, Antony Owinoh. External project collaborators: U. Böhm (Univ. Potsdam), G. Doms (DWD), U. Schättler (DWD), J. Steppeler (DWD), B. Rockel (GKSS), K. Keuler (BTU Cottbus). The Climate-Limited Area Model CLM Regional climate modelling refers to the practice of nesting a limited area model (LAM) in a general circulation model (GCM) to infer the combined impact of global driving fields and small-scale forcings on the climate of a region. This project will provide PIK with such a dynamic regionalization tool as a contribution to general integrated assessment technologies. PIK has joined the German climate research community in developing such 48 Further work will integrate alternative regulatory frameworks and improve the decision-making module. This will provide direct advice for the EU fisheries policy. Fig. 4: Phase plot (a) of the development of the blue whale hunting industry (solid line), compared to results of former models (dashed line) and our qualitative model (b). The red arrow corresponds to the disaster case, emerging from the critical branching point. Outlook As well as further work in the two fields of syndrome analysis described here, a new focus will be on environmental issues of urban sprawl. This will be the subject of an EU project utilizing underlying case studies for which research is already ongoing. a regional climate model (CLM) based on Deutscher Wetterdienst’s Local Model (LM). Operational Framework and Statistical Analysis The first activity within ReCSim contributes an operational framework suitable for long-time computations and the associated data analysis, modern statistical and non-statistical validation schemes, and improved parameterizations. This is the basis for comprehensive model intercomparison and the validation of the new regional climate model against real data. Figure 5 illustrates our new statistical cluster analysis tools by exhibiting the result of a spatial error estimation. The production of these results required the regional adaptation of the model, the development of software to drive the LAM with global analyses, as well as the incorporation of the group’s statistical analysis tools within the CLM-operational framework.
Fig. 5: Spatial error distribution of the comparison of the LM forecast version versus a three-month analysis period. Numerics for Regional Climate Models Regional climate models are often derived from numerical weather forecast models by extending and adjusting the parameterizations of unresolved processes to account for climatic scales. Although appealing, this approach has several shortcomings associated with the numerical and statistical methods used, and this is the focus of the second ReCSim activity. An example of our efforts concerns the elimination of the computationally expensive lateral and vertical sponge layers usually employed in LAM-GCM coupling. Figure 6 shows preliminary computations done with "spongeless" radiative boundary conditions. Our numerical flow solver requires a reference direction for evaluating numerical fluxes for mass, momentum, and energy. A directionally adaptive Fig. 6: Non-reflecting boundary conditions for non-hydrostatic compressible models based on rotated boundary Riemann problems. flux computation is used near the boundaries aligning the reference direction with the gradient of vertical velocity. The result (lower right) is compared with the standard approach (lower left), and with the adaptive boundary condition on an enlarged domain (top pictures). This project has been funded in part by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, grant KL 611/6. 49
Page 2 and 3: Impressum Publisher Potsdam Institu
Page 4 and 5: The New High-Performance Computer 9
Page 7 and 8: The First 10 Years By Udo E. Simoni
Page 9 and 10: Understanding the Earth system is a
Page 11: The Institute and its Mission
Page 14 and 15: major contributions from the Europe
Page 17 and 18: Five Scientific Departments to Adva
Page 19 and 20: Global Change & Natural Systems Hea
Page 21 and 22: Integrated Systems Analysis Co-Head
Page 23: Research
Page 26 and 27: Table 1: Internal Contest of Ideas
Page 28 and 29: Catalogue of TOOLs INTEGRATED SYSTE
Page 30 and 31: Holocene (the past ~10,000 years).
Page 32 and 33: Research Questions • How do we de
Page 34 and 35: Model Structure and Design The desi
Page 36 and 37: We have built a module of investmen
Page 38 and 39: The implementation of this inter-di
Page 40 and 41: TOPIK 3 - Socio-economic Causes of
Page 42 and 43: TOPIK 4 - Emergence of a Global Sub
Page 44 and 45: Subproject MANUS - “Managers of G
Page 46 and 47: TOPIK 5 - Regional Simulators Diffe
Page 50 and 51: TOPIK 6 - Sectoral Climate Sensitiv
Page 52 and 53: esulting in unbalanced sugar/acid r
Page 54 and 55: TOPIK 7 - PIKuliar Culture PIK oper
Page 56 and 57: Fig. 4: Focus graph for the exam- H
Page 58 and 59: investigate the effect of uncertain
Page 60 and 61: Completed Projects QUESTIONS Qualit
Page 62 and 63: POEM Potsdam Earth System Modelling
Page 64 and 65: RAGTIME Regional Assessment of Glob
Page 66 and 67: EUROPA European Network Activities
Page 68 and 69: CHIEF Global Change Impacts on Euro
Page 71: Sustainability Science
Page 74 and 75: "coevolution science". This also pr
Page 76 and 77: state government, whose promises co
Page 78 and 79: ence will not hesitate to stage the
Page 81 and 82: The First Sustainability Days and t
Page 83 and 84: Scientific Symposia on the First Su
Page 85 and 86: Palaeoperspectives on Global Sustai
Page 87: The New Main Building
Page 90 and 91: From the Royal Astrophysical Observ
Page 92 and 93: 92 tinctly set apart from the highe
Page 94 and 95: A project to expand the building wa
Page 96 and 97: Rediscovering hidden beauty. Ceilin
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The Big 42-Check - an Interview Q:
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Scientific Relations
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A Network for Our Future Understand
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issues, and integration of discipli
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place in October 2001 and was part
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Public Relations
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impac
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Appendix
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Organization Chart
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Board of Trustees Chair: State/Fede
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eclipse of August 11, 1999. Meteoro
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per unit leaf area in Solanum melon
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In: Public participation and integr
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Hoff, H. (2000): Deep rooted or: Ho
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Schaaf, C.; Strahler, A.; Gao, F.;
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and future climate changes: North-s
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131 Lectures at PIK (continued) Dat
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Symposia Name of Event Place and Da
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135 External Funding Project Name A
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137 Project Name Acronym Reference
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139 Project Name Acronym Reference
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Co-operations Australia Institution
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Germany Institution/Location Type o
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Institution/Location Type of co-ope
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Universität Marburg, FB Wirtschaft
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Switzerland Institution/Location Ty
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Schröder, Birgit Schröter, Dr. Da
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Notes 159
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Publications 2000 Publications, pee
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Republic, IHP-V, Technical Document
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