PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

TOPIK 6 - Sectoral Climate Sensitivity
The projects within this TOPIK address the climate sensitivity
of relevant ecological systems and economic sectors.
Using special-purpose methods and models, the
probable reactions of those exposure units to consistent
global-change scenarios are quantitatively explored. The
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investigations focus on issues that have particular need
of additional studies, such as the consequences of global
warming for the European wine production and marketing
system or the opportunities provided by alternative
management strategies for temperate forests.
SAFE
Sensitivity and Adaptation of Forests in Europe under Global Change
Project speaker: Petra Lasch
PIK project members: Franz-W. Badeck, Thies Eggers,
Ylva Hauf, Beate Klöcking, Marcus Lindner,
Peter Mohr, Jörg Schaber, Felicitas Suckow.
Introduction
The overall objective of the project is the analysis of
likely impacts of global change (CO 2 increase, nitrogen
deposition, climate change and relevant socio-economic
trends) on forests in Europe. Changes in growth and
productivity of forest species may influence the competitive
relationships among the species, the carbon sequestration,
water budgets and biodiversity at local and
regional scale. The project is focused on the integrated
evaluation of the multi-functionality of natural and managed
forests including economic and other social impacts
of global change. Alternative management options are
evaluated for different future scenarios.
Integrated Forest Sector Impact Assessment
An integrated impact assessment is based on linking:
• ecosystem dynamics,
• decision-making in forest management,
• wood production and socio-economic consequences,
• impacts of climate change and management on ecosystem
services like carbon storage, water protection
and yield, biodiversity, and recreation.
Using the physiology-based forest dynamics model 4C
(Forest Ecosystems in a changing Environment) the
effect of management intensity on carbon storage of forests
in Germany was investigated. 4C was applied to 12
forest stands of pine, spruce, beech, oak and mixed
spruce-pine in 6 forest growth regions. The application
of three harvesting strategies leads to differences in total
carbon storage over a period of 60 years. Current thinning
practices (corresponding to the 5% scenario) do not
strongly reduce the storage capacity (Figure 1).
Fig. 1: The model stands are situated in 6 forest growth regions of
Germany (map, right). Site data were provided by the BMBF
project ‘German Forest Sector under Global Change’ (cf completed
projects, CHIEF). Removing woody biomass by 5, 10, or
20% every five years resulted in reductions of total carbon storage
(biomass, soil, removals) in comparison with carbon storage of an
unthinned forest. In this case more carbon was stored than in any
of the management scenarios.
Fig. 2: Bud burst of oak at two periods in Germany.
Phenology
Growing season length and especially the start of the
growing season marked by bud burst has substantial
impact on the annual carbon balance of trees. Analysing
records of bud burst in Germany from 1880-1999
showed that at the regional level the global warming sig-