PIK Biennial Report 2000-2001 - Potsdam Institute for Climate ...

TOPIK 3 - Socio-economic Causes of Global Change
In this TOPIK, we study the human causes of global
change. Global change results from the modern, planetary-scale
interaction of the anthroposphere and the ecosphere.
On the human side, proximate causes are visible,
e.g., in the commercial energy system, in world-wide
urban dynamics, in the transportation and traffic sector,
and in the role of globalized capital and resource markets
for overall economic development. Indirect causes may
EUROPA
Project speaker: Ottmar Edenhofer
PIK project members: Maren Ewald, Katrin Gerlinger,
Armin Haas, Carlo Jaeger, Marian Leimbach, Ina Meyer,
Fritz Reusswig, Detlef Sprinz, Martin Welp.
A Leading Role for Europe?
The EUROPA project addresses the main question:
How can Europe take a leading role in global climate
protection strategies, acting in an environmentally
responsible and in an economically beneficial way at the
same time? The European Union is already a key player
in international climate policies, and has taken action
within the UNFCCC framework. But in order to have a
significant impact on the global climate, exclusively
European protection strategies may not be effective.
Thus it is necessary to think about allies in other regions
and/or about the diffusion of effective European measures
around the world. Usually, climate protection is
seen as a burden, producing additional costs and hampering
the economy. The project tries to take an innovation-oriented
perspective, looking at economies from a
dynamic perspective. It will be embedded in a continuous
stakeholder dialogue (cf ECF on page 106) in order
to be part of a mutual knowledge transfer to decisionmakers
in the European Union.
The Research Questions
Three research questions are focal points:
1) Which economic sectors and consumer lifestyle patterns
can be identified as main drivers of CO 2 emissions?
2) Which socio-technical innovations and related diffusion
processes can engender a substantial reduction of
CO 2 emissions?
3) Can Europe play a pioneering role in bringing about
such innovations?
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be found in institutional arrangements, in value orientations,
and in patterns of knowledge. At present, global
socio-economic dynamics are constrained to paths
which are not sustainable. We investigate characteristics
and causes of these constraints, possibilities for their
future evolution, and opportunities to achieve a transition
to sustainability.
These questions are answered by using a wide range of
methodological tools from different social sciences. Economic
modelling will play a key role, and it has to endogenize
technological progress both in the fossil and the
renewable energy sectors. Furthermore political and
institutional factors that affect the innovative capacity of
Europe and the rest of the world are included. Finally,
the influence of lifestyles and lifestyle changes as well as
their diffusion over the globe are part of the project.
EUROPA follows a modelling philosophy that does not
aim at one super-model but is based on a modular
approach.
First Results
First results show that mitigation costs are exaggerated in
conventional integrated assessment models because
these models neglect technological change. Once technical
change is taken into account, the standard trade-off
between economy and ecology may vanish and give way
to a world where economic prosperity and ecological stability
are no longer contradictory. In particular, a transition
of the energy system may even be economically
superior to sticking to the present fossil base. If suitably
managed, research and development dynamics may bring
about this transition without energy prices rising.
In our stakeholder dialogue, it turned out that various
business and industry players are well aware of such possibilities
and are interested in using them profitably.
They develop strategies for their future business and try
to anticipate and influence the strategic measures taken
by their business partners and competitors and by policy-
makers.
A commonly held view is that environmental impacts of
human economic activity follow an environmental Kus-