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Deliverable D 1.3 RESULTS OF META-ANALYSIS ... - cast-eu.org

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Campaigns and awareness raising strategies in traffic safety — <strong>Deliverable</strong> D-1.1APPENDIX A –ENFORCEMENT AND CAMPAIGN EFFECTComparison of bivariate analyses of effect of enforcement accompanyingcampaigns on accident counts, for those studies included in CAST that derivefrom the GADGET and INFOEFFEKT projects. (Small differences betweenthese results and those reported in GADGET and INFOEFFEKT are presentbecause (i.) not all studies were included in CAST, due to reconsideration ofevaluation studies after CAST criteria, and (ii) there are possibly differences ininterpretation by researchers on respective projects as to what constitutesenforcement activity.)Table A1. Results from meta-analysis of studies based on accident counts in CAST database.Model used to describe effectDescriptionDegreesfreedomRandom effects Fixed effects Random effects+ publicationbiasFixed effects +publication biasCAST, all (accident counts) 112 -13 (-16; -9) -10 (-12; -9) -6 (-9;-1) -7 (-8;-6)CAST, enforcement 78 -14 (-18; -9) -12 (-13; -10) -12 (-17;-8) -11 (-12;-10)CAST, no enforcement 31 -11 (-18; -4) -6 (-8; -3) -10 (-16;-2) -5 (-8;-3)GADGET, all 76 -13 (-17; -10) -13 (-14; -11) -11 (-14;-6) -10 (-12;-9)GADGET, enforcement 53 -15 (-19; -11) -14 (-15; -12) -12 (-16;-7) -11 (-13;-11)GADGET, no enforcement 20 -8 (-15; -1) -7 (-10; -4) -7 (-14; 0) -6 (-8;-3)INFOEFFEKT, all 83 -14 (-18; -10) -13 (-14; -12) -14 (-18;-10) -13 (-14;-12)INFOEFFEKT, enforcement 60 -17 (-21; -12) -14 (-16; -13) -15 (-20;-10) -14 (-15;-12)INFOEFFEKT, no enforcement 20 -8 (-15; -1) -7 (-10; -4) -7 (-14;0) -6 (-10;-5)Table A1 shows that the lack of a significant difference between thosecampaign effects accompanied or not accompanied by enforcement activitiesin the CAST bivariate analyses is due to choice of the random effects model.In GADGET, a fixed effects model was used. Most of the studies used inGADGET are present in the CAST database, and re-analysis of these studiesusing a fixed-effects model (without adjusting for publication bias) confirms asignificant benefit for accompanying enforcement using the GADGET studies.If we had relied on the same model in CAST, we would have drawn the sameconclusion. In other words, according to the fixed effects model, whether ornot we adjust for publication bias, there is a significant difference in overalleffect for those campaigns accompanied (12% reduction in accidents) and notaccompanied (6% reduction) by enforcement.137

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