Book 2.indb - US Climate Change Science Program

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Chapter 5δ 13 O of CaCO 3 , o /ooδ 18 O of CaCO 3 , o /oo-2-10123-10+1The PETM issignificant to thepresent day becauseit is an analog to thepotential fossil fuelcarbon release ifwe burn all the coalreserves.CO 2 releaseDeep oceanwarms56 55Age, million yearsCO 2 recoversin ~100,000 yrsOcean temp.recovers in~100,000 yrs54Figure 5.12. Carbon (top) and oxygen (bottom) isotoperecord for benthic foraminifera from sites in the south Atlanticand western Pacific Oceans for the Paleocene-Eocene ThermalMaximum (PETM), from Zachos et al. (2001), modified by Archer(2007); used with permission. ‰, per mil.141210Temperature, Cdo, suggesting that the carbon spike invaded thedeep ocean from the atmosphere (Thomas etal., 2002). Similar events, also associated withtransient warmings, have been described fromother times in geologic history (Hesselbo et al.,2000; Jenkyns, 2003). The PETM is significantto the present day because it is an analog to thepotential fossil fuel carbon release if we burnall the coal reserves.The change in isotopic composition of thecarbon in the ocean is attributed to the releaseof some amount of isotopically light carbon tothe atmosphere. However, it is not clear wherethe carbon came from, or how much of it therewas. The magnitude of the carbon shift dependson where it was recorded. The surface changerecorded in CaCO 3 in soils (Koch et al., 1992)and in some planktonic foraminifera (Thomaset al., 2002) is twice as large a change as isreported for the deep sea. Land records maybe affected by changes in plant fractionation,driven by changing hydrological cycle (Bowenet al., 2004). Ocean records may be affected byCaCO 3 dissolution (Zachos et al., 2005) resultingin diagenetic imprints on the remainingCaCO 3 , a necessity to use multiple species, orsimple inability to find CaCO 3 at all.8We can estimate the change in the carbon inventoryof the ocean by specifying an atmosphericpartial pressure of CO 2 value (pCO 2 ), a meanocean temperature, and insisting on equilibriumwith CaCO 3 (Zeebe and Westbroek, 2003).The ocean was warmer, prior to the PETMevent, than it is today. Atmospheric pCO 2 wasprobably at least 560 ppm at this time (Huberet al., 2002). The present-day inventory of CO 2in the ocean is about 40,000 GtC. According tosimple thermodynamics, neglecting changes inthe biological pump or circulation of the ocean,the geological steady-state inventory for latePaleocene, pre-PETM time could have been onthe order of 50,000 GtC.The lighter the isotopic value of the source,the smaller the amount of carbon that must bereleased to explain the isotopic shift (Fig. 5.12,top). Candidate sources include methane, whichcan range in its δ 13 C isotopic composition from–30 to –110‰. If the ocean δ 13 C value is takenat face value, and the source was methane at–60‰, then 2,000 GtC would be required toexplain the isotopic anomaly. If the sourcewere thermogenic methane or organic carbonat δ 13 C of about –25‰, then 10,000 GtC wouldbe required.Buffett and Archer (2004) find that the steadystatehydrate reservoir size in the ocean isextremely sensitive to the temperature of thedeep sea. At the temperature of Paleocenetime but with everything else as in the presentdayocean, they predict less than a thousandGtC of methane in steady state. As the oceantemperature decreases, the stability zone getsthinner and covers less area. Their model wasable to fit 6,000 GtC in the Arctic Ocean,however, using 6 °C temperatures from CCSM(Huber et al., 2002) (which may be too cold)and assuming that the basin had been anoxic(Sluijs et al., 2006).Marine organic matter has an isotopic compositionof –20‰ and would require 6,000 GtCto explain the isotopic anomaly. Svensen etal. (2004) proposed that lava intrusions intoorganic-rich sediments could have causedthe isotopic shift. They cite evidence that theisotopic composition of methane producedfrom magma intrusion should be –35 to –50‰,186
Abrupt Climate Changerequiring therefore 2,500–3,500 GtC to explainthe isotope anomaly in the deep ocean. If CO 2were also released, from metamorphism ofCaCO 3 , the average isotopic composition of thecarbon spike would be lower, and the mass ofcarbon greater. Storey et al. (2007) showed thatthe opening of the North Atlantic Ocean and associatedigneous intrusions and volcanism correspondin time with the PETM. However, thetime scale of carbon release (
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TABLE OF CONTENTSAuthor Team for th
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The U.S. Climate Change Science Pro
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PREFACEReport Motivation and Guidan
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1CHAPTERAbrupt Climate ChangeIntrod
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Abrupt Climate Change-35Arctic temp
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Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 1.2. Po
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Abrupt Climate Changewell below sea
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Abrupt Climate Changeheterogeneous
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Abrupt Climate Changeapart from dro
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Abrupt Climate Change6. Abrupt Chan
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Abrupt Climate Changeintermediate c
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Abrupt Climate Changeper square met
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Abrupt Climate Changeis the norther
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Abrupt Climate ChangeRegardless how
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Abrupt Climate Changecentrations, a
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Abrupt Climate ChangeBox 2.1. Glaci
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Abrupt Climate Changetime. Degree-d
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Abrupt Climate Changetion, and accu
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Abrupt Climate ChangeBox 2.2. Mass
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Abrupt Climate Changeof the glacier
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Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 2.6. Ra
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Abrupt Climate Changewater) or, mor
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Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 2.7. Re
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Abrupt Climate Changeresults in a l
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Abrupt Climate Changeis not providi
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Abrupt Climate Changemeasurements c
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Abrupt Climate Changemore than 10,0
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Abrupt Climate Changeocean models h
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Abrupt Climate Changeto atmosphere-
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3CHAPTERHydrological Variability an
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Abrupt Climate Change• The integr
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Abrupt Climate Changethe soil (King
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Abrupt Climate Changeon (Kaplan et
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Abrupt Climate Changeorbital-time-s
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Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 3.4. (t
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Abrupt Climate Changemodels forced
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Abrupt Climate ChangeBox 3.2. Waves
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Abrupt Climate Changebecause (1) th
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Abrupt Climate ChangeHarrison et al
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Abrupt Climate Changethat even the
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Abrupt Climate Changethat seen afte
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Abrupt Climate Changeentire period
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Abrupt Climate Changelong-lived gre
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Abrupt Climate Changeplanetary-scal
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Abrupt Climate ChangeBox 3.3. Paleo
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Abrupt Climate Changerelated to the
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Abrupt Climate Changeinto the North
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Abrupt Climate ChangeThe summertime
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Abrupt Climate Change(Anderson et a
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Abrupt Climate ChangeHere the model
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Abrupt Climate Changetropical tropo
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Abrupt Climate Changefunctions; Koc
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Abrupt Climate Changechanges than t
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Abrupt Climate Changeboundary condi
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program
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Book 2.indb - US Climate Change Science Program

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