Book 2.indb - US Climate Change Science Program

Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 2.7. Reconstruction of the cumulative glacier contribution to sea levelchange relative to an arbitrary zero in 1961 (Oerlemans et al., 2007; copyrightJ. Oerlemans, reprinted with permission). The three smooth curves representdifferent choices for η, a parameter which regulates the conversion of normalizedglacier length to volume. S DM (dots) is the cumulative contributionestimated directly from measurements.At this point, however, we must recall thecomplication of calving, recently highlightedby Meier et al. (2007). Small glaciers interactnot only with the atmosphere but also with thesolid earth beneath them and with the ocean.They are thus subject to additional forcingswhich are only indirectly climatic. Meier et al.(2007) made some allowance for calving whenthey estimated the global total balance for 2006as –402 ± 95 Gt a –1 , although they cautioned thatthe true magnitude of loss was probably greater.“Rapid” is a relative term when applied to themass balance of small glaciers. For planningpurposes we might choose to think that the1850–2000 average rate of Oerlemans et al.(2007) is “not very rapid.” After all, humansociety has grown accustomed to this rate,although it is true that the costs entailed by aconsistently non-zero rate have only come to beappreciated quite recently. But a loss of 110 to150 Gt a –1 can be taken as a useful benchmark.It is greater in magnitude than the net loss of54 ± 82 Gt a –1 estimated by Kaser et al. (2006)for 1971–75 and significantly less than theKaser et al. (2006) net loss of 354 ± 70 Gt a –1for 2001–04. So in the last three decades theworld’s small glaciers have moved from losingmass at half the benchmark rate to rates two orthree times faster than the benchmark rate. Asfar as the measurements are able to tell us, thisacceleration has been steady.Figure 2.8 shows accordance between balanceand temperature. Each degree of warmingyields about another –300 Gt a –1 of mass lossbeyond the 1961–90 average, –136 Gt a –1 . Thissuggestion is roughly consistent with the currentwarming rate, about 0.025 K a –1 , and balanceacceleration, about –10 Gt a –2 (Fig. 2.8). Tocompare with rates inferred for the more distantpast, it may be permissible to extrapolate (withcaution, because we are neglecting the sensitivityof mass balance to change in precipitationand also the sensitivity of dB/dT, the change inmass balance per degree of warming, to changein the extent and climatic distribution of theglaciers). For example, at the end of the YoungerDryas, about 11,600 years ago, small glacierscould have contributed at least 1,200 Gt a –1[4 K × (300) Gt a –1 K –1 ] of meltwater if weadopt the total summer warming (Denton etal., 2005). Such large rates, if reached, couldreadily be sustained for at least a few decadesduring the 21st century. At some point the totalshrinkage must begin to impact the rate of53