Book 2.indb - US Climate Change Science Program

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Chapter 2Figure 2.5. Mass-balance estimates for the entire Greenland ice sheet:green—airborne laser altimetry (ATM); purple—ATM/ICESat (summarized inThomas et al., 2006); black—Satellite Radar Altimetry (SRALT) (4: Zwally etal., 2005); red—mass budget (5,6,7: Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006); blue—GRACE (8 and 9: Velicogna and Wahr, 2005, 2006a; 10: Ramillien et al., 2006;11: Chen et al., 2006; 12: Luthcke et al., 2006). The ATM results were supplementedby degree-day estimates of anomalous melting near the coast (Krabillet al., 2000, 2004), and probably underestimate total losses by not taking fullaccount of dynamic thinning of outlet glaciers (Abdalati et al., 2001). SRALT resultsseriously underestimate rapid thinning of comparatively narrow Greenlandglaciers, and may also be affected by progressively increased surface melting athigher elevations. Gt, gigatons.Here, we assume this to be the case, and focuson the other results shown in Figure 2.5, whichstrongly indicate net ice loss from Greenlandat rates that increased from at least 27 Gta –1 between 1993–94 and 1998–99 to aboutdouble between 1997 and 2003, to more than80 Gt a –1 between 1998 and 2004, to more than100 Gt a –1 soon after 2000, and to more than200 Gt a –1 after 2005. There are insufficientdata for any assessment of total mass balancebefore 1990, although mass-budget calculationsindicated near overall balance at elevationsabove 2,000 m and significant thinning in thesoutheast (Thomas et al., 2001).3.2.2 AntarcticaDetermination of the mass budget of the Antarcticice sheet is not as advanced as that forGreenland. Melt is not a significant factor, butuncertainties in snow accumulation are largerbecause fewer data have been collected, and icethickness is poorly characterized along outletglaciers. Instead, ice elevations, which havebeen improved with ICESat data, are used tocalculate ice thickness from hydrostatic equilibriumat the glacier grounding line. The groundingline position and ice velocity are inferredfrom Radarsat-1 and ERS-1/2 InSAR. For theperiod 1996–2000, Rignot and Thomas (2002)inferred East Antarctic growth at 20 ± 1 Gt a –1 ,with estimated losses of 44 ± 13 Gt a –1 for WestAntarctica, and no estimate for the AntarcticPeninsula, but the estimate for East Antarcticawas based on only 60% coverage. Usingimproved data for 1996–2004 that provideestimates for more than 85% of Antarctica(and which were extrapolated on a basin perbasin basis to 100% of Antarctica), Rignotet al. (2008) found an ice loss of 106 ± 60 Gta –1 for West Antarctica, 28 ± 45 Gt a –1 for thepeninsula, and a mass gain of 4 ± 61 Gt a –1 forEast Antarctica in year 2000. In year 1996, themass loss for West Antarctica was 83 ± 59 Gta –1 , but the mass loss increased to 132 ± 60 Gta –1 in 2006 due to glacier acceleration. In thepeninsula, the mass loss increased to 60 ± 46Gt a –1 in 2006 due to the massive accelerationof glaciers in the northern peninsula followingthe breakup of the Larsen B ice shelf in theyear 2002. Overall, the ice sheet mass lossnearly doubled in 10 years, nearly entirely fromWest Antarctica and the northern tip of thepeninsula, while little change has been foundin East Antarctica. Other mass-budget analysesindicate thickening of drainage basins feedingthe Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf from portions ofEast and West Antarctica (Joughin and Bamber,2005) and of some ice streams draining ice fromWest Antarctica into the Ross Ice Shelf (Joughinand Tulaczyk, 2002), but mass loss from thenorthern part of the Antarctic Peninsula (Rignotet al., 2005) and parts of West Antarcticaflowing into the Amundsen Sea (Rignot et al.,2004b). In both of these latter regions, lossesare increasing with time.Although SRALT coverage extends only towithin about 900 km of the poles (Fig. 2.6),inferred rates of surface elevation change(dS/dt) should be more reliable than in Greenland,because most of Antarctica is too cold forsurface melting (reducing effects of changingdielectric properties), and outlet glaciers aregenerally wider than in Greenland (reducinguncertainties associated with rough surfacetopography). Results show that interior parts48
Abrupt Climate ChangeFigure 2.6. Rates of elevation change (dS/dt) derived from ERS radar-altimeter measurements between1992 and 2003 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (Davis et al., 2005). Locations of ice shelves estimated to bethickening or thinning by more than 30 cm a –1 (Zwally et al., 2005) are shown by purple triangles (thinning)and red triangles (thickening). Inset shows mass-balance estimates for the ice sheet: red—mass budget(1: Rignot and Thomas, 2002); blue—GRACE (2: Ramillien et al., 2006; 3: Velicogna and Wahr, 2006b;4: Chen et al., 2006); black—ERS SRALT (5: Zwally et al., 2005; 6: Wingham et al., 2006).49
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TABLE OF CONTENTSAuthor Team for th
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The U.S. Climate Change Science Pro
Page 10 and 11: PREFACEReport Motivation and Guidan
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Page 21 and 22: 1CHAPTERAbrupt Climate ChangeIntrod
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Abrupt Climate ChangeThe summertime
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Abrupt Climate Change(Anderson et a
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202REFERENCESChapter 1 ReferencesAl
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program
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