Book 2.indb - US Climate Change Science Program

Abrupt Climate ChangeIPCC, 2007, Climate change 2007: The physical science basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY,USA, 996 pp.Jorgenson, M.T., C.H. Racine, J.C. Walters, and T.E. Osterkamp,2001: Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associatedwith a warming climate in central Alaska. Climatic Change,48, pp. 551–579.Jorgenson, M.T., Y.L. Shur, and E.R. Pullman, 2006: Abrupt increasein permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska. GeophysicalResearch Letters, 33, L02503, doi:10.1029/2005GL024960.Kuhlbrodt, T., A. Griesel, M. Montoya, A. Levermann, M. Hofmann,and S. Rahmstorf, 2007: On the driving processes of theAtlantic meridional overturning circulation. Reviews of Geophysics,45, RG2001, doi:10.1029/2004RG000166.Kvenvolden, K.A., 1993: Gas hydrates-geological perspectiveand global change. Reviews of Geophysics, 31, pp. 173–187.MacFarling Meure, C., D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, P.S. Steele,R. Langenfelds, T. van Ommen, A. Smith, and J. Elkins,2006: Law Dome CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O records extended to2000 years BP. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14810,doi:10.1029/2006GL026152.Mann, M.E., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, and A. Clement, 2005:Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past1000 years. Journal of Climate, 18, pp. 447–456.Mao, W.L., C.A. Koh, and E.D. Sloan, 2007: Clathrate hydratesunder pressure. Physics Today, October, 60(10), pp. 42–47.Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T.Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A.Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver, and Z.-C.Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, andH.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom, pp. 747–845.Meissner, K.J. and P.U. Clark, 2006: Impact of floods versus routingevents on the thermohaline circulation. Geophysical ResearchLetters, 33, L15704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026705.Mercer, J., 1978: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO 2 greenhouseeffect: A threat of disaster. Nature, 271, pp. 321–325.Newman, M., G.P. Compo, and M.A. Alexander, 2003: ENSOforcedvariability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Journal ofClimate, 16, pp. 3853–3857.Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay,R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden, and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007:Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Climate Change2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F.Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom,pp. 315–356.NRC, 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. NationalAcademy Press, 230 pp.Overpeck, J.T. and J.E. Cole, 2006: Abrupt change in Earth’s climatesystem. Annual Review of Environment and Resources,31, pp. 1–31.Peltier, W.R., G. Vettoretti, and M. Stastna, 2006: Atlanticmeridional overturning and climate response to ArcticOcean freshening. Geophysical Research Letters, 33,doi:10.1029/2005GL025251.Pielke, R.A. and C.W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized hurricane damagesin the United States, 1925–1995. Weather and Forecasting,13, pp. 621–631.Rahmstorf, S., 2007: A semi-empirical approach to projecting futuresea-level rise. Science, 315, pp. 368–370.Ridley, J.K., P. Huybrechts, J.M. Gregory, and J.A. Lowe, 2005:Elimination of the Greenland ice sheet in a high CO 2 climate.Journal of Climate, 18, pp. 3409–3427.Ross, T. and N. Lott, 2003: A Climatology of 1980–2003 ExtremeWeather and Climate Events. National Climatic Data CenterTechnical Report No. 2003-01, 14 pp.Rowley, R.J., J.C. Kostelnick, D. Braaten, X. Li, and J. Meisel,2007: Risk of rising sea level to population and land area. Eos,Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88(9), pp. 105–116, doi:10.1029/2007EO090001.Sachs, J.P. and R.F. Anderson, 2005: Increased productivity inthe subantarctic ocean during Heinrich events. Nature, 434,pp. 1118–1121.Schulz, H., U. von Rad, and H. Erlenkeuser, 1998: Correlationbetween Arabian Sea and Greenland climate oscillations of thepast 110,000 years. Nature, 393, pp. 54–57.Seager, R., M. Ting, I. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P.Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, andN. Naik, 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition toa more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science,316, pp. 1181–1184.Shakhova, N., I. Semiletov, and G. Panteleev, 2005: The distributionof methane on the Siberian Arctic shelves: Implications forthe marine methane cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 32,doi:10.1029/2005GL022751.Shin, S.-I., P.D. Sardeshmukh, R.S. Webb, R.J. Oglesby, and J.J.Barsugli, 2006: Understanding the mid-Holocene climate.Journal of Climate, 19, pp. 2801–2818.Spence, J.P., M. Eby, and A.J. Weaver, 2008: The sensitivity ofthe Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwaterforcing at eddy-permitting resolutions. Journal of Climate (inpress).Stahle, D.W., F.K. Fye, E.R. Cook, and R.D. Griffin, 2007: Treeringreconstructed megadroughts over North America sinceAD 1300. Climatic Change, 83, pp. 133–149.Stouffer, R.J., J. Yin, J.M. Gregory, K.W. Dixon, M.J. Spelman,W. Hurlin, A.J. Weaver, M. Eby, G.M. Flato, H. Hasumi, A.Hu, J.H. Jungclaus, I.V. Kamenkovich, A. Levermann, M.Montoya, S. Murakami, S. Nawrath, A. Oka, W.R. Peltier, D.Y.Robitaille, A. Sokolov, G. Vettoretti, and S.L. Weber, 2006: Investigatingthe causes of the response of the thermohaline circulationto past and future climate changes: Journal of Climate,19, pp. 1365–1387.203