an average of two years <strong>to</strong> coalesce. The core team did not foresee that it would take this longfor scientists from different institutions and different disciplines <strong>to</strong> successfully work <strong>to</strong>getherin a regional mode, but on global questions. In hindsight this seems naïve, but at the time allthe scientists were focusing on the contents of the research and just did not think about whatit takes <strong>to</strong> build a team in one location (let alone in multiple locations in parallel). Thetransaction costs of learning <strong>to</strong> work <strong>to</strong>gether at each benchmark site were compounded bythose associated with the need for overall coordination and communication. The differentteams at each site consisted of scientists from research institutions (national andinternational), from NGOs and from universities. Some had previous experience withparticipa<strong>to</strong>ry research methods; others had none. It quickly became obvious that it wasessential <strong>to</strong> reconcile the objectives of the programme with the expectations of each teammember at a given site. The differing roles of these participants required almost constantrenegotiations on the part of the overall coordina<strong>to</strong>r.One dimension of the ASB approach, the use of ‘standardized’ methods at each site <strong>to</strong>facilitate cross or interregional analyses of results, proved difficult <strong>to</strong> implement at first. Eachbenchmark team considered that the set of methods proposed by the programme needed <strong>to</strong> besignificantly amended <strong>to</strong> account for the particularities of their own site. The analysis of dataacross the benchmark areas and the global results were indeed not a very strong motivationfor some of these teams, until it was agreed that the global or cross-site analysis would beundertaken by all interested scientists, no matter whether they were located at a given site orwere part of the initial core team. A geo-referenced database was developed <strong>to</strong> facilitate thesynthesis of results and the sharing of information across the regional teams. After a fewyears of data collection at each benchmark area, and once some of the regional results startedbeing analysed from a global perspective, the regional teams became almost more interestedin the global analysis than in the production of a full analysis of their own data.Using integrated scenario analyses for facilitating regional-level analysesScenario development and analysis has already been successfully used at a global level <strong>to</strong>help reveal and address knowledge gaps about the plausible future interactions between GECand a number of ecosystem goods and services, e.g. food production or water availability orclimate regulation. Such studies are often called ‘integrated’ as they include (i) social,economic and environmental processes and scientific disciplines; (ii) cover multiple levels onmultiple scales; and (iii) strongly involve stakeholders. Such scenarios can be eitherqualitative (s<strong>to</strong>ries) or quantitative (models) or both.Scenario analyses conducted at the regional level help <strong>to</strong> systematically explore policy andtechnical options at the appropriate level by providing a suitable framework for (i) raisingawareness of key environmental and policy concerns; (ii) discussing viable adaptationoptions; and (iii) analysing the possible consequences of different adoption options for foodsecurity and environmental goals. These can be based on scenarios developed at the globallevel (e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report onEmissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000); the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA, 2005) and94
the UNEP’s <strong>Global</strong> Environment Outlooks (GEO-3 and GEO-4: UNEP, 2002, 2007), butsuch analyses do not necessarily feature issues that are of particular relevance at the givenregional level (Zurek and Henrichs, 2007).Downscaling global scenarios <strong>to</strong> national (or even local) level has been considered by anumber of authors (e.g. Lebel et al., 2006; Biggs et al., 2007; Kok et al., 2007) but, while acommonly agreed approach is still lacking, downscaling methods and theories are becomingmore common (e.g. Zurek and Henrichs, 2007). Upscaling has, however, proven <strong>to</strong> be moredifficult and remains one of the largest challenges. Some argue that global downscaling limitsthe creativity and diversity of regional scenarios and call for more upscaling efforts. Othersargue that upscaling will fail because of the lack of a common framework in terms of drivers,time horizon, definitions etc. (see Alcamo et al., 2008). So, while there are a large number ofdetailed global scenarios available, their potential has been undervalued for developingscenarios at regional level.The current state-of-the-art is <strong>to</strong> embark upon a cross-level methodology in which globalscenarios are first downscaled and used <strong>to</strong> produce regional or local scenarios without beingprescriptive, after which local scenarios are used <strong>to</strong> enrich the existing global s<strong>to</strong>rylines in aniterative procedure, often using qualitative s<strong>to</strong>rylines as well as quantitative models. Creatingregional scenarios is not just a matter of ‘downscaling’ the information available in globalscenarios (e.g. climate change projections) for regional use; some information (such as trendsin trade) will have been built up from lower levels. Other information will be new and willneed <strong>to</strong> come directly from the region in question (Zurek and Henrichs, 2007). Regional‘s<strong>to</strong>rylines’ of plausible futures can share some of the key assumptions with global-levels<strong>to</strong>rylines, i.e. be coherent with global assumptions, yet regionally ‘enriched’, as was the casefor the GECAFS Caribbean exercise (Box 3). Similarly, the Southern African Sub-<strong>Global</strong>Assessment (SAfMA) (Biggs et al., 2004) adapt existing scenarios, stressing governance as amajor driver and developing two regional s<strong>to</strong>rylines, African Patchwork and AfricanPartnership. These can be mapped <strong>to</strong> the MA <strong>Global</strong> Scenarios.Box 3 The GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Exercise.In 2005, with funding from ICSU and UNESCO, GECAFS, in collaboration with FAO, UNEP, theMillennium Ecosystem Assessment and the European Environment Agency, developed the conceptualframeworks and methods necessary <strong>to</strong> formulate a set of pro<strong>to</strong>type scenarios for researching theinteractions between food security and environmental change at the Caribbean regional level. Thesescenarios were specifically designed <strong>to</strong> assist analyses of possible regional policy and technicalinterventions for adapting food systems <strong>to</strong> environmental change so as <strong>to</strong> explore the medium- andlong-term prospects for given adaptation options for food security. The innovative operationalframework was based on theoretical advances in the notion of food systems and their vulnerability <strong>to</strong>GEC, and downscaling global scenarios <strong>to</strong> regional level.The Caribbean scenarios exercise involved about 30 people including social and natural scientistsfrom regional research institutions (e.g. the University of the West Indies (UWI) and the Caribbean95
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2010 about 925 million people had t
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water) are used, and reduce negativ
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concerns and are now issues that mu
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the relationships between GEC and f
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Theme 2 aims to understand how comm
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GEC and the Food System of the Indo
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Paper 2: The role of agronomic rese
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These advances have resulted from a
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Crop selection to determine mechani
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Agronomic science is central to imp
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interventions and political inertia
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Box 1 Food system Activities and fo
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In addition to broadening the debat
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urgently needed, and - given the gr
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Curriculum VitaeFollowing a BSc in