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Theme 2 aims to understand how communities and institutions might anticipate, resist oradapt to, and recover from the impacts of GEC. GEC may cause food provision problems inthe short term, when adaptations mechanisms are too slow, and in the long term, whereadaptation mechanisms are simply not effective. Research needs to concentrate on howenvironmental and socio-economic forces combine at local to regional levels either toenhance or reduce vulnerability; on existing strategies for coping with food shortages; and onthe extent to which global environmental and socio-economic forces might alter humanvulnerability within selected regions. To make these assessments will require theidentification of the most vulnerable groups, the key institutions in society that make or breakcoping and adaptation efforts, and management efforts which will be needed to counteract thenegative aspects of GEC. The nature of critical thresholds for adaptation, and when andwhere these will be exceeded will be a critical part of the research agenda. In addition, it willdetermine the speed of coping and adaptation that different groups in society possess, andhow this relates to GEC.Theme 3 “Feedbacks”The third theme considers “What would be the environmental and socioeconomicconsequences of alternative adaptation strategies?” The question recognises that differentadaptation strategies will have different consequences for both socioeconomic systems andenvironment, and that both types of consequence are equally important and need to beconsidered simultaneously. Theme 3 will allow regional-level analyses of “tradeoffs” betweensocioeconomic and environmental issues for a range of management and policy options. Theseanalyses will be conducted within the scenarios agreed upon in the project planning phase.Research will need to develop tools to identify, and quantify as far as possible, the feed-backs toenvironmental issues such as atmospheric composition and other climate change drivers,consequences for biodiversity and land and aquatic degradation, and also to socioeconomicissues such as livelihoods, institutional flexibility and policy reform. The rapidly growingconcern for potential environmental degradation due to changes in genetic variability andbiotechnology will be included.By complementing work in Themes 1 and 2, this “feed-backs” component will identifyGECAFS as a comprehensive GEC research programme.The GECAFS Science Themes provide an innovative framework within which new areas ofscience can be developed and harnessed to address societal concerns. Examples include:Methods for the analysis of environmental and socioeconomic tradeoffs in food systems.Analyses of changing human wealth and food preferences and interactions withbiophysical models of GEC to produce new insights of regions where food provision maybe sensitive to GEC.20
Methods to allow the appropriate level of aggregation of small-scale food productionsystems and disaggregation of global-scale scenarios and datasets to address regional andsub-regional issues.New analyses and insights into the institutional factors which can reduce societalvulnerability to GEC.Developing combined socioeconomic-biophysical indices of vulnerability.GECAFS studies will need to be set within clearly defined sets – or “scenarios” – of futurebiophysical and socioeconomic conditions. These will be specifically designed to assistanalysis of possible policy and biophysical interventions using the interdisciplinary science atthe Project’s core, and will set the context for the individual research projects. They will helpto “tease out” the meaning of “socioeconomic change” in the context of GEC. Thedevelopment of these comprehensives scenarios is in itself a major research exercise. Thishas been initiated by defining three broad categories of attributes as a minimum set ofrequired contributing data: the food system; socioeconomic and demographic factors; andenvironmental and ecological data. The further development of “aggregated indicators” toassess vulnerability will be a significant new science output.Research Design, ImplementationGECAFS aims to help strengthen policy formulation for reducing vulnerability to globalchange at national to sub-continental scales; and to provide tools and analyses to undertakeassessments of trade-offs between food provision and environment in the context of globalchange. To be effective research will be developed that meets the needs of national andregional policy makers, the principal “clients” for GECAFS research. GECAFS will thereforeengage with policy makers early in the research planning process to develop research thatdirectly addresses their needs and maintain close links throughout the implementation andreporting phases. In collaboration with research partners and collaborators, donors and endusers,GECAFS will (i) identify interdisciplinary research topics of mutual interest to science,development and policy formulation; (ii) help in developing databases and future scenarios toexplore tradeoffs; (iii) help in the dissemination of results and obtaining feedback from endusers;and (iv) assist in capacity building as part of its research approach.GECAFS research will thus be implemented in two major ways: (i) Individual GECAFSprojects at sub-continental-level, “tailor-made” to address particular interests of policymakers, donors and science community; and (ii) Integrative GECAFS studies at multi-regionto global level, which integrate individual studies. Individual studies will undertake researchaddress all three science themes.21
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Page 9: AbstractFood security is a conditio
Page 12 and 13: 2010 about 925 million people had t
Page 14 and 15: water) are used, and reduce negativ
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Page 18 and 19: determine interactions along and be
Page 20 and 21: Paper 3: A Food Systems Approach to
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Page 26 and 27: concerns and are now issues that mu
Page 28 and 29: the relationships between GEC and f
Page 32 and 33: GEC and the Food System of the Indo
Page 34 and 35: Paper 2: The role of agronomic rese
Page 36 and 37: These advances have resulted from a
Page 38 and 39: Crop selection to determine mechani
Page 40 and 41: Agronomic science is central to imp
Page 42 and 43: Agronomic research in relation to f
Page 44 and 45: The discussion above identifies a n
Page 46 and 47: interventions and political inertia
Page 48 and 49: While research on producing food ha
Page 50 and 51: Box 1 Food system Activities and fo
Page 52 and 53: In addition to broadening the debat
Page 54 and 55: options. Examples already seen rang
Page 56 and 57: Figure 3 Outcomes for 10 variables
Page 58 and 59: Figure 4 Nine ‘planetary boundari
Page 60 and 61: Figure 5 Environmental change, food
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: Indicative analysis of the
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Page 68 and 69: Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Eur
Page 70 and 71: Parry et al., 2005). Conducting foo
Page 72 and 73: is provided in the ESF/COST Forward
Page 74 and 75: Paper 5: Engaging Stakeholders at t
Page 76 and 77: into actions (strategies, policies,
Page 78 and 79: Box 2 Engaging with stakeholders in
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Box 3 Setting the research agenda f
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Third, and of considerable practica
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Figure 2: Organizing and understand
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organizations made up of numerous n
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Elements of good practice in stakeh
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Finally, it is worth noting that fo
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development (Lee, 1999; Gunderson a
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Box 7 The GECAFS stakeholder survey
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‘break down’ what might be a hi
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Paper 6: Undertaking Research at th
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agriculture in many parts of the wo
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gaps. The presence of a strong tech
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an average of two years to coalesce
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Institute for Meteorology and Hydro
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Identifying case study sitesResearc
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can both benefit from and contribut
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Box 5 Mapping stakeholder interests
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Holding planning meetings in locati
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This reorientation of the debate fr
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Importance of this type of research
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Integrating the food system concept
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awareness of the GEC issues within
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pollutants were then introduced as
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communities operating in food syste
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Improving input-use efficiency acro
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governance focuses on the range of
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Developing research agendas in supp
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The renewed approach to interdiscip
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BIELAK, A., HOLMES, J., SAVGÅRD, J
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EAKIN, H. 2010. What is Vulnerable?
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GODFRAY, H. C. J., BEDDINGTON, J. R
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INGRAM, J. S. I. & FERNANDES, E. C.
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LYUTSE, S. 2010. The One Billion To
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RAYNER, S. & MALONE, E. L. 1998. Hu
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UNDP 2006. The 2006 Human Developme
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activities “from plough to plate
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contribution to the science agenda:
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urgently needed, and - given the gr
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GECAFS plannenmakerij stelde vast d
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ieder hun eigen groep van betrokken
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het gebied van beheer hebben betrek
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Curriculum VitaeFollowing a BSc in
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