Paper 2: The role of agronomic research in climate change and security policyAdapted from:Ingram, JSI, PJ Gregory and A-M Izac. 2008. The role of agronomic research in climatechange and food security policy. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 126, 4-12.IntroductionHuman activities related <strong>to</strong> the production, supply and consumption of food, are partlyresponsible for changing the world’s climate and giving rise <strong>to</strong> other, globally and locallyimportant environmental changes. Such environmental changes include those infreshwater supplies, carbon and nitrogen cycling, biodiversity, and land cover and soils(Vi<strong>to</strong>usek et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2004). While climate change may bring benefits <strong>to</strong> someparts of the world, especially northern latitudes above about 55°, there is growing concernthat overall these changes, and especially those associated with climate, will furthercomplicate achieving food security for those in the developing world. This is due <strong>to</strong> thegenerally predicted deleterious impacts on agriculture, in particular in tropical and subtropicalcountries (Fischer et al., 2001; Rosegrant and Cline, 2003; Parry et al., 2004; HadleyCentre, 2006; Stern, 2006). There are three main reasons: first, many parts of the developingworld are anticipated <strong>to</strong> be exposed <strong>to</strong> significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.Climate assessments for Southern Africa, for instance, conclude that the region willbecome warmer and drier (Hulme et al., 2001); a temperature increase of 2–5 °C is predictedover coming decades (IPCC, 2001) and increasingly variable rainfall is anticipated, withthe region becoming generally drier, especially in the east (Scholes and Biggs, 2004). Anincrease in both frequency and intensity of extreme events (droughts and floods) is alsoanticipated (IPCC, 2001; Tyson et al., 2002b). Second, developing economies areparticularly sensitive <strong>to</strong> the direct impacts of climate change given their often heavydependence on agriculture and ecosystems, and because of their high poverty levels andgeographic exposure (Stern, 2006). Third, many people in the developing world depend directlyon agriculture as their primary source of food, and negative impacts on crop productivity willaffect crop production and thereby overall food supply at the local level.To compound the anticipated negative impacts of climate change on crop production, overalldemands for food will increase as global population continues <strong>to</strong> rise from the ca. 6 billionpeople <strong>to</strong>day <strong>to</strong> an anticipated ca. 9 billion by 2050 (UN, 2004). It is clear that overall cropproduction will need <strong>to</strong> continue <strong>to</strong> increase by 50% over the next few decades <strong>to</strong> meet thisanticipated demand, although predicting future global food production is complex (Döös,2002). This brings further concerns that, if the rising demand for food is met through currenttechnologies and cropping practices, further environmental degradation is inevitable (Tilmanet al., 2002; Bruinsma, 2003). An example is that the increased use of fertilisers would lead24
<strong>to</strong> higher greenhouse gas emissions which in turn exacerbate climate change (“climateforcing”). Such changes would in turn further undermine food production.Agronomy therefore faces two major challenges. The first is <strong>to</strong> help develop food productionsystems that both improve food supply in the face of climate change, while simultaneouslyreducing fac<strong>to</strong>rs responsible for climate forcing (Figure 1). The second is <strong>to</strong> workmore effectively with a range of other disciplines <strong>to</strong> help deliver agronomic outputs bothbetter integrated within the overall context of food security and better tuned <strong>to</strong> the needs offood security policy formulation.Figure 1 Overarching research questions relating <strong>to</strong> climate change impacts, adaptations andfeedbacks.Agronomic research on the impacts of climate changeAdvances in crop breeding and agronomy have enabled increase in crop yields over the last 40years or so. In Europe, for instance, yields have increased steadily and approximately linearlyover the last 45 years (Figure 2), and in the USA, similarly, linear increases in maize, riceand wheat yields (61, 54 and 41 kg ha -1 year -1 , respectively) have been recorded over thelast 50 years (K. Cassman, pers comm).Figure 2 Observed wheat grain yields for selected countries in Europe (from Ewert et al., 2005).25
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Importance of this type of research
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BIELAK, A., HOLMES, J., SAVGÅRD, J
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EAKIN, H. 2010. What is Vulnerable?
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GODFRAY, H. C. J., BEDDINGTON, J. R
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INGRAM, J. S. I. & FERNANDES, E. C.
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LYUTSE, S. 2010. The One Billion To
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RAYNER, S. & MALONE, E. L. 1998. Hu
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UNDP 2006. The 2006 Human Developme
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contribution to the science agenda:
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Curriculum VitaeFollowing a BSc in