2012-13 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement

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2012-13 Government Mid-year Financial Projections StatementKEY BUDGET AGGREGATESWestern AustraliaTable 12011-12 2012-13 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16Budget Mid-year Forw ard Forw ard Forw ardActual Estimate Revision Estimate Estimate EstimateGENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTORNet Operating Balance ($m) 649 196 140 -187 393 1,770Revenue ($m) 25,220 25,477 25,318 26,356 27,910 30,323Revenue Grow th (%) 5.5 2.9 0.4 4.1 5.9 8.6Expenses ($m) 24,571 25,281 25,178 26,543 27,517 28,553Expense Grow th (%) 10.2 4.2 2.5 5.4 3.7 3.8TOTAL PUBLIC SECTORNet Debt at 30 June ($m) 14,523 18,594 18,225 22,081 24,023 24,768Asset Investment Program ($m) 6,782 7,639 7,323 7,053 6,626 6,443Cash Position ($m) -2,240 -3,364 -3,589 -3,281 -1,867 -538KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS (a)Net Interest Cost to Revenue (%) 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7Net Financial Liabilities (b) to Revenue (%) 64.0 72.0 72.9 78.4 78.3 73.9(a)(b)These ratios relate to the total non-financial public sector.As defined by Standard & Poor’s for the purposes of credit rating assessments.Of note, the general government operating balance in 2012-13 has declined from aforecast $196 million at budget-time to a current estimate of $140 million. An operatingdeficit of $187 million is currently forecast for 2013-14, which largely reflects the impactof the softer revenue outlook noted above.The Asset Investment Program remains at record levels, with spending of $7.3 billion in2012-13 and a total of $27.4 billion over four years (up $1.0 billion since budget).As a result, net debt levels are now projected to increase to around $24.8 billion by30 June 2016.The following table summarises the key economic assumptions underpinning thismid-year review.4
Financial ProjectionsKEY ECONOMIC FORECASTS, WESTERN AUSTRALIA(2012-13 Budget Forecasts Shown in Brackets)Table 22012-132011-12 Mid-yearActual (a) Revision2013-14ForwardEstimate2014-15ForwardEstimate2015-16ForwardEstimateReal Gross State Product growth (%) 6.7 6.0 5.0 4.25 4.25(6.0) (4.75) (4.75) (4.25) (4.25)Real State Final Demand growth (%) 14.2 7.0 3.75 1.75 1.25(9.0) (6.75) (4.25) (2.0) (3.25)Employment growth (%) 3.7 3.25 2.25 2.0 1.75(2.5) (2.75) (2.5) (2.25) (2.0)Unemployment rate (%) 4.0 4.25 4.5 4.5 4.5(4.25) (4.25) (4.25) (4.0) (4.0)Wage Price Index growth (%) 4.3 4.5 4.25 4.25 4.25(4.25) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5)Perth Consumer Price Index growth (%) 2.2 3.25 3.0 3.0 3.0(2.5) (3.5) (3.25) (3.25) (3.25)Iron ore price ($US/tonne FOB) 137.0 118.4 109.8 107.2 104.5(146.3) (127.3) (115.2) (102.9) (90.6)Crude oil price ($US per barrel) 95.0 89.3 90.4 89.3 87.8(97.5) (104.5) (101.3) (96.7) (93.3)Exchange rate (US cents) 103.2 103.4 101.0 98.2 95.4(103.8) (99.0) (92.0) (84.9) (77.9)Population growth (%) 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3(2.5) (2.3) (2.3) (2.2) (2.2)Interest rate assumptions (%):– Public Bank Account interest earnings (b) 4.8 3.4 2.8 3.5 4.3(4.6) (3.9) (4.7) (4.9) (5.0)– Consolidated Account borrowings (b) 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.8 4.3(5.2) (4.6) (4.6) (4.9) (4.9)(a) Gross State Product (GSP) and State Final Demand (SFD) growth data are based on 2011-12 State Accounts data,released on 21 November 2012, updated with the latest quarterly State Final Demand data released on 5 December 2012.(b) Average for the year.Note: All data are annual averages. The forecasts assume no changes in Commonwealth Government policy settings.5
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