2012-13 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement

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2012-13 Government Mid-year Financial Projections StatementGeneral Government SectorOperating StatementAn operating surplus of $140 million is now forecast for 2012-13, with operatingsurpluses in prospect in both 2014-15 and 2015-16. An operating deficit of $187 millionis currently forecast for 2013-14.Across the forward estimates (2012-13 to 2015-16), the operating balance has beenrevised down by a total of $666 million. This reflects a significant reduction in revenuetotalling $1.2 billion over the four years to 2015-16, partly offset by an overall reductionin recurrent spending of $537 million. This includes a range of new savings measures,detailed later in this chapter, which boost the operating surplus by around $527 million in2012-13 and $84 million in 2013-14.These savings measures have enabled additional spending on priority services includingthe effect of higher demand for health and education services associated with the growingeconomy and population.The following table summarises the changes in general government revenue and expensessince the 2012-13 Budget.Table 3SUMMARY OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENSEVARIATIONS SINCE THE 2012-13 BUDGET2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Total$m $m $m $m $m2012-13 BUDGET - NET OPERATING BALANCE 196 345 836 1,404RevenueRevenue impact of 2012-13 corrective measures 162.7 22.2 8.6 5.9 199.5Policy decisionsRevised Mining Rehabilitation Arrangement - 39.9 45.4 51.5 136.8Bursw ood Casino Expansion 8.0 10.0 13.0 17.0 48.0Other 5.7 -0.8 -0.2 0.5 5.2Total policy 13.7 49.1 58.2 69.0 190.0Parameter (a)Taxation 448.3 413.4 330.6 322.7 1,515.1- Payroll tax 215.7 204.4 168.5 143.8 732.4- Total duty on transfers 121.5 77.7 20.4 28.2 247.8- Insurance duty 45.9 52.1 56.8 61.4 216.2- Other taxes 65.2 79.3 84.9 89.3 318.6Commonwealth grants -235.1 -185.9 41.7 453.1 73.9- GST grants 169.9 232.1 328.4 719.4 1,449.8- North West Shelf/condensation compensation -100.4 -171.3 -223.6 -310.7 -806.0- Other Commonw ealth grants -304.6 -246.7 -63.1 44.4 -569.9Royalty income -505.0 -754.7 -644.9 -447.5 -2,352.1- Iron ore -471.5 -691.9 -545.3 -317.9 -2,026.6- Other royalties -33.5 -62.8 -99.6 -129.6 -325.5Revenue from public corporations (b) -179.0 -250.7 -325.5 -372.4 -1,127.6Other 135.1 43.7 65.1 54.7 298.6Total parameter -335.7 -734.1 -532.9 10.6 -1,592.1TOTAL REVENUE -159.3 -662.8 -466.1 85.5 -1,202.7Note: Columns/rows may not add due to rounding6
Financial ProjectionsTable 3 (cont.)SUMMARY OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENSEVARIATIONS SINCE THE 2012-13 BUDGETExpenses2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Total$m $m $m $m $mExpense impact of 2012-13 corrective measures -364.2 -61.7 -80.6 -30.8 -537.4Policy decisionsRoads Infrastructure 1.3 11.7 13.0 43.1 69.1Pilbara Generation Capacity - Synergy Operating Subsidy - 15.0 17.0 - 32.0Early Psychosis Youth Centre - 2.0 5.2 8.1 15.4Attorney General Corporate (Shared) Services 9.2 4.4 1.2 - 14.7Revised Mining Rehabilitation Arrangement 1.0 1.6 1.9 7.0 11.5Aubin Grove Train Station Recurrent Expenses 0.3 1.1 2.6 6.9 10.9ANZAC Centenary 2.8 5.2 - - 8.0Country High Schools Hostels Ex Gratia Scheme 2.0 4.8 - - 6.7Other 32.8 24.2 13.5 13.7 84.1Total Policy 49.3 69.9 54.4 78.9 252.5Parameter (a)Operating Subsidy for Synergy/Horizon -0.6 -29.6 -113.2 -246.4 -389.8Superannuation interest cost -61.3 -66.5 -83.4 -104.6 -315.8Debt servicing costs -24.2 -111.0 -129.9 -34.5 -299.6Depreciation -36.4 -19.8 -44.2 -108.3 -208.8Student Grow th and Cost Pressures 54.9 74.4 87.8 105.0 322.1Operating subsidy for Water Corporation 16.9 36.2 42.4 30.7 126.1Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements 85.9 - - - 85.9Increased Hospital Activity 85.0 - - - 85.0Training Delivery 22.7 7.6 5.9 7.1 43.3Increased Daily Average Prisoner Population 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 42.0Assets Transferred to Local Governments/Private Sector -47.2 -50.5 96.8 - -0.9Other 105.9 9.5 130.7 12.5 258.7Total Parameter 212.1 -139.3 3.4 -328.0 -251.8TOTAL EXPENSES -102.8 -131.1 -22.9 -280.0 -536.7TOTAL VARIANCE -56.5 -531.7 -443.2 365.5 -666.02012-13 MID-YEAR REVIEW - NET OPERATING BALANCE 140 -187 393 1,770(a)Parameter changes include movements due to issues not subject to policy decisions, such as variations in Commonwealthgrants, cost escalation, movements in interest and depreciation, etc.(b) Excludes corrective measures impact on dividends and tax equivalent revenue.Note: Columns/rows may not add due to roundingRevenueA weaker revenue outlook, particularly for royalties and tax equivalent and dividendpayments from public corporations, dominates revisions to the outlook since budget-time.Since the budget, general government operating revenue has been revised down by$1.2 billion over the four years to 2015-16. Forecast revenue growth for 2012-13 is just0.4%, down from the budget-time forecast of 2.9%. This compares to average revenuegrowth of 8.5% over the last decade, and follows the modest 5.5% revenue growthrecorded in 2011-12.7
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2012-13 Government Mid-year Financial Projections Statement

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