Link to thesis. - Concept - NTNU

3520 00018 000Cost development from the early stages of definintion to budget at the time of decision to buildN=1418460189591871916 00014 00013268NOK million (2007 value)12 00010 0008 0006 0004 0002 000-Early est. Agency Analyst BudgetFigure 8 Cost development in the early stages of transportation infrastructure projects(Magnussen 2009a)The review by external experts at the detailed planning level adds another NOK 0.5 billion. Thetotal budget of NOK 18.7 billion at the time of decision to build is slightly lower than the totalbudget recommended by the consultants, though it is NOK 5.5 billion above the costs associatedwith these projects at the early stages of definition. Though it’s easy to understand the potentialconsequences for public budgets of a NOK 5.5 billion increase in portfolio of 14 projects underthe same agency, the numbers themselves may be said to be of secondary interest in this context.More important, as the results illustrate, a control measure introduced just prior to the decision tobuild is inadequate to significantly affect the development of costs in a project.Thus far, the focus has been on the presentation of quantitative differences that may shed lighton the affects of quality assurance. The complex and interrelated issues involved imply theimportance of inquiries aimed to better capture context dependent information.In paper 10 (Magnussen 2009b) reviewed the magnitudes of the differences between externalconsultants and project organizations in 61 projects and then identified explanations for thedifferences, that is, qualitative descriptions of why estimates differ. The areas associated withexplanations for differences in estimates identified by the study are listed in Table 1.