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experience, has been collected and analyzed. The next Chapter highlights important lessons thathave emerged from the work.38
395 Conclusions and directions for furtherresearchThe conclusion of this work comprises comments linking the results obtained to the issuesinitially identified.The work reported in this thesis is an exploration of the up-front assessment and qualityassurance of major investment projects. Traditional project management research is concernedwith how planning and control of project execution affects actual outcomes. This work focuseson empirical investigation of improvement measures introduced in the front-end.Both primary and secondary research questions were stated in Chapter 1. The primary questionsaddressed the essential features of effective up-front assessment and quality assurance as well astheir impacts on projects. The secondary questions, explored in greater detail, concerned themajor problem of cost overrun in projects. They included exploring the extent to which up-frontassessment and quality assurance may guard against underestimation of cost, whether agreedboundaries for cost development are followed or not and how improved budgetary compliancemay be encouraged.In paper 1 (Magnussen and Samset (2005)) and paper 2 (Magnussen and Olsson (2006)), thequestions have been explored through detailed descriptions of the project approval process, itstheoretical underpinnings, its embedded principles, and how it is carried out in practice. It wasshown that the introduction of quality assurance was triggered by the lack of success andrepeated failures of major public projects in the 1990s. The first initiative addressing thisdrawback was Quality Assurance 2 (QA2), the mandatory quality assurance and uncertaintyanalysis of projects carried out by external consultants on behalf of the responsible ministrybefore a project is brought before Parliament to be authorized for execution. In paper 5,Magnussen and Olsson (2008), assert that this particular approach has its roots in the engineeringtradition of project management, which means that focus is on the control aspect. It focuses onensuring that projects can be carried out as planned and much effort is expended on thedevelopment of a realistic budget. It is presumed that the quality assurance affects projected costssimply because it exists. Arguably this is the case, because responsible agencies and projectorganizations are informed about an upcoming quality assurance, so adjustments to estimatesmay be made in advance of the external independent review. It is also shown that immediatelyafter the introduction of the QA2, a more sophisticated procedure for monitoring project costcame in place. This may itself influence the control of costs during execution. In paper 4, Olssonand Magnussen (2007) illustrated how this might occur in practice, with an analysis of the use ofreduction lists principally used to keep the project within budget.Investigations of cost estimates to probe issues related to extent to which the process of up-frontassessment and quality assurance could guard against underestimation in cost have revealedseveral important aspects. In paper 10 (Magnussen (2009b)) demonstrates that the impact of areview of costs done prior to the decision to build may result in significant changes in individualprojects. However, the impact on costs for the projects seen as a whole remains low (an averagedifference of 3.4 % is observed and in nearly half of the projects the differences are within the ±5 % range). In paper 9 (Magnussen (2009a)) tracks cost development from the earliest stages ofdefinition to actual outcome. The paper illustrates that “inaccurate estimates” in the early stagesof planning in 13 of 14 cases later turn out to be “too low estimates”. However, the mostimportant aspect probably is that even more reliable estimates result from costs added by external
Page 1 and 2: 3PrefaceThe research presented in t
Page 3 and 4: 5Table of contentsPART 1 ..........
Page 5 and 6: 7Summary/abstractThe work reported
Page 8 and 9: 101 IntroductionProjects are increa
Page 10: collection and interpretation of th
Page 13 and 14: 15normative agendas, in other words
Page 15 and 16: 17world of projects. The choice of
Page 17 and 18: 19Figure 3 Sources and dataThe proj
Page 19 and 20: 21In line with Flyvbjerg (2006b), t
Page 21 and 22: 233 Concepts and constructs of thep
Page 23 and 24: 25by most BOKs and textbooks in pro
Page 25 and 26: 274 Main topics covered by the rese
Page 27 and 28: 294.2 Empirical indications from ex
Page 29 and 30: 31Budget proposed by the Norwegian
Page 31 and 32: 3330 %Difference (%) from the propo
Page 33 and 34: 3520 00018 000Cost development from
Page 35: 37In paper 9 (Magnussen 2009a) an a
Page 39 and 40: 41estimates must be implemented at
Page 41 and 42: 43Klakegg, Ole Jonny, Terry William
Page 43 and 44: 45List of government documents 11Fi
Page 45 and 46: 47Part 2 - Papers1. Magnussen, Ole
Page 47 and 48: Paper 1Magnussen, Ole Morten, and K
Page 49 and 50: AbstractCost overruns and delays ar
Page 51 and 52: Cost effectiveness considerations:
Page 53 and 54: demonstrates another fundamental is
Page 55 and 56: Figure 1 The Extended Quality Assur
Page 57 and 58: Expected effects of the revised qua
Page 59 and 60: ReferencesBerg, Peder, Kilde, Halva
Page 61 and 62: International Journal of Project Ma
Page 63 and 64: O.M. Magnussen, N.O.E. Olsson / Int
Page 69 and 70: Paper 3Magnussen, Ole M., and Nils
Page 71 and 72: MANAGING THE FRONT-END OF PROJECTS:
Page 73 and 74: Olsson, Samset, Austeng and Lädre
Page 75 and 76: 1995; Packendorff, 1995), mainly cr
Page 77 and 78: to a better way of managing the fro
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1 Basic structure of the ind
Page 81 and 82: from empirical investigations has b
Page 83 and 84: among organizations, not individual
Page 85 and 86: actors, the relationships are repro
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the network approach has been used
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established based on the views of i
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IHFJKGAELDMBCA - The focal projectB
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the NDEA. The communication strateg
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Directorate for Cultural Heritage (
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the project. The basic activity was
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assumed to be more important than o
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Another interesting observation was
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REFERENCESEngwall, Mats. 2003. No p
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Söderlund, Jonas. 2002. On the dev
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Flexibility at Different Stages in
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Reproduced with permission of the c
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Paper 5Olsson, Nils O. E., and Ole
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PAPERSGovernance Frameworks for Pub
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supporting setting of and achieving
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The study proceeded as follows:•
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y the Chief of Defence Materiel, he
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(within MoD but independent of thep
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Norway U.K. (MoD) U.K. (OGC)Charact
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from the external consultants was s
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governance. International StudiesRe
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Paper 7Williams, Terry, Ole Jonny K
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The development of the frameworksUK
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notable characteristic of the Norwe
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Office to the National Audit Office
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highly complex and changing decisio
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ARTICLE IN PRESSAvailable online at
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ARTICLE IN PRESST. Williams et al.
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Paper submitted to the Internationa
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One constraint is that actual costs
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In other words, the QA scheme is a
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author, there apparently are no stu
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20,0 %15,0 %10,0 %5,0 %0,0 %P50 est
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The pre-eminent result is that the
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Results from the analysis of the de
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more fundamental assessments of pro
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Paper 10Magnussen, Ole M. 2009. Exp
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Explaining cost estimate difference
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changes and external factors. Facto
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30 %Difference (%) from the propose
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Table 2 Areas associated with expla
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agency. In this case, the observed
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ReferencesFlyvbjerg, B., Holm, M.K.
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