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40consultants prior to the decision to build, the cost reductions in actual outcomes are, as indicatedin paper 8 (Magnussen (2009a)), negligible if the whole picture of the cost development isconsidered. This shows that the most crucial decisions take place early in the project life cycle.Consequently, a contribution of this work to practical planning is that it demonstrates that anyresponse aimed at affecting the accuracy of estimates must be implemented at an early stage inthe project life cycle.However, the search for explanations of differences in estimates has shown that a quantitativecomparison of estimates could turn out to be a misleading simplification in the examination ofhow up-front assessment and quality assurance may influence planning. The study, which aimedat making use of the ample contextual information available, illustrated that projects may beaffected even if this is not reflected in changes to cost estimates. Important, though, was that anattempt was made to shed light on possible answers to the detailed level questions by using casestudies. It was shown that the impact of the QA2 was less significant in the two analysed cases,described in greater detail in paper 7 by Williams, Klakegg, Magnussen and Glasspool (2008).However, one observation illustrated aspects of the issue. The process of QA2 gave reassurancethat the project was well planned, so a key benefit of the procedure was legitimating the project,and reassuring the project owner.The selected aim to influence more fundamental issues connected to the project is of increasingmounting concern at the introduction of a particular approach. In paper 1, Magnussen andSamset (2005) show that the Quality Assurance 1 (QA1) is established to achieve substantialimprovements of project performance by analyzing project concepts, not just to be a specifiedalternative, as it is in the QA2. Its purpose is to identify the most adequate project based onrelevant needs and priorities. In paper 4, Olsson and Magnussen (2007) assert that the QA1clearly includes elements from the social science tradition. The quality assurance regime can beseen as an attempt to combine optimal solutions from two different approaches at differentstages of the project life cycle. In the early stages of development, social science approaches areemployed, and whenever the emphasis is on the implementation of a specified alternative,engineering approaches are used. It should be underlined that due to lack of data, inquiriesspecifically involving the QA1 were not addressed. This is an important area that requires moreresearch.This research represents a first, small step in an evolving area of study, so some thoughts on theway forward are appropriate. First, I argue, due to the diverse contextual backgrounds of theprojects involved, further studies may benefit from segmentation of data. The segmentationmight be based on a number of parameters, but the most amenable are perhaps project type, size,and complexity. In this way, factors not observable in the data presented in this thesis mayemerge and shed light on important unanswered questions. Second, changes in the set-up of themethodologies applied may also be required, such as a more extensive use of methods such as indepthinterviews with actors involved to better capture essential contextual information. Anotherway of approaching may be to carefully look at more individual cases. In this manner, even moreimportant questions might arise, and may persuade us to view issues from other perspectives.Finally, a shift of focus from efficiency to effectiveness issues is crucial, so that the influence ofmore principal aims of improvement measures related to feasibility and sustainability of projectsmay be examined.Overall, I believe that the work presented in this thesis has provided some useful insights andlessons. In summary, I feel that the main contribution from this work is that a measureintroduced in the front-end to reduce the problem of cost overrun has for the first time beenstudied empirically. The principal finding is that any action aimed at affecting the accuracy of
41estimates must be implemented at an early stage in the project life cycle. This is the conclusion ofempirical investigations of immediate outputs of the projects, which undoubtedly hasimplications for decision making regarding large public investments. At the more theoreticallevel, it should be underlined that the implications of this work go beyond what examinations ofefficiency can provide. A detailed description of the project approval process, its theoreticalunderpinnings, embedded principles, and how it is carried out in practice also has been carriedout. One of its conclusions is that it is necessary to understand how projects can be successfullyaligned with the desired direction. The initial choice of project concept is of crucial importance.This represents the pivotal decision made during the lifetime of a project, which is likely to havethe largest impact on long-term success or failure. This can be said to be the main theoreticalcontribution of the work.Hopefully, in this research, I have arrived at answers that may prove useful in the management oflarge projects. Yet, inevitably, due to the complex and interrelated issues involved in the researchabout projects and their management, the interpretation of many facts is still going to remainhighly uncertain. The researcher, obviously unable to offer definitive answers, should do littlemore than probe previous assumptions and to push forward the boundaries of knowledge.
Page 1 and 2: 3PrefaceThe research presented in t
Page 3 and 4: 5Table of contentsPART 1 ..........
Page 5 and 6: 7Summary/abstractThe work reported
Page 8 and 9: 101 IntroductionProjects are increa
Page 10: collection and interpretation of th
Page 13 and 14: 15normative agendas, in other words
Page 15 and 16: 17world of projects. The choice of
Page 17 and 18: 19Figure 3 Sources and dataThe proj
Page 19 and 20: 21In line with Flyvbjerg (2006b), t
Page 21 and 22: 233 Concepts and constructs of thep
Page 23 and 24: 25by most BOKs and textbooks in pro
Page 25 and 26: 274 Main topics covered by the rese
Page 27 and 28: 294.2 Empirical indications from ex
Page 29 and 30: 31Budget proposed by the Norwegian
Page 31 and 32: 3330 %Difference (%) from the propo
Page 33 and 34: 3520 00018 000Cost development from
Page 35 and 36: 37In paper 9 (Magnussen 2009a) an a
Page 37: 395 Conclusions and directions for
Page 41 and 42: 43Klakegg, Ole Jonny, Terry William
Page 43 and 44: 45List of government documents 11Fi
Page 45 and 46: 47Part 2 - Papers1. Magnussen, Ole
Page 47 and 48: Paper 1Magnussen, Ole Morten, and K
Page 49 and 50: AbstractCost overruns and delays ar
Page 51 and 52: Cost effectiveness considerations:
Page 53 and 54: demonstrates another fundamental is
Page 55 and 56: Figure 1 The Extended Quality Assur
Page 57 and 58: Expected effects of the revised qua
Page 59 and 60: ReferencesBerg, Peder, Kilde, Halva
Page 61 and 62: International Journal of Project Ma
Page 63 and 64: O.M. Magnussen, N.O.E. Olsson / Int
Page 69 and 70: Paper 3Magnussen, Ole M., and Nils
Page 71 and 72: MANAGING THE FRONT-END OF PROJECTS:
Page 73 and 74: Olsson, Samset, Austeng and Lädre
Page 75 and 76: 1995; Packendorff, 1995), mainly cr
Page 77 and 78: to a better way of managing the fro
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1 Basic structure of the ind
Page 81 and 82: from empirical investigations has b
Page 83 and 84: among organizations, not individual
Page 85 and 86: actors, the relationships are repro
Page 87 and 88: the network approach has been used
Page 89 and 90:
established based on the views of i
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IHFJKGAELDMBCA - The focal projectB
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the NDEA. The communication strateg
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Directorate for Cultural Heritage (
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the project. The basic activity was
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assumed to be more important than o
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Another interesting observation was
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REFERENCESEngwall, Mats. 2003. No p
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Söderlund, Jonas. 2002. On the dev
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Flexibility at Different Stages in
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Reproduced with permission of the c
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115:
Paper 5Olsson, Nils O. E., and Ole
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PAPERSGovernance Frameworks for Pub
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supporting setting of and achieving
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The study proceeded as follows:•
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y the Chief of Defence Materiel, he
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(within MoD but independent of thep
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Norway U.K. (MoD) U.K. (OGC)Charact
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from the external consultants was s
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governance. International StudiesRe
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Paper 7Williams, Terry, Ole Jonny K
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The development of the frameworksUK
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notable characteristic of the Norwe
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Office to the National Audit Office
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highly complex and changing decisio
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ARTICLE IN PRESSAvailable online at
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ARTICLE IN PRESST. Williams et al.
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Page 162 and 163:
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Paper submitted to the Internationa
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One constraint is that actual costs
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In other words, the QA scheme is a
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author, there apparently are no stu
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20,0 %15,0 %10,0 %5,0 %0,0 %P50 est
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The pre-eminent result is that the
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Results from the analysis of the de
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more fundamental assessments of pro
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Paper 10Magnussen, Ole M. 2009. Exp
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Explaining cost estimate difference
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changes and external factors. Facto
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30 %Difference (%) from the propose
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Table 2 Areas associated with expla
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agency. In this case, the observed
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ReferencesFlyvbjerg, B., Holm, M.K.
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