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DefinitionsCountry groups in the analytical members of the Organisation for Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerframeworkof this Report are as Economic Cooperation and De- land, the United Kingdom, thefollows: velopment, apart from Greece, United States and the Commission0 Developing countries are di- Portugal, SpainandTurkey, which of the European Community.vided, on the basis of 1978 gross are included among the middlenationalproduct (GNP) per person, income developing countries. The Organization of Petroleum Exinto:low-income countries, with a GNP * Centrally planned economies porting Countries (OPEC) comprisesper person of US$360 and below; comprise Albania, Bulgaria, China, Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia,and middle-income countries, with a Cuba, Czechoslovakia, the German Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria,GNP per person above US$360. Democratic Republic, Hungary, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UnitedThe countries in each group are the Democratic Republic of Korea, Arab Emirates and Venezuela.shown in the tables of the World Mongolia, Poland, Romania andDevelopment Indicators beginning the USSR. Economic and demographic terms areon page 105.defined in the technical notes to* Oil-exporting developing coun- Organisation for Economic Coopera- the World Development Indicatorstries comprise Algeria, Angola, tion and Development (OECD) mem- on pages 158 through 165.Bahrain, Bolivia, Brunei, Congo, bers are Australia, Austria, Belgium,Ecuador, Egypt, Gabon, Indo- Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Billion is 1,000 million.nesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, the Federal Republic of Germany,Oman, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Tonnes are metric tons (1,000Tunisia, Venezuela and Zaire. Japan, Luxembourg, the Nether- kilograms).* Capital-surplus oil exporters lands, New Zealand, Norway,comprise Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzer- Growth rates are in real terms un-Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United land, Turkey, the United King- less otherwise stated.Arab Emirates.dom and the United States.* Oil-importing developing coun- The OECD Development As- Symbols used in the text tables aretries comprise developing countries sistance Committee (DAC) com- as follows:not classified as oil-exporting de- prises Australia, Austria, Belgium, . . Not available.veloping countries or capital- Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, (.) Lessthanhalftheunitshown.surplus oil exporters. the Federal Republic of Germany, n.a. Not applicable.* Industrialized countries are the Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Newviii
1 IntroductionDeveloping countries start the intended to illustrate the likely from the importance of the roledecade facing two major challenges. outcome of different policies, rather of industrialized countries. Chap-First, they must strive to continue than to provide precise forecasts. ter 3 examines three of the ecotheirsocial and economic devel- Two sets of projections are pre- nomic links that bind the worldopment in an intemational climate sented in Chapter 2, based on together-trade, energy and capithatLooks less helpful than it differing growth rates in the indus- tal flows-and analyzes the fundida decade-or even a year-ago. trial world and policy responses damental issues in these areas, is-Second, they must tackle the in developing countries. This year sues that must be resolved chieflyplighl of the 800 million people the analysis has been extended to by the industrialized countries.living in absolute poverty, who provide separate estimates for oil- Because they take about 65 perhavebenefited much too little from importing and oil-exporting devel- cent of developing country exports,past progress. This Report examines oping countries, as well as by their growth rates and trade polisomeof the difficulties and pros- region and income level. cies largely determine how muchpects in both areas, looking as far The analysis indicates that world the developing countries can exaheadas 2000, but paying particular economic growth will be sluggish port. Because they account forattent.on to the next 5 to 10 years. during the next few years, as oil- more than half of world energyOne of its central themes is the importing countries reduce their consumption, it is their conservaimportanceof people in develop- current account deficits and adapt tion (or lack of it) that has thement. Adam Smith's observation to higher energy costs. But the biggest impact. And most of thethat the prosperity of a nation is policies adopted during the adjust- foreign capital that the developingdeternined mainly "by the skill, ment period will have some effect countries need must come throughdexterity, and judgment with on growth then-and even more the industrial world's banks orwhich its labor is generally applied" on the recovery expected after 1985. directly from its aid programs.has lost none of its truth. In the International finance will play adifficuLt economic conditions of the crucial role in the 1980s: unless The role of human developmentpast six years, as in earlier years, the developing (and other oilmostof the fastest-growing devel- importing) countries can fund their The past three decades have seenoping countries without oil have large projected balance-of-payments some impressive changes in thehad well-educated populations. deficits, output and growth will be lives of people in the developingBetter health and more education seriously affected. The domestic world. Average incomes havecan also help the poorest people policies of developing countries doubled. Average life expectancyclimb out of their poverty. will also be crucial: the more has increased from 42 to 54 years.efficiently they use their imports, The proportion of adults who areThe economic outlook their investments, and their energy literate has risen from about 30suppLies, and the more they increase percent to more than 50 percent.As in the two previous World their saving and investment, the There has been a significant closingDevelopment Reports, economic projec- faster will be their growth. The of the gap between industrializedtions for the developing countries fate of poor people in developing and developing countries in lifehave been carried out, drawing on countries will likewise be decided expectancy, literacy and primarythe World Bank's analysis of what largely by domestic opportunities school enrollment.determines country and regional and policies. But there is still a long way togrowth. These projections are None of this, though, detracts go. More than three-quarters of a1
Page 1: t' 8 ~~~~ottoWorld Development Repo
Page 4 and 5: Oc 1980 by the International Bankfo
Page 6 and 7: ivThis report was prepared by a tea
Page 8 and 9: Text tables2.1 Summary of prospects
Page 12 and 13: illion people have barely enough fa
Page 14: in official aid and other capital a
Page 17 and 18: production and consumption; in- Tab
Page 19 and 20: measures can raise efficiency fairl
Page 21 and 22: adjustment; but the increases pro-
Page 23 and 24: dustrialized countries' GNP would T
Page 25 and 26: windfalls, some of their extra cont
Page 27 and 28: e done to increase the supplies Lat
Page 29 and 30: exchange-rate depreciation, by perc
Page 31 and 32: Table 3.2 World merchandise trade,
Page 33 and 34: * Inward-looking policies may exper
Page 35 and 36: inward-looking policies, with high
Page 37 and 38: cause individual banks or bank- Tab
Page 39 and 40: to GNP, of all large industrial na-
Page 41 and 42: in Chapter 2). Ways of increasing a
Page 43 and 44: 4 Poverty, growth and human develop
Page 45 and 46: expectancy was less than 50 years,
Page 47 and 48: population density (see page 39). e
Page 49 and 50: ably could not have been achieved c
Page 51 and 52: ution of income typically is less T
Page 53 and 54: Table 4.2 Irrigation and income, se
Page 55 and 56: ment strategies that assume that in
Page 57 and 58: average 40 percent drop out before
Page 59 and 60: this may be offset by shifts in the
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UNESCO concluded that the poorUnemp
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A typical finding showed the mean o
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Table5.6 Differences in life tend t
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are more expensive and less critica
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per hos pital and clinic, and to st
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peaks in farm work and widespreadin
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confined to particular places. In A
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Indonesia, Colombia and Chilehave r
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(which respond only gradually to cu
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Contraceptive technologyresearch in
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6 Implementing human development pr
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probably China-have managed Table 6
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percent of the development bud- dev
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members, too, as no bureaucraticRur
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Private costs of using public servi
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ut not teachers or health workers,
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7 Priorities and progress in region
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literacy and life expectancy); andF
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to establish the necessary admin-Fi
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Poverty Figure 7.5 South Asia: life
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and North Africa cover the spec- gr
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The high level of urbanization well
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Chaipter 8 Summary and conclusionsI
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is high, frequently well above that
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Stat.istical appendix to Part ITabl
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Table SA.6 Capital flows and debt o
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Montgomery survey administra- publi
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AnnexWorldDevelopmentIndicators
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Table 13. Balance of Payments and D
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IntroductionThe World Development I
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GNP per capitaAverage indexAverageo
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Average annual growth rate (percent
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Distribution of gross domestic prod
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Average annual growth rate (percent
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Distribution of gross domestic prod
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Distribution of value added (percen
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EnergyEnergyconsumptionAverage annu
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Merchandise tradeAverage annual gro
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Percentage share of merchandise exp
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Percentage share of merchandise imp
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Destination of merchandise exports
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Destination of manufactured exports
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Current accountbalance before Inter
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Public and publicly guaranteed medi
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External public debtoutstanding and
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Amount1981a 1982a 1983a 1984a 1985a
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Average annualHypotheticalgrowth of
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PercentageCrude Crude Percentage Pe
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Percentage ofpopulation ofworking a
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Percentage of urban population Numb
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Life Infant Childexpectancy mortali
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PercentageDaily calorie supplyPopul
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Number Numberenrolled in enrolled i
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Percentage share of household incom
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Average index Tables 4 and 5. Growt
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28 (minerals, crude fertilizers and
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continues to grow after replacement
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posttax income and conceptually tic
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-~~~ S-~~~~~ sEuropean Office:66, a
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