World Bank Document

number in this group in Colombia, and quality of attention receivedby age, 1980 for example, doubled between from parents and other adults in1950 and 1970; but because of a the first few years-and that isAge fertility decline that began in generally less in large families.[t 75-79 X the mid-1960s, it then increasedDeveloping 65-69 only slgtyin the 1970s-andthDevelopig_60-64 i_ Developed slightly ith19 s-andcountries countrieSl fell as a proportion of the totalf hRaising the incomes of the poor45-4940-44 < population. In South Korea, where Faster growth of average incomesl 3l02O-34 ii.., fertility has fallen steadily, the is essential to reducing absoluteI20-2415-19 number of school-age children has poverty, especially in low-income~~~~~~10-14-r-a ^5I9 stopped growing. countries, where half or more of141210 1 64 2 0 0 2 6 I 84101214 There are other effects apart from the people may be poor. But growthPersCet reducing pressure on the formal alone is not enough. This is partlya. Includeindustrialid countries, the USSR education system. Studies in because rising population isand Eastern Europe.developed countries (even those tending to swell the numbers incontrolling for socioeconomic absolute poverty even where theyclass) have shown that children are a diminishing share of thecountries the ratio is about a in smaller families tend to be population, and partly because inquarter (see Figure 4.3). In the larger, more intelligent, and to many developing countries thereFederal Republic of Germany and have a longer life expectancy. is a large gap between averagethe Soviet Union, for example, When high fertility is associated incomes and the incomes of poorerthere are two people of working with repeated and closely spaced groups. It is also because (exceptage for every one who is too young pregnancies, the mother's health at fairly high average incomes)or old to work; in Mexico and can suffer; the results-low birth growth tends to widen this gap.Nigeria, there is only one. weight and early weaning-then This pattern is described by the* Slower growth of the labor damage the child's health. In the Kuznets curve, which shows thatforce would mean that less invest- Colombian town of Candelaria, the incomes of the poorest 40ment, hence a smaller sacrifice of for example, the likelihood of percent of the population normallyconsumption, would be needed to malnutrition among preschool grow more slowly than the averagemaintain or increase the amount children in low-income families until income per person reachesof capital per worker. In most de- was directly related to how many a range of $700 to $900 (see Figureveloping countries the working- brothers and sisters they had. 4.4). Beyond this range, the incomesage population has roughly doubled Furthermore, a child's capacity to of poorer groups tend to grow fasterin the past 25 years. At its current learn is affected by the amount than the average. Thus the distrigrowthrate it will double again inthe next 25 years. In Japan andFrance, by contrast, the workingagepopulation would at its present Figure 4.4 Income of poorest groupsgrowth rate take about 90 years to Share of bott-o 40 per-en t is GNP Percenidouble. 24 2* Human resources could be 22developed more effectively. About 2025 percent of the population of a 18 ~ ~ ~ pitypical developing country is of laprimary-school age, compared with 1615 percent in developed countries. 14 Ttili p wAs a result, for any given amount 12 *.acsaRaaeaeicneof spending on education, a devel- 10 = int ise inoping country has to have either s n sa lower enrollment rate or lower 8 jS / caziIspending per child enrolled. One o 1000 2000 3000 100 500 1000 1500 2000 2500of the earliest economic effects of GNPper pers.. (978 dolars,) GNP per pe-ro (1978 doll-rs)declining fertility is a (relatively) a. Dates as-i Table 24, WorldDevelopent Indicators.smaller school-age group. The40