working, is more influenced by the Table 5.3 Farmer education it would be short-sighted to leavelevel of the individual's schooling and farmer productivity a large part of the next generationthan by any other factor. But there Estimated percentage of farmers illiterate.are also many studies of the directincreaseannual farm Gutput EMPLOYEES.effect of schooling on individualThe second type ofdue to four yearsEproductivity and earnings, which Study of primary education study relates the educational levelsproductivity anh earmngs, wohc Study Wrather than none of individuals to their wages andare examined are examined here under two heads W/\ith complementary inputs' salaries. aais If feucto education affects fet theh-those relating to the self-employed Brazil (Garibaldi), 1970 18.4and those relating to employees. Brazil (Resende), 1969 4.0 capacity to learn, innovate andBrazil (Taquari), 1970 22.1 adapt, its effects should be par-Brazil (Vicosa), 1969 9.3 ticularly important for employeesTHE 5ELF-EMPLOYED. 1The hy- Colombia (Chinchina),potheses are straightforward: that 1969 -0.8 doing nonroutine or changingColombia (Espinal), 1969 24.4 tasks. For employees in modernprimary education helps people to Kenya, 1971-72 6.9obtain and evaluate information Malaysia, 1973 20.4 enterprises, primary education alsoabout improved techniques and Nepal (wheat), 1968-69 20.4 promotes disciplined work habitsabout Improved techniques and South Korea, 1973 9.1 and responsiveness to furthernew opportunities, to keep records Average (unweighted) 13.2 training, as well as offering the adactivitiesand the risks of future Without complementary inputsvantages of literacy and numeracy.Brazil (Candelaria), 1970 10.8ones. More generally,Studies of the rateprimaryof return toBrazil (Conceicao deschooling is a training in how to Castelo), 1969 -3.6learn, an experience in self- Brazil (Guarani), 1970 6.0 mainly with relatively large urbanBrazil (Paracatu), 1969 -7.2 enterprises; but a few have indisciplineand in working for Colombia (Malaga), 1969 12.4 edrsmal busines and i-longer-term goals. Colombia (Moniquira), cluded small businesses and agri-1969 12.5 cultural workers. All find thatMost of the empirical evidence Greece, 1963 25.9comes from agriculture-studiescomparing the productivity, yieldsAverage (unweighted) 8.1 eamrings. And when the extra ear-erig.Adwe h xr anandandinnovativeunnshoovedactivityfarmers.of schooledNotllNo information on availabilityof complementary inputsingsresultingtion arefromweighed againstprimary educa-its costs,thes studischontdfaroleds a uatly t Average of eight high rates of return are consistentlythese studies controlled adequately stde studies ,uvegtd (unweighted) 2\ 6L 6.3 found. Similar studies for secondaryfor other influences, particularly a. Improved seeds, irrigation, transport and higher education find lower,wealth; but many did (for example, to markets and so on. though nonetheless substantial,by including farm size as a proxyreturns (see Table 5.4 and box).for wealth).The general weight of the evi- pends on the cost of achieving Investment priorities in educationdence (see Table 5.3) lends strong them. It is thus significant thatand consistent support to the studies that went on to compare Primary education is of particularhypotheses-and is particularly the increase in production result- importance in overcoming absolutecompelling because the studies ing from education with the costs poverty. But secondary, higher,measure productivity directly, not of that education (for example, in vocational and adult educationthrough wages. Where the com- Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) and training also have major rolesplementary inputs required for found rates of return comparing to play.improved farming techniques were very favorably with investment inavailable, the annual output of a other sectors. It is, of course, im- PRIMARY EDUCATION. In counfarmerwho had completed four possible to predict which places tries where it is far from universal,years of primary schooling was will offer scope for improved farm- the case for increasing the proporonaverage 13.2 percent more than ing techniques in 10 years' time, tion of children who complete prionewho had not been to school. when children leave school. In mary education is strong. WhileAs expected, where complementary some, effects on farm productivity there have been high economicinputs were not available, the in- may be low. But given past progress returns in the past, it has beencrease in output resulting from in agricultural research, it is prob- suggested that the rate of return toadditional schooling was on aver- able that some places with stagnant primary schooling (especially inage smaller-but still substantial. technology now will offer greatly certain jobs) may decline as theWhether these increases should improved possibilities. Thus, on proportion of the labor force withbe regarded as large or small de- growth as well as equity grounds, primary education increases. But48
this may be offset by shifts in the And in the few countries where rural areas, girls, and the poorestpattern of production toward more studies have been done at differ- urban boys. In general, primaryskill-intensive goods. In Table 5.4 ent periods, rates of return have education tends to be redistributherates of return to primary usually declined, but only mildly. tive toward the poor (see Tableeducation in countries with adult There are also favorable effects 5.5). In contrast, public expendiliteracyrates above 50 percent, on equity. As primary education ture on secondary and higherwhile somewhat below those in becomes more widespread, addi- education tends to redistributecountries with adult literacy below tional spending will be increas- income from poor to rich, since50 percent, are still strikingly high. ingly concentrated on backward children of poor parents havecomparatively little opportunityTable 5.4 Rates of return to education(percent)to benefit from it.Primary education, especially ofNumber ofCountry group Primary Secondary Higher countriesgirls, has favorable effects on thenext generation's health, fertilityAll developing countries 24.2 15.4 12.3 30 and education (see box overleaf).Low iacome/adult literacyFinally, it enriches peoples' lives.rate under 50 percent, 27.3 17.2 12.1 11Middle income/adult literacyMany would regard this as sufficirateover 50 percent 22.2 14.3 12.4 19 ent justification for universal pri-Industrialized countries .. 10.0 9.1 14 mary education, independent ofNote: In all cases, the figures are "social" rates of return: the costs include forgone earnings its other benefits.(what the students could have earned had they not been in school) as well as both publicand private outlays; the benefits are measured by income before tax. (The "private"returns to individuals exclude public costs and taxes, and are usually larger.) The studies SECONDARY AND HIGHER EDUCATION.refer to various years between 1957 and 1978, mainly in the latter half of the period. Renewed emphasis on the impora.In this sample of 30 developing countries, those countries with low incomes also had tance of primary education, andliteracy rates below 50 percent (at the time the studies were done). All the middle-income its high returns relative to seccountrieshad literacy rates above 50 percent.ondary and higher education,should not start the pendulumswinging too far in the other di-Schooling, screening and productivityrection. High levels of knowledgeare necessary for many people whoThe interpretation of rates of return thus that relative wages are not such serve the poor, both directly asto education-especially secondary and imperfect indicators of productivity, as teachers, health workers and agrihighereducation-is still controversial. It those who have concentrated on their cultural extension workers, andhas often been argued that educational institutional characteristics and determiqualif.cationsare simply a "screening" nants have supposed. In developed indirectly as researchers, technidevice,signaling an individual's produc- countries the relative wages of different cians, managers and administrators.tive qualities to an employer without occupations have gradually but steadily While their skills must be developedactually enhancing them. In some changed in response to increases in the to a considerable extent throughdeveloping countries, moreover, the supply of educated labor. That the samepublic sector-and some heavily protected process operates even in the public sector practhcal experience and i otherparts of the private sector-are the main in developing countries is suggested, for ways, there is for some purposesemployers of university and even second- example, by the fact that the relative no better or cheaper substitute forary-school graduates: it has been sug- salaries of teachers and civil servants the formal disciplines of convengestedthat the salaries they pay are often are much higher in Africa, where edu- tional schooling. Even allowing forartificially inflated and bear little relation cated manpower is much scarcer, thanto relative productivity; and that educa- in Asia, where it is more abundant. doubts about the estimated ratestional requirements serve merely to ration The conventional economic interpre- of return to secondary and higheraccess to these inflated salaries. In both tation of the association between school- education, and for the existencecases, earnings differences associated ing and wages is further strengthened by of some educated unemploymentwith different levels of education would a few studies showing that more educated (see box on next page), there areoverstate the effect of education on workers have increased output in spedficproductivity. manufacturing industries, by evidence unquestonably severe shortagesOn the other side, it is argued that of substantial returns to education even of skilled people in many developingschool "screening" is by no means all in agriculture and other traditional small- countries.wasteful and is preferable to such other scale activities, where one would expect More economical ways of proscreeningmethods as caste or family educational credentials to be much less ducing skilled people need to beconnections. -It is also argued that labor important, and by the macroeconomic found. First, greater use of in-careermarkets are not so monopolistic, and evidence discussed in the box on page 38. and on-th trater shof beon-the-job training should be9and49
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t' 8 ~~~~ottoWorld Development Repo
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Oc 1980 by the International Bankfo
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ivThis report was prepared by a tea
- Page 8 and 9: Text tables2.1 Summary of prospects
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Stat.istical appendix to Part ITabl
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Table SA.6 Capital flows and debt o
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Montgomery survey administra- publi
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AnnexWorldDevelopmentIndicators
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Table 13. Balance of Payments and D
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IntroductionThe World Development I
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GNP per capitaAverage indexAverageo
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Average annual growth rate (percent
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Distribution of gross domestic prod
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Average annual growth rate (percent
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Distribution of gross domestic prod
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Distribution of value added (percen
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EnergyEnergyconsumptionAverage annu
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Merchandise tradeAverage annual gro
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Percentage share of merchandise exp
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Percentage share of merchandise imp
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Destination of merchandise exports
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Destination of manufactured exports
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Current accountbalance before Inter
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Public and publicly guaranteed medi
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External public debtoutstanding and
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Amount1981a 1982a 1983a 1984a 1985a
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Average annualHypotheticalgrowth of
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PercentageCrude Crude Percentage Pe
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Percentage ofpopulation ofworking a
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Percentage of urban population Numb
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Life Infant Childexpectancy mortali
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PercentageDaily calorie supplyPopul
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Number Numberenrolled in enrolled i
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Percentage share of household incom
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Average index Tables 4 and 5. Growt
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28 (minerals, crude fertilizers and
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continues to grow after replacement
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posttax income and conceptually tic
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