World Bank Document

dustrialized countries' GNP would Table 2.9 Developing countries' GNP per person, 1980-2000be essential; still higher aid flows- (1977 dollars)approaching the 0.7 percent UN 1985 8990 2000target--would raise growth further Low High Low High Faster Low High Fasterand help to reduce disparities be- Country group 1980 case case case case growth case case growthtween low- and middle-income Low-incomecountries. In addition, economic oil importers 168 177 183 188 206 218 215 261 311Middle-incomemanagement would have to improve oil importers 1,275 1,408 1,448 1,585 1,719 1,813 2,009 2,423 2,843considerably. International efforts Oil exporters 753 873 896 1,012 1,058 1,085 1,360 1,475 1,591to encourage the steps required to All developingcountriesincrease growth-including those615 679 702 761 825 866 955 1,139 1,320now being considered as part ofthe International Development 2.9 shows what would happen to million. The difference-reducingStrategy of the United Nations- GNP per person if the faster (than the number of people in povertyare therefore very much to be High-case) growth mentioned above by between 60 million and 190welcomed. could be achieved. Developing- million during the next 10 yearscountrygrowth of about 1.9 per- is a powerful reminder of the ben-Broader implications of the cent above the Low case (and efits of higher growth. And as disprojections0.9 percent above the High case)would start in 1985 and be maincussedin Chapters 4 and 5, growthin incomes is also vital for betterSince World Development Report, tained until the end of the century. nutrition, health and education, as1979 was published, there have The difference in growth may not well as for lower fertility.been major attempts to advance seem large, but by 1990 for allthinkinig and policies on develop- developing countries it makes a The challenge of the decadement. The OECD study Facing the difference of more than a seventh.Future (Interfutures) was a result By the end of the century, average The world will reap great benefitsof three years' research on pros- real incomes with the faster growth from rapid growth. Without it,pects f'or the global economy. The would be almost two-fifths above hundreds of millions of very poorIndependent Commission on Inter- those in the Low case and one- people will live and die with littlenational Development Issues (the sixth above those in the High. or no improvement in their lot.Brandt Commission) published its And it is only with this sharp Many developing countries willfindings in North-South: A Program acceleration that growth of in- find it hard to maintain politicalfor Survival, which called for bold come per person in developing stability.reforms to avoid an otherwise countries would match that of the The developing countries facegrave future for international eco- industrial countries. formidable obstacles on the waynomic and political relations. The What does this growth mean to rapid growth-many of whichanalysis of the present Report for people's lives? The same they will have to overcome themstronglyendorses the Commis- method for estimating the link selves. But through their policiession's emphasis on the interdepen- between income growth and poverty on trade, aid and other capital flows,dence-through trade, energy and reduction used in the previous two the industrialized countries andcapital flows-of all countries, as World Development Reports suggests the capital-surplus oil exporterswell as its emphasis on the impor- the following effects. In 1980 the have a striking impact on howtance cf renewed efforts to reduce number of people with incomes much the developing countries canworldwide poverty. below the absolute poverty line is accomplish. Much will depend onThere has been continuing, in- approximately 780 million. With the degree of international cooperatenseclebate over an appropriate the Low case this number would tion-which at present threatensstrategy for the Third Develop- actually increase over the next to fall short of what is needed.ment Decade. But all agree on the decade to 800 million; in the High For poverty, growth and politicalneed to raise the growth of the case it would fall slightly, to 720 stability, the implications of thedeveloping countries. million. If it were possible to achieve Low case-itself not the worst pos-The advantages of higher growth the faster growth mentioned, the sible outcome -show that theare striking. To illustrate, Table number could fall sharply-to 590 world can ill afford such failures.13