<strong>The</strong> Bulletin 工 商 月 刊 September 2012 29
| Economic Insights 經 濟 透 視 |Better Than Expected較 預 期 佳Global trade looks to be on shaky legs, but we have had a better run in the past two yearsthan most <strong>of</strong> the rest <strong>of</strong> the world, writes David O’Rear全 球 貿 易 似 乎 動 盪 不 穩 , 但 我 們 過 去 兩 年 的 表 現 卻 比 全 球 大 部 分 地 區 為 佳 歐 大 衛<strong>Hong</strong> <strong>Kong</strong>’s second quarter real economic growth camein at a better-than-expected 1.1% rise over a year earlier,up from a revised +0.7% in January-March. On aquarterly basis, however, Q-2 was the second straight period <strong>of</strong>contraction, which some believe signals a recession. <strong>The</strong> firstgraph shows progress over 12 months, which are the numbersmost people will find familiar.Are we in recession? <strong>The</strong>re isn’t any exact definition, andthe most common one – two consecutive quarters <strong>of</strong> real contraction– isn’t necessarily a year-on-year measurement. But,<strong>The</strong> odds are that our more than 100,000international trading companies are hurtingsales to the U.S., ASEAN and Japan. In the first half, China’sexports were up 9.2% and imports 6.8%, although the paceslowed toward mid-year.In short, it wasn’t our fault. Domestic demand, the combination<strong>of</strong> local consumption and investment, rose nearly 4%in the first half <strong>of</strong> the year, although at a modest 2.7% in thesecond quarter. Capital investment, which defied the odds byrising 12.9% in Q-1, slowed to a still-respectable 5.7% pace inQ-2. Households also did their part, boosting consumption3.7% in the second quarter, down from 6.5% in the early part<strong>of</strong> the year. <strong>The</strong> last chart shows the two-speed nature <strong>of</strong> oureconomy.Nevertheless, we have had a better run in the past two yearsthan most <strong>of</strong> the rest <strong>of</strong> the world, and better than our ownrecord during the North Atlantic Financial Crisis. We are out<strong>of</strong> deflation once again, the economy is still moving forward(as compared to last year) and local spending is surprisinglystrong.given the overwhelming importance <strong>of</strong> trade in our economy,and the sad state <strong>of</strong> global demand, the odds are that our morethan 100,000 international trading companies are hurting.Exports and imports have both been sluggish throughoutthe year, falling a combined 1.2% from first-half <strong>of</strong> 2011. Earningsfrom services exports slowed from 2.9% in Q-1 to 2.1% inthe latest quarter, whereas spending on importer intangiblesslowed by more than half, from 3.5% to 1.5%.In April-June, we ran our first quarterly goods-and-servicedtrade deficit in eight years. Global trade is rapidly slowing (seethe second chart), and with it our economy. To put things inperspective, the HK$2.9 billion merchandise trade deficit wasjust under three times the total increase in GDP over threemonths, as calculated in real terms.<strong>The</strong> slowdown in exports from China to the EuropeanUnion in the first half was more than made up for by increasedDavid O’Rear is the <strong>Chamber</strong>’s Chief Economist. He can be reached at david@chamber.org.hk歐 大 衛 為 香 港 總 商 會 首 席 經 濟 師 , 電 郵 :david@chamber.org.hk。30 September 2012 <strong>The</strong> Bulletin 工 商 月 刊