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mANAGEmENT rEPOrT
outlook
a Economic growth expected to continue at slower pace
a Profit anticipated to grow in 2011 financial year
a Outlook remains clouded by uncertainty
According to estimates available at the time this report was
prepared, we anticipate that the recovery will continue at a
weaker pace in 2011. Growth projections for the industrialized
nations indicate that the economic recovery is flattening. For
this reason we expect overall economic development in the
2011 financial year will remain favorable but with Germany and
the Eurozone playing a lesser role along with the further recovery
of the global economy and the development of global trade.
eConoMiC oUtLooK
The following estimates regarding economic development in
2011 are based on the assumption of stable overall geopolitical
development.
Anticipated development [%] 2010 2011
GDP World + 4.0 q
World Trade + 13.5 q
GDP Eurozone + 1.7 q
GDP Germany + 3.6 q
q above previous year’s figure, e on previous year’s level, w below previous
year’s figure
Data for 2010 is based on information and estimates available on February
22, 2011.
The mixed economic picture of the global economy is likely to
remain unchanged in 2011. We anticipate that the recovery noted
in the industrialized nation will continue although growth rates
are estimated to decline. Structural problems, for example in the
real estate market, do not yet appear to be resolved. Concurrently,
pressures are likely to increase on governments to consolidate
their financial outlays. Export nations are likely to see their growth
slow as demand from emerging markets is anticipated to weaken.
It appears that some of the emerging countries intend to dampen
domestic growth to counter the threat of their economies
overheating and to keep economic expansion at a lower level.
risks are likely to be generated, in particular, by the continuing
uncertainty in the financial markets regarding the debt levels
and creditworthiness of a number of industrialized countries.
We anticipate that the global economy will continue to grow
further in 2011, albeit at a slower pace. The GDP figure in the
USA is likely to grow more slowly than in the previous year. The
same figure is anticipated to fall by half in Japan due to weaker
exports. Above all, emerging Asian countries are expected to
remain the driving forces behind the global economy. measures
taken in China to cool the economy will slow Chinese GDP growth
to about 9 %.
The economic recovery in the Eurozone is likely to flatten
out with major differences visible between the individual countries.
While Germany is expected to remain the European growth
locomotive, we believe that growth in France and Italy will
continue at current levels. Nonetheless, we anticipate that the
Eurozone will continue to be burdened by high levels of sovereign
debt owed by some of the member states. The key danger is
that manufacturing could shrink in these countries as the fiscal
influences are notably more restrictive and additional reforms
are still needed in light of their very weak ability to compete on
prices in international markets.
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