PDF Download - Deutsche Bahn AG

|
mANAGEmENT rEPOrT
BUSineSS environMent
Development of GDP reflects the
economic and financial crisis
Change in gross domestic product (GDP)
[%]
2010 2009
World 1) + 4.0 –2.3
USA +2.9 –2.6
China + 10.3 + 9.2
Japan + 4.0 – 6.3
Eurozone + 1.7 – 4.1
Germany + 3.6 – 4.7
1) Total selected industrial and emerging countries.
Data for 2009/2010 is based on information available on February 22, 2011.
Source: Consensus Forecasts, FERI, Federal Statistical Office, Germany.
The global economy recovered sharply in 2010 posting a 4 % rate
of growth. However, the pace slackened during the year under
review. Global trade returned to its pre-crisis level as it expanded
by 13.5 %. Economic performance noted in the emerging Asian
and Latin-American markets posted substantially higher growth
rates than the industrialized nations and were significantly higher
than their pre-crisis levels. Performance seen in rapidly growing
economies like China and India were key forces driving the
expansion of the global economy. The industrialized nations
were less dynamic as their recovery was more moderate. Although
their economic performance was significantly higher than in the
depths of the financial crisis, in most cases they had not yet
returned to their pre-crisis levels. The pace of economic growth
slowed towards the middle of 2010 due to the expiration of
economic stimulus programs and necessary measures taken by
governments to consolidate their budgets. The unchanged tense
situation in the financial and real estate sectors, rising levels of
government debt, and, in some cases, high unemployment
dampened economic growth in many industrialized countries.
The pace of economic growth in the USA slowed notably
after the first half of the year 2010 due to the expiration of the
government’s economic stimulus program and inventory buildup.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the USA rose by 3 %, mainly
as a result of increased consumer spending that represents
about 70 % of total economic output in the USA. The situation in
the labor market remained tense as the unemployment rate was
stuck at a historically high level due to sluggish job growth.
Capital expenditures, and especially spending for plant and
equipment, expanded strongly due to the effects of pent-up
demand and more attractive refinancing conditions offered to
companies. The foreign trade sector did not generate much
good news as imports grew somewhat larger than exports.
Asia retained its status as the fastest-growing region. A
more restrictive lending policy was imposed in China in the
second half of the year. Together with higher interest rates and
the cautious appreciation of the exchange rate in conjunction
with the expiry of economic stimulus programs, this move led
to the desired cooling-off of the Chinese economy. Exports
contracted during the course of the year due to weaker demand
in the USA. Despite the slower pace of growth, the Chinese GDP
remained at a high level as it grew by 10.3 %. Therefore China
replaced Japan as the second-largest economy in the world.
The recovery in Japan weakened in the second half of 2010
as economic growth slowed due to the higher yen, which in turn
stifled exports. Domestic demand contracted due to expiring
economic stimulus programs. Additionally higher unemployment
dampened consumer spending. Nevertheless, GDP exceeded
the previous year’s level by 4 %.
GDP rose by 1.7 % in the Eurozone. Growth was primarily
driven by the strong development of the German economy. The
recovery of Europe’s economy was primarily burdened by the
end of economic stimulus programs and government spending
cuts taken to consolidate their budgets. The low level of interest
rates favorably influenced consumer spending and capital
expenditures for plant and equipment. The French economy
recovered from the recession at a steady pace that, however,
was only average compared to the rebound seen in the other
Eurozone countries. Consumer spending expanded and posted
a positive contribution to growth although it was held back
by high unemployment and weak development of disposable
income. Although the level of gross capital expenditures recovered
moderately, it stayed in the year under review below the
2009 level. Exports mirrored the recovery of the global economy
and expanded substantially. Imports also rose significantly. A
clearly restrictive fiscal policy burdened economic recovery in
Great Britain along with the darkening situation in the foreign
trade sector. Despite the very moderate increase in real incomes,
and a barely improved situation in the labor market, private
spending rose as consumers brought forward purchases ahead
of the planned increase in the value-added tax rate starting at
the beginning of 2011.
7