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DEUTSCHE BAHN AG
We expect the contract logistics/SCm market to continue
developing strongly in 2011 as all of the important core countries
for global contract logistics are anticipated to post further
economic growth. Furthermore, favorable effects are expected
from an additional increase in the outsourcing rate in the
relevant industries.
Following the substantial increase in demand for train-path
seen during the year under review we anticipate that it will
stabilize at the previous year’s level in 2011. We expect the
number of station stops to increase further in 2011. The outlook
for additional rental business is also favorable due to the
improved overall conditions for the retail trade and the food
and beverage business. We believe that retail trade revenues in
Germany will rise slightly once again in 2011.
antiCipateD DeveLopMent oF tHe
proCUreMent anD CapitaL MarKetS
We do not anticipate that we will encounter any major bottlenecks
on the procurement side during the 2011 financial year. The
further development of energy prices will play a decisive role.
In general, we anticipate that energy and commodity prices
will rise.
Rising energy prices are likely
While the outlook for the year under review was marked by great
uncertainty, in the interim most of the market observers believe
that the crisis is over. It is expected that energy prices will also
rise in 2011 driven by unbroken robust growth in the emerging
markets as well as a stabilizing upswing in the industrialized
countries coupled with the central banks’ unchanged expansive
monetary policy.
International demand for crude oil and refinery products is
also likely to grow in 2011 and set a new record. Although the
current supply situation remains comfortable, the sustained and
continual growth of the emerging markets again raise the risk
of supply bottlenecks over the mid-term. As long as the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not
respond to dwindling stockpiles of oil by increasing their production,
the excessive levels of liquidity available in the global
financial markets make it more likely that we will again see prices
of USD 100/bbl and more.
Beyond these considerations, additional costs are anticipated
based on the overall conditions contained in the Federal Government’s
energy concept which foresees coupling the extended
lifetimes of nuclear power plants in Germany to additional costs
generated by the related tax on nuclear fuel elements (Brennelementesteuer)
plus required investments. These costs will
place an added burden on energy prices in 2011.
The spot market for gas is still in its early stages in most
parts of Europe and is heavily influenced by local conditions. In
total the supply situation for 2011 should be comfortable.
High level of sovereign bond issues expected
During the year under review the total volume of bonds issued
by sovereign states, banks and companies in the Eurozone
amounted to about € 1.7 trillion. We do not anticipate that the
volume of new issues will be lower in 2011. Based on the premise
of sluggish economic growth, we anticipate that not only will
maturing bonds with a nominal value of € 2.0 trillion have to be
refinanced in 2011, we also foresee a further increase in the level
of debt in the capital markets. In this context it may also be
expected that companies will tap the bond markets to a greater
extent than before in response to banks’ more restrictive lending
conditions.
Due to the unchanging high refinancing needs of Eurozone
countries, and assuming companies will have a relatively favorable
cash flow situation, we anticipate that the sovereign bond
share of the capital market will expand in 2011. We also anticipate
that companies with good credit ratings will continue to have
good access to the capital market in this environment, even if
economic growth should slow.
The anticipated further strong use of the capital markets
by sovereign and supranational issuers and the resulting greater
offer of debt instruments in the market should generate more
attractive yields for investors. The continuation of the economic
recovery should also lead to higher interest rates in the mid-term.
We therefore expect that long-term interest rates for financing
will be higher than in 2010, even for bonds issued by companies
with good credit ratings.