MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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CHANGES IN THE PATTERNS & CHARACTERISTICS OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY This section summarises the overarching patterns and characteristics of terrorist activity over the last 15 years in terms of targets, weapons used, tactics, lethality, ideology and location. In 2014 private citizens were targeted more than in previous years. 5 In 2014 private citizens were targeted eight per cent more frequently, which is the biggest proportional change in target type in the 15 years covered by this report. This reflects the increasing lethality of Boko Haram and ISIL which predominantly target private citizens. The types of weapons used differ between the groups, with Boko Haram mainly undertaking attacks with firearms and ISIL mainly using explosives. Whilst it continues to be the case that most terrorist attacks do not result in heavy loss of life, in 2014 the proportion of attacks that resulted in more than five deaths increased. The ratio of deaths per attack also increased with 2.4 deaths per attack in MENA and 6.7 deaths per attack in sub-Saharan Africa. The most lethal terrorism continues to be located in MENA, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Figure 9 shows that the primary target of most terrorist attacks has been private property and citizens. In 2014, 31 per cent of all attacks targeted private citizens, up six per cent from the previous year. This is the biggest proportional change in target type from any of the years covered in the report. Government targets were attacked 12 per cent of the time which is the lowest level since 2007. Police were also targeted slightly less in 2014. The two most lethal terrorist groups in 2014, Boko Haram and ISIL, overwhelmingly attack private citizens. FIGURE 9 TARGETS OF TERRORISM, 2000-2014 The primary target of terrorism has historically been private property and citizens. In 2014 this trend continued with a six per cent increase towards private citizens and their property. ATTACKS BY TARGET 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Religious Military Business Government Police Other Private citizens & property 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YEAR Source: START GTD GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Trends 34
FIGURE 10 NUMBER OF ATTACKS AND DEATHS FOR PRIVATE CITIZENS AND PROPERTY, 2000-2014 Private citizens have borne the brunt of the increase in deaths from terrorism. Deaths of private citizens increased 172 per cent between 2013 and 2014 compared to total deaths which rose 80 per cent. The two most lethal terrorist groups in 2014, Boko Haram and ISIL, overwhelmingly attack private citizens. 16,000 14,000 12,000 Attacks Deaths NUMBER 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2,005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YEAR Source: START GTD TABLE 2 DEATHS BY TARGET TYPE BETWEEN 2013 AND 2014 TARGETS 2013 2014 DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE Private citizens & property 5,647 15,380 9,734 172% Other 1,921 3,496 1,576 82% Military 1,439 2,530 1,091 76% Police 4,536 6,124 1,589 35% Business 1,604 1,983 379 24% Government 1,715 2,060 345 20% Religious 1,250 1,111 -139 -11% In 2014 there was a 172 per cent increase in private citizens as victims of terrorism. Over three quarters of this was due to three groups: Boko Haram, Fulani militants and ISIL. Private citizens constituted 38 per cent of deaths by Boko Haram in 2013, but this rose to 77 per cent in 2014. Similarly, Fulani militants killed 992 private citizens in 2014, up from 61 the previous year. This was 81 per cent of total deaths from terrorism by Fulani militants. ISIL has also increased its targeting of private citizens. ISIL killed 2,667 private citizens in 2014 which was 255 per cent higher than 2013. The three groups have different tactics. Boko Haram and the Fulani militants mainly use automatic weapons and have very high levels of fatalities per attack, whereas ISIL mainly target private citizens using explosives and bombings. Proportionally there was not a big change in the use of weapons with 58 per cent of attacks by explosives, bombs and dynamite, 28 per cent of attacks by firearms and 14 per cent of attacks by other weapons. In 2014 there were 854 more incidents where firearms were the main weapon, 1,626 more uses of explosives, bombs or dynamite and 928 cases with ‘other.’ Other involves mainly incendiary attacks and unknown weaponry. Unknown weaponry is predominantly kidnapping or hijacking, both of which are activities where the weaponry is incidental to the act. Attacks involving weaponry that fall under the category of ‘other’ increased proportionally from nine per cent in 2013 to 14 per cent in 2014. This was largely due to the increase in kidnappings. There were at least 269 more kidnappings in 2014 than the previous year. This reflects the increasing use of kidnappings by ISIL. In 2014 ISIL used kidnapping 677 per cent more than in 2013, with over 100 separate kidnappings often involving multiple people. For example, on 12 September GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Trends 35
Page 1 and 2: MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMP
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 ABOUT
Page 5 and 6: The report highlights the striking
Page 7 and 8: Terrorism in Western Countries 3 Th
Page 9 and 10: In addition to this baseline defini
Page 11 and 12: RESULTS The 2015 Global Terrorism I
Page 13 and 14: 40 Paraguay 4.094 50 Ethiopia 3.544
Page 15 and 16: DATE COUNTRY CITY FATALITIES / INJU
Page 17 and 18: TABLE 1 NUMBER OF YEARS A COUNTRY H
Page 19 and 20: INCREASING SPREAD OF TERRORISM One
Page 21 and 22: The country with the second largest
Page 23 and 24: AFGHANISTAN INCIDENTS 1,591 PROPERT
Page 25 and 26: PAKISTAN INCIDENTS 1,821 PROPERTY D
Page 27 and 28: INDIA INCIDENTS 763 DEAD 416 PROPER
Page 29 and 30: SOMALIA INCIDENTS DEAD 469 801 PROP
Page 31 and 32: THAILAND INCIDENTS DEAD 156 366 654
Page 33 and 34: FIGURE 8 CITIES WITH HIGHEST HOMICI
Page 35: TRENDS Over the last 15 years, more
Page 39 and 40: 2014, 50 Sunni Muslim civilians wer
Page 41 and 42: TERRORISM & ONGOING CONFLICT The fi
Page 43 and 44: THE FIVE MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROU
Page 45 and 46: convoy with members of the British
Page 47 and 48: FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ & SYRIA Th
Page 49 and 50: FIGURE 20 FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ
Page 51 and 52: TERRORISM IN WESTERN COUNTRIES Over
Page 53 and 54: TABLE 3 DEATHS FROM TERRORISM IN 20
Page 55 and 56: FIGURE 24 PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN W
Page 57 and 58: The largest category of lone wolf a
Page 59 and 60: FIGURE 28 DEATHS BY LONE WOLF TERRO
Page 61 and 62: TERRORISM & THE REFUGEE CRISIS The
Page 63 and 64: ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM The glo
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 34 THE COSTS OF TERRORISM, U
Page 67 and 68: FIGURE 35 COSTS OF TERRORISM COMPAR
Page 69 and 70: CORRELATES & DRIVERS OF TERRORISM I
Page 71 and 72: In OECD countries, socio-economic f
Page 73 and 74: THE LINK BETWEEN ONGOING CONFLICT &
Page 75 and 76: WHY INDIVIDUALS BECOME FOREIGN FIGH
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 42 SYSTEMS MAP OF GTI CORREL
Page 79 and 80: colonel in the intelligence service
Page 81 and 82: as Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, Sound
Page 83 and 84: statistics. As they were no longer
Page 85 and 86: MIGRATION, VIOLENT EXTREMISM AND TE
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community engagement and resilience
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The internet is just one of the way
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ANNEXES GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015
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GTI RANK COUNTRY 2015 GTI SCORE (OU
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ANNEX B 50 WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS
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ANNEX C GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX METH
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COMPARING THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATA
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ANNEX E ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM
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CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
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CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
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END NOTES 1. Global Terrorism Datab
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49. Sources for the foreign fighter
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NOV 2015 / IEP REPORT 36 ISBN 978-0
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MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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