MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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TERRORISM & ECONOMIC GROWTH Many countries which experience high levels of terrorism also have high levels of internal armed conflict. As a result it is difficult to separate the effects of terrorism on the economic performance of these countries from the economic impact of the conflict. 23 While economic growth and output can be negatively affected by acts of terrorism, there is not a uniform relationship across all countries. The literature defining the indirect economic effects of terrorism shows mixed and often contradictory results. Further, the effect terrorism has on output is significantly affected by government type, level of development and location. 24 There is no significant correlation between the GTI and GDP growth, with an r value of 0.09 over a ten year period. Analysis of FDI to terrorism shows a similarly weak statistical relationship with a correlation of r=0.18. The diverse nature of terrorism, the resilience of an economy and the level of security are all influential factors which can determine how costly terrorism is on a country’s economy. Research shows that the September 11 terrorist attacks had little effect on US FDI, 25 and that FDI in Spain actually increased by US$6 billion in 2005 following the 2004 Madrid train bombings. 26 Conversely, decreased FDI flows were attributed to terrorism in Greece and Spain in the 1980s and 1990s and were worth up to US$500 million to each nation. 27 Similarly, the effect of terrorism on FDI in Nigeria was substantial. It has been estimated that FDI flows dropped US$6.1 billion in 2010 due to Boko Haram. 28 This represents a decline of almost 30 per cent from the previous fiscal year. This is further supported by a recent study which found that the ten most affected countries had decreased GDP growth rates of between 0.51 and 0.8 per cent, while also reducing investment growth by 1.3 to 2 per cent. Using a similar methodology, IEP has calculated that Iraq has lost US$159 billion PPP since 2005. While terrorism does have an impact on economic performance, it is only visible in countries experiencing a large number of attacks. Terrorism often occurs in countries with limited institutional capacity or low levels of development. Under these circumstances, terrorist events can have a significant effect on output, investment and growth. FIGURE 37 IRAQ’S TOTAL ACCUMULATED LOSSES TO GDP FROM TERRORISM, 2005–2014 Terrorism is estimated to have cost Iraq a total of US$159 billion PPP since 2005. This is equivalent to 32 per cent of the country’s 2014 GDP. $700 $650 PPP US$ BILLIONS $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 Projected GDP if no terrorism Actual GDP PPP $159 billion $250 $200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IEP Calculations GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Economic Costs of Terrorism 66
CORRELATES & DRIVERS OF TERRORISM IEP has conducted a wide range of statistical tests comparing levels of terrorism to over 5,000 datasets, indices and attitudinal surveys to find the most significant factors linked to terrorist activity. The results show that terrorism is highly related to the levels of political violence as measured by the Political Terror Scale and ongoing conflict within a country. Around 55 per cent of all terrorist attacks between 1989 and 2014 occurred in countries that at the time were in a period of violent internal conflict. An additional 33 per cent occurred in countries that were involved in a civil conflict involving international powers. What this suggests is that in a majority of cases, terrorist activity is intrinsically linked to the broader safety and security environment of states. The grievances that drive these much larger conflicts also tend to drive terrorist activity. In countries that are not undergoing internal violent conflict, socio-economic drivers correlate more prominently with terrorist attacks. GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism 67
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MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMP
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 ABOUT
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The report highlights the striking
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Terrorism in Western Countries 3 Th
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In addition to this baseline defini
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RESULTS The 2015 Global Terrorism I
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40 Paraguay 4.094 50 Ethiopia 3.544
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DATE COUNTRY CITY FATALITIES / INJU
Page 17 and 18: TABLE 1 NUMBER OF YEARS A COUNTRY H
Page 19 and 20: INCREASING SPREAD OF TERRORISM One
Page 21 and 22: The country with the second largest
Page 23 and 24: AFGHANISTAN INCIDENTS 1,591 PROPERT
Page 25 and 26: PAKISTAN INCIDENTS 1,821 PROPERTY D
Page 27 and 28: INDIA INCIDENTS 763 DEAD 416 PROPER
Page 29 and 30: SOMALIA INCIDENTS DEAD 469 801 PROP
Page 31 and 32: THAILAND INCIDENTS DEAD 156 366 654
Page 33 and 34: FIGURE 8 CITIES WITH HIGHEST HOMICI
Page 35 and 36: TRENDS Over the last 15 years, more
Page 37 and 38: FIGURE 10 NUMBER OF ATTACKS AND DEA
Page 39 and 40: 2014, 50 Sunni Muslim civilians wer
Page 41 and 42: TERRORISM & ONGOING CONFLICT The fi
Page 43 and 44: THE FIVE MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROU
Page 45 and 46: convoy with members of the British
Page 47 and 48: FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ & SYRIA Th
Page 49 and 50: FIGURE 20 FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ
Page 51 and 52: TERRORISM IN WESTERN COUNTRIES Over
Page 53 and 54: TABLE 3 DEATHS FROM TERRORISM IN 20
Page 55 and 56: FIGURE 24 PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN W
Page 57 and 58: The largest category of lone wolf a
Page 59 and 60: FIGURE 28 DEATHS BY LONE WOLF TERRO
Page 61 and 62: TERRORISM & THE REFUGEE CRISIS The
Page 63 and 64: ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM The glo
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 34 THE COSTS OF TERRORISM, U
Page 67: FIGURE 35 COSTS OF TERRORISM COMPAR
Page 71 and 72: In OECD countries, socio-economic f
Page 73 and 74: THE LINK BETWEEN ONGOING CONFLICT &
Page 75 and 76: WHY INDIVIDUALS BECOME FOREIGN FIGH
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 42 SYSTEMS MAP OF GTI CORREL
Page 79 and 80: colonel in the intelligence service
Page 81 and 82: as Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, Sound
Page 83 and 84: statistics. As they were no longer
Page 85 and 86: MIGRATION, VIOLENT EXTREMISM AND TE
Page 87 and 88: community engagement and resilience
Page 89 and 90: The internet is just one of the way
Page 91 and 92: ANNEXES GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015
Page 93 and 94: GTI RANK COUNTRY 2015 GTI SCORE (OU
Page 95 and 96: ANNEX B 50 WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS
Page 97 and 98: ANNEX C GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX METH
Page 99 and 100: COMPARING THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATA
Page 101 and 102: ANNEX E ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM
Page 103 and 104: CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
Page 105 and 106: CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
Page 107 and 108: END NOTES 1. Global Terrorism Datab
Page 109 and 110: 49. Sources for the foreign fighter
Page 111: NOV 2015 / IEP REPORT 36 ISBN 978-0
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MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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