MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

Such results are perhaps not surprising considering that most
foreign fighter recruits are between the ages of 15 to 35. 39
High levels of idle youth who are not in employment, education
or training correlates with the GTI at r= 0.48. In the OECD
negative perceptions of immigration correlated at r=0.71 with
the GTI.
Lack of inclusion and engagement can fuel feelings of isolation
and alienation. This then can lead to anger and finally to seeking
revenge. Many alienated individuals seek an identity group
where they feel welcomed and belong. In other cases, the desire
for status is more important as individuals seek to assert their
skills and personality to a goal. Finally, in societies where
engagement and satisfaction of youth is low, thrill seeking can
emerge as a driver.
A common policy recommendation of CVE approaches is the
need to propose counter-narratives to the messaging of jihadi
and right-wing extremist groups. This can be in the form of
religious refutation and reframing common myths around the
attractions of violent extremism. 40
The USIP study suggested that, in particular, thrill seekers were
most likely to defect once the harsh realities of conflict failed to
live up to their expectations. The International Centre for the
Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR) recently
surveyed 58 defectors from ISIL and found that infighting and
brutality against other Muslims, especially Sunni, was a major
cause for defection. Quality of life is also a significant factor
along with the realisation that corruption and un-Islamic
behaviour was prominent among the ISIL ranks. Positive steps
towards the goals of CVE include effectively communicating
such experiences to youth at risk while focusing on social
cohesion, inclusion and providing adequate opportunities.
The USIP study offers important insights into the motivations of
individuals joining al-Qa’ida as a foreign fighter. However,
reasons people may join other organisations can vary depending
on the situation and the circumstances. Economic incentives are
known to play an important part for some in the decision to
pursue violent extremism. 41 In other cases, martyrdom and social
encouragement can play a larger role. Martyrdom may bring
social kudos and benefits to a perpetrator’s family. 42 In other
examples, children and youth are abducted and forced into
service by terrorist organisations. 42 Such motivations highlight
the non-existence of a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to combatting
terrorism. 43 It is important that further research is funded to
continue to understand the multidimensional motivations and
mitigate risks.
COUNTERTERRORISM
& COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Traditional counterterrorism approaches target terrorist
activity directly through increased security measures. However,
as the understanding about the drivers of terrorism improves,
discussion has shifted to prevention strategies so as to reduce
the pool of individuals that may choose to participate in
terrorist activities. Recently the term countering violent
extremism has entered public debate for just this reason.
CVE aims to understand the interplay of the social, economic,
political and ideological push and pull factors to inform
prevention programs.
This report highlights that the factors that correlate with
terrorism differ from country to country. In non-OECD
countries, terrorism occurs on a larger scale and in the context
of ongoing armed conflict and extensive political terror. In
OECD countries, terrorism is correlated to lower levels of social
cohesion and lack of opportunity. In recognition of this
diversity, CVE programs employ different strategies to tailor to
local contexts. In the case of terrorism occurring in the midst
of extensive political terror and ongoing conflict, CVE will
often overlap with general peacekeeping and peacebuilding
operations within the region. 45 In the developed world, CVE
programs can overlap with holistic policing strategies and
broader social and economic policy on youth employment and
training as well as social cohesion.
Figure 42 depicts a systems diagram that combines the
correlates of terrorism with a summary of the CVE literature.
Traditional counterterrorism is shown to be intrinsically linked
to violent extremist activity. However, at the centre of the system
is the individual or group who have a grievance within society
but have not yet aligned with violent extremism. CVE programs
target factors, individuals and groups before violent extremism
is pursued. These can include whole-of-community approaches
such as educating students at schools to the dangers of violent
extremism. CVE can also be directed at individuals and groups
identified as being at risk of being drawn to violent extremism
and offering alternatives paths. 46
Counterterrorism and CVE are both needed to tackle violent
extremism. Figure 42 depicts the factors that lead individual and
groups towards or away from terrorism. Counterterrorism
approaches need to be sensitive to the factors driving terrorism
and avoid further alienating individuals at risk. 47
The systems map in figure 42 was derived through correlations
which show how different factors relate to each other. This
does not mean that IEP has identified all the causes of
terrorism: the systems map does not explain when specific
causal factors are active. However, it does reflect statistically
significant factors which aid in explaining potential drivers of
terrorism and violent extremism.
GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism
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