MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

The report highlights the striking prevalence of lone wolf
attacks in the West. Lone wolf attacks account for 70 per cent
of all terrorist deaths in the West since 2006. Additionally,
Islamic fundamentalism was not the primary driver of lone
wolf attacks, with 80 per cent of deaths in the West from lone
wolf attacks being attributed to a mixture of right wing
extremists, nationalists, anti-government elements, other
types of political extremism and supremacism.
The flow of foreign fighters into Iraq and Syria continued in
2014 and 2015. The current estimates are that since 2011
between 25,000 and 30,000 fighters, from 100 different
countries, have arrived in Iraq and Syria. The flow of foreign
fighters is still high with estimates suggesting that over 7,000
new recruits arrived in the first half of 2015. This highlights
that the attraction of these jihadist groups is still strong.
Europe comprises 21 per cent of all foreign fighters, while 50
per cent are from neighbouring Middle-East and North Africa
(MENA) countries.
State based conflicts coupled with high levels of terrorism,
have been the major cause of the massive flow of refugees and
displaced people. Ten of the 11 countries with more than 500
deaths from terrorism also had the highest levels of refugees
and Internally Displaced People (IDP) migration in the world.
The Syrian conflict alone has resulted in four million people
migrating beyond its borders with another seven million
people internally displaced.
Mirroring the broader increase in terrorism, the economic
costs of terrorist activity have also dramatically increased. IEP
conservatively estimates the economic cost of terrorism
reached its highest ever level in 2014 at US$52.9 billion. This
is a 61 per cent increase from the previous year and a ten-fold
increase since 2000.
Statistical analysis has identified two factors which are very
closely associated with terrorist activity: political violence
committed by the state and the existence of a broader armed
conflict. The research finds that 92 per cent of all terrorist
attacks over the past 25 years occurred in countries where
state sponsored political violence was widespread, while 88
per cent of attacks occurred in countries that were involved
in violent conflicts. The link between these two factors and
terrorism is so strong that less than 0.6 per cent of all terrorist
attacks have occurred in countries without any ongoing
conflict and any form of political terror.
When analysing the correlates of terrorism between
wealthier and poorer countries, different factors were found
to be statistically significant. In the richer OECD countries,
socio-economic factors such as youth unemployment,
confidence in the press, belief in democracy, drug crime and
attitudes towards immigration are the most statistically
significant factors correlating with terrorism. This highlights
many of the underlying drivers of radicalisation and lone
wolf terrorism.
In non-OECD countries, factors such as a history of armed
conflict, ongoing conflict within the country, corruption and
a weak business environment are more strongly correlated,
reflecting the larger group-based dynamics seen in
many countries.
Other correlates which are common to both groups include
lower respect for human rights, the existence of policies
targeting religious freedoms, group grievances, political
instability and lower respect for the UN or the EU.
The report also includes a section featuring expert
commentary on various aspects of terrorism. The essay by
Christina Liang Schori of GCSP details the financing of ISIL,
highlighting that the organisation is effectively acting as a
state, including a taxation system, estimated to be US$11
million a month, and oil sales which are estimated to exceed
½ billion US dollars per annum. Glazzard and Pantucci from
RUSI, as well as Anne Aly from Curtin University comment on
various approaches to defining terrorism and the difficulties
associated with measuring it. Koser and Cunningham from
GCERF explore the linkages between migration, violent
extremism and terrorism while the essay from Georgia
Holmer at USIP focuses on a variety of government
approaches to returning fighters.
Although the findings presented in this report paint a
disturbing picture, it is important to put it in context with
other forms of violence. At least 437,000 people are
murdered each year, which is over 13 times more than the
number of victims of terrorism.
The majority of deaths from terrorism in 2014 occurred in
three countries, Syria, Iraq and Nigeria. Without an
international agreement on the future of the Assad regime it
will be very difficult to effectively combat ISIL. Any solution to
ISIL must be inclusive of the Sunni population and have
regional support, otherwise the sectarian violence may
continue for decades. Nigeria’s terrorism is more diverse,
with two major groups, Boko Haram and Fulani militants,
having different aims and drivers. The new president,
Muhammadu Buhari, a retired Nigerian Army major general,
has made the reduction of corruption and the defeat of Boko
Haram as his main priorities. The new government will
provide a change in the country’s strategic approach to these
groups. Any successful approach will need to deal effectively
with the terrorist groups while also addressing the underlying
drivers of conflict in the country.
The findings of this report emphasise the increasing
intensity and spread of terrorist activity globally and point to
the key underlying factors that give rise to terrorism.
Understanding the factors that are associated with higher
levels of terrorism is vital to informing countering violent
extremism (CVE) policy. Without solutions to the underlying
grievances or causes that lead to extremism, tackling
terrorism will be more difficult.
GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015
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