MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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THE LINK BETWEEN POLITICAL TERROR & TERRORISM Political Terror is defined as state sanctioned or state perpetrated violence against its citizens. 29 Examples of political terror include political imprisonment, state-sanctioned extrajudicial killings, torture and mass violence against civilians. To analyse the link between the levels of political terror and terrorism carried out by non-state actors, the GTI was correlated to the Political Terror Scale, a one-to-five scale with one reflecting no political imprisonment and five reflecting unrestrained political terror which is waged against the whole of the population. 30 Terrorism correlates significantly with the Political Terror Scale with r= 0.69. Extrajudicial killings by government officials without due process of law, measured by the Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project hold a significant correlation of r=-0.65 with the GTI. This also includes murders by private groups that have been instigated by the government. IEP has analysed the location of all terrorist attacks included in START’s Global Terrorism Database in which at least one person was killed between 1989 and 2014. Figure 38 highlights that 92 per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries where the Political Terror Scale was very high. Fifteen of the countries with the highest levels of terrorism in 2014 also had very poor Political Terror Scale scores in 2002. PERCENTAGE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS FIGURE 38 POLITICAL TERROR AND TERRORISM, 1989–2014 Around 92 per cent of all terrorist attacks between 1989 and 2014 occurred in countries where violent political terror was widespread. 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Source: START GTD, Political Terror Scale Whole of population abuse Widespread rights abuses Extensive political imprisonment Limited political imprisonment No political imprisonment 92 per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries where the Political Terror Scale was very high. GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism 70
THE LINK BETWEEN ONGOING CONFLICT & TERRORISM Terrorist activity historically occurs within nations that are also experiencing broader internal armed conflict. IEP has compared the location of all terrorist attacks to all battle-related deaths resulting from conflicts involving at least one state actor 31 and has found that 55 per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries in the midst of an internal armed conflict. 32 Additionally another 33 per cent occurred in countries that were either experiencing or involved in an internationalised conflict. Figure 39 highlights the percentage of terrorist attacks that occur in the context of different types of conflict. Between 1989 and the end of 2014 less than 0.6 per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries without any ongoing conflict and with the lowest levels of political terror. Figure 40 highlights the close link between levels of terrorism and levels of conflict. This is measured by comparing the GTI to the Global Peace Index (GPI) sub-domain ‘Ongoing Conflict’ which measures the number, intensity and duration of a country’s involvement in either internal or external conflicts. FIGURE 39 PERCENTAGE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS THAT OCCURRED IN COUNTRIES WITH ONGOING CONFLICT, BY TYPE, 1989–2014 Eighty-eight per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries that were experiencing or involved in violent conflicts. Eleven per cent of terrorist attacks occurred in countries that at the time were not involved in conflict. Less than 0.6 per cent of all terrorist attacks occurred in countries without any ongoing conflict and any form of political terror. PERCENTAGE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS 100% 75% 50% 25% 11% of terrorist attacks occurred outside of conflict 5% of these in countries with no political terror 0.55% in countries with no conflict and no political terror 16% Whole of population abuse 49% Widespread rights abuses 5% No political imprisonment 10% Limited political imprisonment 20% Extensive political imprisonment 0% Internal Internationalised internal Not in conflict Interstate POLITICAL TERROR SCALE Source: START GTD, UCDP GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015 | Correlates and Drivers of Terrorism 71
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MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMP
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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 ABOUT
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The report highlights the striking
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Terrorism in Western Countries 3 Th
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In addition to this baseline defini
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RESULTS The 2015 Global Terrorism I
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40 Paraguay 4.094 50 Ethiopia 3.544
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DATE COUNTRY CITY FATALITIES / INJU
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TABLE 1 NUMBER OF YEARS A COUNTRY H
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INCREASING SPREAD OF TERRORISM One
Page 21 and 22: The country with the second largest
Page 23 and 24: AFGHANISTAN INCIDENTS 1,591 PROPERT
Page 25 and 26: PAKISTAN INCIDENTS 1,821 PROPERTY D
Page 27 and 28: INDIA INCIDENTS 763 DEAD 416 PROPER
Page 29 and 30: SOMALIA INCIDENTS DEAD 469 801 PROP
Page 31 and 32: THAILAND INCIDENTS DEAD 156 366 654
Page 33 and 34: FIGURE 8 CITIES WITH HIGHEST HOMICI
Page 35 and 36: TRENDS Over the last 15 years, more
Page 37 and 38: FIGURE 10 NUMBER OF ATTACKS AND DEA
Page 39 and 40: 2014, 50 Sunni Muslim civilians wer
Page 41 and 42: TERRORISM & ONGOING CONFLICT The fi
Page 43 and 44: THE FIVE MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROU
Page 45 and 46: convoy with members of the British
Page 47 and 48: FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ & SYRIA Th
Page 49 and 50: FIGURE 20 FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ
Page 51 and 52: TERRORISM IN WESTERN COUNTRIES Over
Page 53 and 54: TABLE 3 DEATHS FROM TERRORISM IN 20
Page 55 and 56: FIGURE 24 PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN W
Page 57 and 58: The largest category of lone wolf a
Page 59 and 60: FIGURE 28 DEATHS BY LONE WOLF TERRO
Page 61 and 62: TERRORISM & THE REFUGEE CRISIS The
Page 63 and 64: ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM The glo
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 34 THE COSTS OF TERRORISM, U
Page 67 and 68: FIGURE 35 COSTS OF TERRORISM COMPAR
Page 69 and 70: CORRELATES & DRIVERS OF TERRORISM I
Page 71: In OECD countries, socio-economic f
Page 75 and 76: WHY INDIVIDUALS BECOME FOREIGN FIGH
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 42 SYSTEMS MAP OF GTI CORREL
Page 79 and 80: colonel in the intelligence service
Page 81 and 82: as Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, Sound
Page 83 and 84: statistics. As they were no longer
Page 85 and 86: MIGRATION, VIOLENT EXTREMISM AND TE
Page 87 and 88: community engagement and resilience
Page 89 and 90: The internet is just one of the way
Page 91 and 92: ANNEXES GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX 2015
Page 93 and 94: GTI RANK COUNTRY 2015 GTI SCORE (OU
Page 95 and 96: ANNEX B 50 WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS
Page 97 and 98: ANNEX C GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX METH
Page 99 and 100: COMPARING THE GLOBAL TERRORISM DATA
Page 101 and 102: ANNEX E ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM
Page 103 and 104: CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
Page 105 and 106: CATEGORY SOURCE INDICATOR GLOBAL OE
Page 107 and 108: END NOTES 1. Global Terrorism Datab
Page 109 and 110: 49. Sources for the foreign fighter
Page 111: NOV 2015 / IEP REPORT 36 ISBN 978-0
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MEASURING AND UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM

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