Distance Education in Transition - Master of Distance Education ...

Online Learning: Visions, Hopes, Expectations
A few years before Toffler published his book the futurologists Herbert Kahn and
Anthony J. Wiener (1967, 1971) caused a sensation with their book “The year two
thousand: a framework for speculation on the next 33 years”. They described how
learning material could be accessed in the home, at work and in school with the help of
computer networks. We can see that great hopes for innovations in teaching and
learning were linked from the start to the use of computers and computer networks.
Public consciousness of the possibility of learning with computer networks is of course
shaped by society and is influenced in individual countries by different mentalities. This
can be seen from articles in the press. In Germany we can still read opinions in articles
on the subject which tend to run from the sceptical to the critical, but in the USA people
are more confident and optimistic. There is convincing proof of the openness of
Americans towards the new media: Since 1927, the readers of TIME magazine have
been voting annually for a "Man of the Year" to indicate his particular importance for
the development of society. In 1982 the vote was not won by a man or a woman but,
characteristically, by the computer, which was then, as usual, shown on the magazine's
cover. This year, the "man" of the year was the computer. Two thirds of readers polled
were already of the opinion that computers would improve education (Kleinschroth,
1996, p. 13). The weight and significance of this technological achievement could not
be stressed more.
Empirical Analyses
The considerations referred to so far have been in part selective and in part general.
There is no way in which a general trend can be concluded from them. And in no way
can they be generalised. Their informative value is therefore limited. If we want to
discover more valid information on this subject we will have to examine systematically
everything which has been thought, imagined and held for possible in this area. Klaus
Beck (1998), a communications sociologist, has carried out this task. He examined forty
prognoses on "teaching and learning in the information society" with the help of
empirical contents analyses. He arrived at interesting and differentiated results with
relatively high evidential value. It is worthwhile looking into this, because in this way
we can find important criteria for the future discussion of the new working field.
An evaluation of the examined prophecies shows us the following:
(1) The future role played by computer networks has occupied a great number of
authors in the past decades, including many scholars. This topic was current throughout
the period. If we take their statements together we obtain wide-ranging and detailed
insights into the developments which were prophesied.
(2) The network is in principle not regarded as a medium that would simply be added to
conventional media but as a technical configuration which attracts attention because of
its particular effects on teaching and learning and because it inspires pedagogical
fantasies. Some authors are angered by it, others are enthusiastic. In fact: what these
authors forecast should impress every educationalist and instructional designer who
enjoys reforms. The variety of the unorthodox possibilities for applications shown in
these prognoses and of their innovative effects on learning is overwhelming.
(3) It is claimed that computer networks will have a "wide-ranging impact" on the
educational system. If we observe in particular the field of teaching and learning,
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