The Litvinenko Inquiry

Part 3 | Chapters 1 to 5 | Alexander Litvinenko
scientific tables giving expected survival periods following exposure to radiation.
Dr Harrison explained this analysis in detail in both his written and oral evidence. 206
3.180 The conclusion that Dr Harrison drew from this analysis was clear. He stated:
“Death is the inevitable outcome of the radiation doses estimated to have been
received by Mr Litvinenko’s red bone marrow, kidneys and liver. Bone marrow
failure is likely to be an important contributory cause of death occurring within a
few weeks of intake, as a component of multiple organ failure.” 207
3.181 The experts’ joint statement comments, at paragraph 25: 208
“It can be stated with certainty that Mr Litvinenko died as a consequence of an
intake of polonium 210.”
The number and timing of the doses of polonium 210 ingested
by Mr Litvinenko
3.182 Scientific analysis of samples of Mr Litvinenko’s hair was consistent with there having
been more than one intake of polonium 210. The hair analysis suggested that there
had been two intakes, the earlier being about a hundred times smaller than the later. 209
3.183 The scientific evidence did not produce a definitive timing for the second and larger
intake of polonium. That said, I heard that Mr Litvinenko’s medical records, and in
particular the rise in levels of circulating neutrophils (white blood cells) recorded on
3 November and 5 November, were consistent with the fatal intake having taken place
on 1 November. 210 As we shall see, there is independent evidence which strongly
indicates that that is when the second intake occurred.
3.184 As to the timing of the earlier intake, the scientific evidence may be summarised as
follows:
a. It was common ground that it was not possible to determine the precise date upon
which the earlier intake had occurred. As the experts put it in their joint report:
“[the] evidence does not enable precise interpretation in terms of relative
times of intake because of uncertainties over the rate of hair growth and the
possible effect of radiation exposure on hair growth.”
b. Accordingly, the scientists estimated a period during which the earlier intake had
taken place, assuming that the later intake had occurred on 1 November
c. Dr Harrrison, Dr Gent and A1 concluded that the earlier intake had probably taken
place between 18 October and 23 October 211
d. Dr Black, who conducted his analysis on a different basis, estimated that the
earlier intake had taken place between 14 and 18 October 212
206
INQ007633; Harrison 19/32-67
207
INQ007633 (page 7)
208
INQ016745 (page 9)
209
INQ016745 (page 10)
210
INQ007633 (page 7)
211
INQ016745 (page 10)
212
INQ014291 (page 8)
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