ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

Recommendations

Info

Box 3-1: Changing Demographic Trends and Global Growth Demographics play a large role in the long-run trend of economic growth by affecting labor supply, capital formation, and productivity (IMF 2004). A major part of any country’s real GDP growth is simply its population growth, as growing populations provide more workers as well as rising demand for products, new homes, and services. Beyond that, increases in the relative size of the working-age population (people aged 15 to 64) can also have a major impact on output per capita by directly changing the labor supply. Demographic changes also indirectly affect the amount of resources per capita through changes in household savings behavior across their life cycles. Lower dependency ratios (the ratio of people younger than 15 or older than 64 to the working-age population) can raise savings, which helps finance more investments and increases output. Finally, demographics indirectly affect productivity growth through changes in the quality of human capital formation and innovation. Nevertheless, the reverse is also true. Demographic changes can act as a drag on economic growth (Kohshaka 2013). Global demographic trends are at a turning point. Population growth is slowing and, after increasing for the previous five decades, the proportion of the population that is working-age peaked at 66 percent in 2012. This proportion is projected to decline steadily for the next century. This slower growth in the working-age population—or outright contraction—will continue to be a drain on global growth for the foreseeable future. Stark differences at the country level lie beneath this global trend. As seen in Figure 3-i, working-age populations are now shrinking in Europe and in East Asia broadly, not just as a share of the population, but in raw numbers. In North and Latin America, working-age populations are projected to flatten out over time, while Southern Asia and Africa will continue to see an increase. Collectively, these regional demographic trends signal additional risks to future global economic growth. Over the next 30 years, half of the world’s population will live in Africa and Southern Asia; global population growth will be driven by their high fertility and relatively young populations. As a result, the bulk of new workers in the global economy will be added in economies that have lower levels of education, technology, and capital, implying those workers will not be as productive, if current circumstances continue. By 2035, the number of people joining the working-age population from Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia will exceed that from the rest of the world combined. This means both South Asia and Africa will be increasingly important to global growth. It will be necessary to build The Global Macroeconomic Situation | 125
Figure 3-i Actual and Forecasted Working-Age Population by Region, 1950–2070 Millions of People Aged 15-64 2,100 1,800 Africa 1,500 Southern Asia 1,200 900 600 Europe Eastern Asia Latin America 300 North America 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects. institutions and economies that can lead global growth in these places (IMF 2015c). The other half of the world’s population will experience slowdowns in population growth with rising shares of the elderly. Substantial aging is projected in Europe and East Asia (see Figure 3-ii). By 2050, the Figure 3-ii Actual and Forecasted Dependency Ratios by Region, 1950–2070 Number of Dependents per 100 People Aged 15-64 100 80 Latin America Africa Southern Asia 60 World 40 North America Europe Eastern Asia 20 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 Note: A dependent is less than 15 or more than 64 years of age. Source: United Nations World Population Prospects. 126 | Chapter 3
Page 1 and 2:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
Page 4:
C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
Page 8 and 9:
economic report of the president To
Page 10 and 11:
when a hardworking American loses h
Page 12:
the annual report of the council of
Page 16 and 17:
C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1 INCLUSIVE
Page 18 and 19:
CHAPTER 5 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
Page 20 and 21:
APPENDIXES A. Report to the Preside
Page 22 and 23:
3.4. Percent Gap Between Actual and
Page 24 and 25:
6.6. Relationship between Output Gr
Page 26 and 27:
C H A P T E R 1 INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN
Page 28 and 29:
To promote inclusive growth, both c
Page 30 and 31:
Percent 20 15 Figure 1-1 Share of I
Page 32 and 33:
Table 1-1 Increase in Income Share
Page 34 and 35:
Figure 1-3 Distribution of Househol
Page 36 and 37:
narrows the pool of human capital t
Page 38 and 39:
over the past several decades has b
Page 40 and 41:
Figure 1-6a The "Great Gatsby Curve
Page 42 and 43:
Figure 1-7 Change in Employment by
Page 44 and 45:
and sellers—consumer and producer
Page 46 and 47:
Percent 15 10 Figure 1-9 Corporate
Page 48 and 49:
Percent 30 Figure 1-11 Share of Wor
Page 50 and 51:
Figure 1-12 Real Construction Costs
Page 52 and 53:
promoting equality of opportunity;
Page 54 and 55:
the division of rents, they can red
Page 56 and 57:
C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
Page 58 and 59:
cold weather.1 The economy rebounde
Page 60 and 61:
Box 2-1: Impact of Oil Price Declin
Page 62 and 63:
Roughly speaking, the decline in th
Page 64 and 65:
Percent of GDP 10 Figure 2-3 Federa
Page 66 and 67:
Figure 2-5 Government Purchases as
Page 68 and 69:
13 percent of GDP. Until 1990, Stat
Page 70 and 71:
of new purchases.2 The increase in
Page 72 and 73:
Figure 2-8 Actual and Consensus For
Page 74 and 75:
Figure 2-10 Rates of Part-Time Work
Page 76 and 77:
less than a tenth of the overall de
Page 78 and 79:
Business fixed investment grew 3.1
Page 80 and 81: Percent 10 Figure 2-14 Personal Sav
Page 82 and 83: BEA revises the official statistics
Page 84 and 85: Index* 100 Figure 2-16 Real Income
Page 86 and 87: Box 2-5: Are Official Estimates of
Page 88 and 89: of consumer surplus, which should,
Page 90 and 91: Figure 2-19 National House Price In
Page 92 and 93: Box 2-6: Constraints on Housing Sup
Page 94 and 95: and also was estimated in recent re
Page 96 and 97: market. Nevertheless, the construct
Page 98 and 99: Figure 2-23 Net Investment as a Sha
Page 100 and 101: Percent 80 Figure 2-25 Total Payout
Page 102 and 103: Figure 2-28 Foreign Real GDP and U.
Page 104 and 105: Figure 2-30 Sources of Productivity
Page 106 and 107: Figure 2-32 Nominal Wage Growth Ove
Page 108 and 109: Figure 2-35 Long-Term Inflation Exp
Page 110 and 111: Percent 18 Figure 2-36 Nominal 10-Y
Page 112 and 113: Table 2-1 Selected Interest Rates,
Page 114 and 115: are close to those projected by the
Page 116 and 117: International Economics (Petri and
Page 118 and 119: History Forecast 1953:Q2 to 2015:Q3
Page 120 and 121: inflation up to 2007 and then expec
Page 122: Upside and Downside Forecast Risks.
Page 125 and 126: earlier forecasts. Figure 3-1 shows
Page 127 and 128: Real GDP/WAP Growth 2011-2014 Figur
Page 129: economists would expect capital dee
Page 133 and 134: affected the demographic trajectory
Page 135 and 136: over the first three quarters of 20
Page 137 and 138: Percentage Points 35 30 Figure 3-7
Page 139 and 140: the President for a discussion of t
Page 141 and 142: Box 3-2: Market Volatility in the S
Page 143 and 144: potential for rapid spillovers betw
Page 145 and 146: absorb unexpectedly high losses. In
Page 147 and 148: Box 3-3: Commodity Prices and Infla
Page 149 and 150: In November 2015, the IMF voted to
Page 151 and 152: Billions of U.S. Dollars 250 200 15
Page 153 and 154: U.S. exports are 12.5 percent of th
Page 155 and 156: Box 3-4: The Importance of the Tran
Page 157 and 158: The challenging environment for U.S
Page 159 and 160: child’s environment. Despite the
Page 161 and 162: and Rossin-Slater 2015).5 These adv
Page 163 and 164: Figure 4-2 Official Poverty Rate fo
Page 165 and 166: Figure 4-3 Likelihood of Scoring Ve
Page 167 and 168: Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Page 169 and 170: Figure 4-7 Achievement Gap is Large
Page 171 and 172: Hours per Week 24 22 20 Figure 4-9
Page 173 and 174: Percent 65 Figure 4-11 Preschool En
Page 175 and 176: Box 4-1: Gender Differences in Earl
Page 177 and 178: Card and Rothstein 2007; Dickerson
Page 179 and 180: depend on how parents choose to inv
Page 181 and 182:
y many factors, which makes it diff
Page 183 and 184:
Box 4-3: Federal Early Childhood Pr
Page 185 and 186:
program served over 45 million Amer
Page 187 and 188:
Reauthorization Act of 2015, signed
Page 189 and 190:
document that desegregation of hosp
Page 191 and 192:
to alleviate hunger by supplementin
Page 193 and 194:
adulthood (Hoynes, Schanzenbach, an
Page 195 and 196:
of preschoolers support their child
Page 197 and 198:
program and up to 15 years after co
Page 199 and 200:
a longer period than is true of mos
Page 201 and 202:
to be higher today than in the past
Page 203 and 204:
Figure 4-18 Most Early Childhood Pr
Page 205 and 206:
the preschool programs in Georgia a
Page 207 and 208:
test scores by 6 to 9 percent of a
Page 209 and 210:
Figure 4-20 Increase in Probability
Page 211 and 212:
increased earnings by 31 percent (F
Page 213 and 214:
Figure 5-1 Labor Productivity Growt
Page 215 and 216:
Competition and Dynamism Play a Cri
Page 217 and 218:
adopts pre-existing technology or k
Page 219 and 220:
Figure 5-2 Quantity and Volume of V
Page 221 and 222:
Box 5-2: Occupational Licensing One
Page 223 and 224:
in consumer welfare as they erode t
Page 225 and 226:
Finally, some workers may acquire s
Page 227 and 228:
Box 5-3: Major Research Initiatives
Page 229 and 230:
Figure 5-5 Federal and Nonfederal R
Page 231 and 232:
Figure 5-7 Federal Research and Dev
Page 233 and 234:
Figure 5-10 Percent of Patent Appli
Page 235 and 236:
percent of all cases in 2009 to ove
Page 237 and 238:
(Bloom, Sadun, and Van Reenen 2012)
Page 239 and 240:
Figure 5-12 Estimated Annual Shipme
Page 241 and 242:
was relatively flat through the 200
Page 243 and 244:
In contrast, recent papers by Autor
Page 245 and 246:
services, such as 4G LTE. At the sa
Page 247 and 248:
Box 5-5: The On-Demand Economy “O
Page 249 and 250:
vision of services that may not hav
Page 251 and 252:
Figure 5-17 Household Income and Ho
Page 253 and 254:
about half since ConnectED was laun
Page 256 and 257:
C H A P T E R 6 THE ECONOMIC BENEFI
Page 258 and 259:
enefits to a wide set of consumers
Page 260 and 261:
Figure 6-1 Composition of Public Sp
Page 262 and 263:
Age, Years 29 27 Figure 6-3 Average
Page 264 and 265:
Type CAN FRA DEU ITA JPN GBR USA 20
Page 266 and 267:
Box 6-1: Clean Energy and Transport
Page 268 and 269:
Industry Government Investment Dire
Page 270 and 271:
infrastructure investment is crucia
Page 272 and 273:
Box 6-2: Elasticity of Output to Pu
Page 274 and 275:
and output ignore potential inter-t
Page 276 and 277:
Thus, ideas are exchanged, workers
Page 278 and 279:
kilometers of road) in 1983 resulte
Page 280 and 281:
Prospects for Increased Infrastruct
Page 282 and 283:
Figure 6-6 Relationship between Out
Page 284 and 285:
there is a clear demand for an infr
Page 286 and 287:
user fees or shadow tolls.11 Throug
Page 288 and 289:
to transportation facilities caused
Page 290 and 291:
Tax-Exempt Bonds Transportation inf
Page 292 and 293:
Recent Legislation In December 2015
Page 294 and 295:
enefit freight movements. The Act a
Page 296 and 297:
C H A P T E R 7 THE 70 TH ANNIVERSA
Page 298 and 299:
and composition of the labor force,
Page 300 and 301:
it, “[t]he CEA and its chairman h
Page 302 and 303:
jected reductions in the deficit. I
Page 304 and 305:
example, the Environmental Protecti
Page 306 and 307:
Keyserling and the Council particip
Page 308 and 309:
Countercyclical Policy in Other Adm
Page 310 and 311:
In designing the Recovery Act, one
Page 312 and 313:
incorporating risk and discounting
Page 314 and 315:
and Freddie had lots of friends in
Page 316 and 317:
(USEC). USEC was responsible for pr
Page 318 and 319:
can be reported to him as the perce
Page 320 and 321:
By contrast, Keyserling had activel
Page 322 and 323:
goals of the government in their ar
Page 324 and 325:
Gather, Analyze, and Interpret Info
Page 326 and 327:
the unemployment insurance system w
Page 328 and 329:
an informational basis for appropri
Page 330 and 331:
had experience working in governmen
Page 332 and 333:
emained. I joined forces with Budge
Page 334:
Of course, relying on short-term ac
Page 337 and 338:
Carson, Ann. 2015. “Prisoners in
Page 339 and 340:
Kleiner, Morris M. and Alan B. Krue
Page 341 and 342:
Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Page 343 and 344:
Kocin, Paul J. and Louis Uccellini.
Page 345 and 346:
Fajgelbaum, Pablo and Amit Khandelw
Page 347 and 348:
World Bank. 2016. “Global Economi
Page 349 and 350:
Belfield, Clive R., Milagros Nores,
Page 351 and 352:
Campbell, Jennifer A., Rebekah J. W
Page 353 and 354:
Council of Economic Advisers. 2014.
Page 355 and 356:
Eissa, Nada and Jeffrey B. Liebman.
Page 357 and 358:
Hastings, Justine S. and Ebonya Was
Page 359 and 360:
Kalil, Ariel, Rebecca Ryan, and Mic
Page 361 and 362:
Maxfield, Michelle. 2013. “The Ef
Page 363 and 364:
Olds, David, John Eckenrode, Charle
Page 365 and 366:
Solon, Gary. 1992. “Intergenerati
Page 367 and 368:
Wherry, Laura R., Sarah Miller, Rob
Page 369 and 370:
Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman,
Page 371 and 372:
Graham, Stuart JH, Cheryl Grim, Tar
Page 373 and 374:
Melitz, Marc J. 2003. “The Impact
Page 375 and 376:
______. 2015. “Patent Assertions:
Page 377 and 378:
Congressional Budget Office. 2009.
Page 379 and 380:
Peshkin, David G., Todd E. Hoerner,
Page 381 and 382:
______. 2001. Designing U.S. Econom
Page 383 and 384:
Krueger, Alan B. 2000. “Honest Br
Page 385 and 386:
Weidenbaum, Murray L. 1983. “An E
Page 388 and 389:
letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 390:
Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 393 and 394:
The Members of the Council Sandra E
Page 395 and 396:
In May, the Council issued a report
Page 397 and 398:
Nirupama S. Rao . . . . . . . . . .
Page 399 and 400:
Jessica Schumer resigned from her p
Page 402 and 403:
C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES
Page 404 and 405:
General Notes Detail in these table
Page 406 and 407:
Table B-1. Percent changes in real
Page 408 and 409:
Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
Page 410 and 411:
Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro
Page 412 and 413:
Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co
Page 414 and 415:
Table B-8. New private housing unit
Page 416 and 417:
Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri
Page 418 and 419:
Table B-11. Civilian labor force, 1
Page 420 and 421:
Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym
Page 422 and 423:
Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
Page 424 and 425:
Year or quarter Table B-16. Product
Page 426 and 427:
Table B-18. Federal receipts, outla
Page 428 and 429:
Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
Page 430 and 431:
Table B-22. State and local governm
Page 432 and 433:
End of month Table B-24. Estimated
Page 434 and 435:
Table B-25. Bond yields and interes
show all

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?