ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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Deming, David. 2009. “Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1 (3): 111-134. Dickerson, Niki T. 2007. “Black Employment, Segregation, and the Social Organization of Metropolitan Labor Markets.” Economic Geography 83 (3): 283-307. Dobbie, Will and Roland G. Fryer, Jr. 2011. “Are High-Quality Schools Enough to Increase Achievement Among the Poor? Evidence from the Harlem Children’s Zone.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3 (3): 158-187. Dodge, Kenneth A, Benjamin Goodman, Robert A. Murphy, Karen O’Donnell, and Jeannine Sato. 2013. “Randomized Controlled Trial of Universal Postnatal Nurse Home Visiting: Impact on Emergency Care.” Pediatrics 132 (2): S140-S146. Duncan, Greg J. and Aaron J. Sojourner. 2014. “Can Intensive Early Childhood Intervention Programs Eliminate Income-Based Cognitive and Achievement Gaps?” Presented for Legislative Leadership Institute. Duncan, Greg J., Ariel Kalil, and Kathleen M. Ziol-Guest. 2015. “Parent Income-Based Gaps in Schooling, Earnings and Family Income: Cross-Cohort Trends in the NLSYs and the PSID.” Working Paper. Duncan, Greg J., Kathleen M. Ziol-Guest, and Ariel Kalil. 2010. “Early- Childhood Poverty and Adult Attainment, Behavior, and Health.” Child Development 81 (1): 306-325. Duncan, Greg J. and Katherine Magnuson. 2011. “Introduction: The American Dream, Then and Now.” In Duncan, Greg J. and Richard H. Murnane, eds., Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. 47-69. ______. 2013. “Investing in Preschool Programs.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 27 (2): 109-132. Duncan, Greg J., Katherine Magnuson, and Elizabeth Votruba-Drzal. 2014. “Boosting Family Income to Promote Child Development.” Future of Children 24 (1): 99-120. Duncan, Greg J. and Richard J. Murnane. 2011. Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. References | 349
Eissa, Nada and Jeffrey B. Liebman. 1996. “Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111 (2): 605-637. Eissa, Nada and Hilary Hoynes. 2011. “Redistribution and Tax Expenditures: The Earned Income Tax Credit.” National Tax Journal 64 (2): 689-729. Evans, Gary W. and Michelle A. Schamberg. 2009. “Childhood poverty, chronic stress, and adult working memory.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 106 (16): 6545-6549. Falk, Gene and Margot L. Crandall-Hollick. 2014. “The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC): An Overview.” Congressional Research Service. Falk, Gene. 2015. “The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant: Responses to Frequently Asked Questions.” Congressional Research Service. Felitti, Vincent J., Robert F. Anda, Dale Nordenberg, David F. Williamson, Alison M. Spitz, Valerie Edwards, Mary P. Koss, and James S. Marks. 1998. “Relationship of Childhood Abuse and Household Dysfunction to Many of the Leading Causes of Death in Adults: The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 14 (4): 245-258. Figlio, David, Jonathan Guryan, Krzysztof Karbownik, and Jeffrey Roth. 2014. “The Effects of Poor Neonatal Health on Children’s Cognitive Development.” American Economic Review 104 (12): 3921-3955. Fitzpatrick, Maria D. 2008. “Starting School at Four: The Effect of Universal Pre-Kindergarten on Children’s Academic Achievement.” The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 8 (1). Flaherty, E.G., R. Thompson, H. Dubowitz, E.M. Harvey, D.J. English, M.D. Everson, L.J. Proctor, and D.K. Runyan. 2013. “Adverse Childhood Experiences and Child Health in Early Adolescence.” Journal of the American Medical Association Pediatrics 167 (7): 622-629. Fryer, Roland G., Jr. 2014. “Injecting Charter School Best Practices into Traditional Public Schools: Evidence from Field Experiments.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129 (3): 1335-1407. 350 | References
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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when a hardworking American loses h
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1 INCLUSIVE
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CHAPTER 5 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
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APPENDIXES A. Report to the Preside
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3.4. Percent Gap Between Actual and
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6.6. Relationship between Output Gr
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C H A P T E R 1 INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN
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To promote inclusive growth, both c
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Percent 20 15 Figure 1-1 Share of I
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Table 1-1 Increase in Income Share
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Figure 1-3 Distribution of Househol
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narrows the pool of human capital t
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over the past several decades has b
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Figure 1-6a The "Great Gatsby Curve
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Figure 1-7 Change in Employment by
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and sellers—consumer and producer
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Percent 15 10 Figure 1-9 Corporate
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Percent 30 Figure 1-11 Share of Wor
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Figure 1-12 Real Construction Costs
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promoting equality of opportunity;
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the division of rents, they can red
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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cold weather.1 The economy rebounde
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Box 2-1: Impact of Oil Price Declin
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Roughly speaking, the decline in th
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Percent of GDP 10 Figure 2-3 Federa
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Figure 2-5 Government Purchases as
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13 percent of GDP. Until 1990, Stat
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of new purchases.2 The increase in
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Figure 2-8 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 2-10 Rates of Part-Time Work
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less than a tenth of the overall de
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Business fixed investment grew 3.1
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Percent 10 Figure 2-14 Personal Sav
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BEA revises the official statistics
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Index* 100 Figure 2-16 Real Income
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Box 2-5: Are Official Estimates of
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of consumer surplus, which should,
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Figure 2-19 National House Price In
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Box 2-6: Constraints on Housing Sup
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and also was estimated in recent re
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market. Nevertheless, the construct
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Figure 2-23 Net Investment as a Sha
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Percent 80 Figure 2-25 Total Payout
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Figure 2-28 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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Figure 2-30 Sources of Productivity
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Figure 2-32 Nominal Wage Growth Ove
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Figure 2-35 Long-Term Inflation Exp
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Percent 18 Figure 2-36 Nominal 10-Y
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Table 2-1 Selected Interest Rates,
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are close to those projected by the
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International Economics (Petri and
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History Forecast 1953:Q2 to 2015:Q3
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inflation up to 2007 and then expec
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Upside and Downside Forecast Risks.
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earlier forecasts. Figure 3-1 shows
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Real GDP/WAP Growth 2011-2014 Figur
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economists would expect capital dee
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Figure 3-i Actual and Forecasted Wo
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affected the demographic trajectory
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over the first three quarters of 20
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Percentage Points 35 30 Figure 3-7
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the President for a discussion of t
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Box 3-2: Market Volatility in the S
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potential for rapid spillovers betw
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absorb unexpectedly high losses. In
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Box 3-3: Commodity Prices and Infla
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In November 2015, the IMF voted to
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Billions of U.S. Dollars 250 200 15
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U.S. exports are 12.5 percent of th
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Box 3-4: The Importance of the Tran
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The challenging environment for U.S
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child’s environment. Despite the
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and Rossin-Slater 2015).5 These adv
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Figure 4-2 Official Poverty Rate fo
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Figure 4-3 Likelihood of Scoring Ve
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Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
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Figure 4-7 Achievement Gap is Large
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Hours per Week 24 22 20 Figure 4-9
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Percent 65 Figure 4-11 Preschool En
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Box 4-1: Gender Differences in Earl
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Card and Rothstein 2007; Dickerson
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depend on how parents choose to inv
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y many factors, which makes it diff
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Box 4-3: Federal Early Childhood Pr
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program served over 45 million Amer
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Reauthorization Act of 2015, signed
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document that desegregation of hosp
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to alleviate hunger by supplementin
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adulthood (Hoynes, Schanzenbach, an
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of preschoolers support their child
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program and up to 15 years after co
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a longer period than is true of mos
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to be higher today than in the past
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Figure 4-18 Most Early Childhood Pr
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the preschool programs in Georgia a
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test scores by 6 to 9 percent of a
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Figure 4-20 Increase in Probability
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increased earnings by 31 percent (F
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Figure 5-1 Labor Productivity Growt
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Competition and Dynamism Play a Cri
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adopts pre-existing technology or k
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Figure 5-2 Quantity and Volume of V
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Box 5-2: Occupational Licensing One
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in consumer welfare as they erode t
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Finally, some workers may acquire s
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Box 5-3: Major Research Initiatives
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Figure 5-5 Federal and Nonfederal R
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Figure 5-7 Federal Research and Dev
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Figure 5-10 Percent of Patent Appli
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percent of all cases in 2009 to ove
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(Bloom, Sadun, and Van Reenen 2012)
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Figure 5-12 Estimated Annual Shipme
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was relatively flat through the 200
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In contrast, recent papers by Autor
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services, such as 4G LTE. At the sa
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Box 5-5: The On-Demand Economy “O
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vision of services that may not hav
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Figure 5-17 Household Income and Ho
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about half since ConnectED was laun
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C H A P T E R 6 THE ECONOMIC BENEFI
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enefits to a wide set of consumers
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Figure 6-1 Composition of Public Sp
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Age, Years 29 27 Figure 6-3 Average
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Type CAN FRA DEU ITA JPN GBR USA 20
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Box 6-1: Clean Energy and Transport
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Industry Government Investment Dire
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infrastructure investment is crucia
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Box 6-2: Elasticity of Output to Pu
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and output ignore potential inter-t
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Thus, ideas are exchanged, workers
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kilometers of road) in 1983 resulte
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Prospects for Increased Infrastruct
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Figure 6-6 Relationship between Out
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there is a clear demand for an infr
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user fees or shadow tolls.11 Throug
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to transportation facilities caused
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Tax-Exempt Bonds Transportation inf
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Recent Legislation In December 2015
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enefit freight movements. The Act a
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C H A P T E R 7 THE 70 TH ANNIVERSA
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and composition of the labor force,
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it, “[t]he CEA and its chairman h
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jected reductions in the deficit. I
Page 304 and 305: example, the Environmental Protecti
Page 306 and 307: Keyserling and the Council particip
Page 308 and 309: Countercyclical Policy in Other Adm
Page 310 and 311: In designing the Recovery Act, one
Page 312 and 313: incorporating risk and discounting
Page 314 and 315: and Freddie had lots of friends in
Page 316 and 317: (USEC). USEC was responsible for pr
Page 318 and 319: can be reported to him as the perce
Page 320 and 321: By contrast, Keyserling had activel
Page 322 and 323: goals of the government in their ar
Page 324 and 325: Gather, Analyze, and Interpret Info
Page 326 and 327: the unemployment insurance system w
Page 328 and 329: an informational basis for appropri
Page 330 and 331: had experience working in governmen
Page 332 and 333: emained. I joined forces with Budge
Page 334: Of course, relying on short-term ac
Page 337 and 338: Carson, Ann. 2015. “Prisoners in
Page 339 and 340: Kleiner, Morris M. and Alan B. Krue
Page 341 and 342: Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Page 343 and 344: Kocin, Paul J. and Louis Uccellini.
Page 345 and 346: Fajgelbaum, Pablo and Amit Khandelw
Page 347 and 348: World Bank. 2016. “Global Economi
Page 349 and 350: Belfield, Clive R., Milagros Nores,
Page 351 and 352: Campbell, Jennifer A., Rebekah J. W
Page 353: Council of Economic Advisers. 2014.
Page 357 and 358: Hastings, Justine S. and Ebonya Was
Page 359 and 360: Kalil, Ariel, Rebecca Ryan, and Mic
Page 361 and 362: Maxfield, Michelle. 2013. “The Ef
Page 363 and 364: Olds, David, John Eckenrode, Charle
Page 365 and 366: Solon, Gary. 1992. “Intergenerati
Page 367 and 368: Wherry, Laura R., Sarah Miller, Rob
Page 369 and 370: Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman,
Page 371 and 372: Graham, Stuart JH, Cheryl Grim, Tar
Page 373 and 374: Melitz, Marc J. 2003. “The Impact
Page 375 and 376: ______. 2015. “Patent Assertions:
Page 377 and 378: Congressional Budget Office. 2009.
Page 379 and 380: Peshkin, David G., Todd E. Hoerner,
Page 381 and 382: ______. 2001. Designing U.S. Econom
Page 383 and 384: Krueger, Alan B. 2000. “Honest Br
Page 385 and 386: Weidenbaum, Murray L. 1983. “An E
Page 388 and 389: letter of transmittal Council of Ec
Page 390: Council Members and Their Dates of
Page 393 and 394: The Members of the Council Sandra E
Page 395 and 396: In May, the Council issued a report
Page 397 and 398: Nirupama S. Rao . . . . . . . . . .
Page 399 and 400: Jessica Schumer resigned from her p
Page 402 and 403: C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES
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General Notes Detail in these table
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Table B-1. Percent changes in real
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro
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Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co
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Table B-8. New private housing unit
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Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri
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Table B-11. Civilian labor force, 1
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Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Year or quarter Table B-16. Product
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Table B-18. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-24. Estimated
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Table B-25. Bond yields and interes
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