ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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Figure 4-13 Low Birth Weight by Maternal Socioeconomic Status, 1989—2011 Percent 20 15 Low Socioeconomic Status 2011 10 5 Policy Interventions in Early Health High Socioeconomic Status 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is defined as African-American, less than a high school degree, and unmarried. High SES is defined as White, college-educated, and married. Source: Aizer and Currie (2014). Home Visitation Several types of public investments target child development from before children are born and throughout early childhood. Home visitation programs, including those that are Federally funded by the Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting program, rely on trained professionals, including nurses, teachers, or social workers, to visit families during pregnancy and shortly after a baby is born to provide a range of health, development, and parenting information. Depending on the model, this may include parental observations and instruction, nutrition and wellness education, and psychological consultations. The goal of home visitation programs is to ensure a healthy, safe, and supportive environment in the first years of a child’s life. The programs tend to be targeted toward children who are most at risk of receiving insufficient prenatal and antenatal health care, including children of first-time, low-income, less-educated and/or unemployed mothers. These programs—which were expanded through new grants to States under the Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA)—have shown promise in reducing mortality among infants between 4 weeks and 1 year of age born to mothers of low socioeconomic status. Poverty has been a major contributor Inequality in Early Childhood and Effective Public Policy Interventions | 177
Box 4-3: Federal Early Childhood Programs: An Overview1 Various Federal programs help to close gaps in early investments in health and education, as well as family resources, and improve later-life outcomes. Millions of children benefit from this funding, often in the form of grants to States, each year. In many cases, Federal policies and investments complement, enhance, and expand State and local investments and policies. Child Care and Development Fund: Assists low-income families in obtaining child care so they can work or attend training/education. The program, which is administered through block grants to States, also improves the quality of child care and promotes coordination among early childhood development and afterschool programs. In FY 2014, this $5 billion fund served about 1.4 million children each month. Head Start: Promotes school readiness of 3- and 4-year-old children from low-income families through education, health, social and other services. Teachers facilitate individualized learning experiences to promote children’s readiness for school and beyond. Children also receive health and development screenings, nutritious meals, oral health and mental health support. Additionally, parents and families are supported in achieving their own goals, such as housing stability, continued education, and financial security. Together with Early Head Start, this $9 billion program served approximately 1 million children and pregnant women in FY 2014 through grants to local entities. Early Head Start: Provides early, continuous, intensive, and comprehensive child development and family support services to lowincome infants and toddlers and their families, and pregnant women and their families. This program also includes the Early Head Start-Child Care Partnerships, which provide funding to States and local communities to increase the number of high-quality early learning opportunities for infants and toddlers across the country. Preschool Development Grants: Supports States in building or enhancing a preschool program infrastructure that would enable the delivery of high-quality preschool services to children, and expanding high-quality preschool programs in targeted communities that would serve as models for expanding preschool to all 4-year-olds from low- and moderate-income families. This $250 million grant supported 18 States in FY 2015 and is funded at $250 million for FY 2016. Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA): Serves infants and toddlers through age 2 and children ages 3-5 with developmental delays or high probabilities of developmental delays. These $791 million 1 Figures for funding and number of beneficiaries are for the most recent year for which comprehensive data were available on February 1, 2016. 178 | Chapter 4
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
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C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
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economic report of the president To
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when a hardworking American loses h
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the annual report of the council of
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C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1 INCLUSIVE
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CHAPTER 5 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
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APPENDIXES A. Report to the Preside
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3.4. Percent Gap Between Actual and
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6.6. Relationship between Output Gr
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C H A P T E R 1 INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN
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To promote inclusive growth, both c
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Percent 20 15 Figure 1-1 Share of I
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Table 1-1 Increase in Income Share
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Figure 1-3 Distribution of Househol
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narrows the pool of human capital t
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over the past several decades has b
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Figure 1-6a The "Great Gatsby Curve
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Figure 1-7 Change in Employment by
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and sellers—consumer and producer
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Percent 15 10 Figure 1-9 Corporate
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Percent 30 Figure 1-11 Share of Wor
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Figure 1-12 Real Construction Costs
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promoting equality of opportunity;
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the division of rents, they can red
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C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
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cold weather.1 The economy rebounde
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Box 2-1: Impact of Oil Price Declin
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Roughly speaking, the decline in th
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Percent of GDP 10 Figure 2-3 Federa
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Figure 2-5 Government Purchases as
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13 percent of GDP. Until 1990, Stat
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of new purchases.2 The increase in
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Figure 2-8 Actual and Consensus For
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Figure 2-10 Rates of Part-Time Work
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less than a tenth of the overall de
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Business fixed investment grew 3.1
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Percent 10 Figure 2-14 Personal Sav
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BEA revises the official statistics
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Index* 100 Figure 2-16 Real Income
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Box 2-5: Are Official Estimates of
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of consumer surplus, which should,
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Figure 2-19 National House Price In
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Box 2-6: Constraints on Housing Sup
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and also was estimated in recent re
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market. Nevertheless, the construct
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Figure 2-23 Net Investment as a Sha
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Percent 80 Figure 2-25 Total Payout
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Figure 2-28 Foreign Real GDP and U.
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Figure 2-30 Sources of Productivity
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Figure 2-32 Nominal Wage Growth Ove
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Figure 2-35 Long-Term Inflation Exp
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Percent 18 Figure 2-36 Nominal 10-Y
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Table 2-1 Selected Interest Rates,
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are close to those projected by the
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International Economics (Petri and
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History Forecast 1953:Q2 to 2015:Q3
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inflation up to 2007 and then expec
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Upside and Downside Forecast Risks.
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earlier forecasts. Figure 3-1 shows
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Real GDP/WAP Growth 2011-2014 Figur
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economists would expect capital dee
Page 131 and 132: Figure 3-i Actual and Forecasted Wo
Page 133 and 134: affected the demographic trajectory
Page 135 and 136: over the first three quarters of 20
Page 137 and 138: Percentage Points 35 30 Figure 3-7
Page 139 and 140: the President for a discussion of t
Page 141 and 142: Box 3-2: Market Volatility in the S
Page 143 and 144: potential for rapid spillovers betw
Page 145 and 146: absorb unexpectedly high losses. In
Page 147 and 148: Box 3-3: Commodity Prices and Infla
Page 149 and 150: In November 2015, the IMF voted to
Page 151 and 152: Billions of U.S. Dollars 250 200 15
Page 153 and 154: U.S. exports are 12.5 percent of th
Page 155 and 156: Box 3-4: The Importance of the Tran
Page 157 and 158: The challenging environment for U.S
Page 159 and 160: child’s environment. Despite the
Page 161 and 162: and Rossin-Slater 2015).5 These adv
Page 163 and 164: Figure 4-2 Official Poverty Rate fo
Page 165 and 166: Figure 4-3 Likelihood of Scoring Ve
Page 167 and 168: Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Page 169 and 170: Figure 4-7 Achievement Gap is Large
Page 171 and 172: Hours per Week 24 22 20 Figure 4-9
Page 173 and 174: Percent 65 Figure 4-11 Preschool En
Page 175 and 176: Box 4-1: Gender Differences in Earl
Page 177 and 178: Card and Rothstein 2007; Dickerson
Page 179 and 180: depend on how parents choose to inv
Page 181: y many factors, which makes it diff
Page 185 and 186: program served over 45 million Amer
Page 187 and 188: Reauthorization Act of 2015, signed
Page 189 and 190: document that desegregation of hosp
Page 191 and 192: to alleviate hunger by supplementin
Page 193 and 194: adulthood (Hoynes, Schanzenbach, an
Page 195 and 196: of preschoolers support their child
Page 197 and 198: program and up to 15 years after co
Page 199 and 200: a longer period than is true of mos
Page 201 and 202: to be higher today than in the past
Page 203 and 204: Figure 4-18 Most Early Childhood Pr
Page 205 and 206: the preschool programs in Georgia a
Page 207 and 208: test scores by 6 to 9 percent of a
Page 209 and 210: Figure 4-20 Increase in Probability
Page 211 and 212: increased earnings by 31 percent (F
Page 213 and 214: Figure 5-1 Labor Productivity Growt
Page 215 and 216: Competition and Dynamism Play a Cri
Page 217 and 218: adopts pre-existing technology or k
Page 219 and 220: Figure 5-2 Quantity and Volume of V
Page 221 and 222: Box 5-2: Occupational Licensing One
Page 223 and 224: in consumer welfare as they erode t
Page 225 and 226: Finally, some workers may acquire s
Page 227 and 228: Box 5-3: Major Research Initiatives
Page 229 and 230: Figure 5-5 Federal and Nonfederal R
Page 231 and 232: Figure 5-7 Federal Research and Dev
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Figure 5-10 Percent of Patent Appli
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percent of all cases in 2009 to ove
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(Bloom, Sadun, and Van Reenen 2012)
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Figure 5-12 Estimated Annual Shipme
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was relatively flat through the 200
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In contrast, recent papers by Autor
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services, such as 4G LTE. At the sa
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Box 5-5: The On-Demand Economy “O
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vision of services that may not hav
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Figure 5-17 Household Income and Ho
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about half since ConnectED was laun
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C H A P T E R 6 THE ECONOMIC BENEFI
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enefits to a wide set of consumers
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Figure 6-1 Composition of Public Sp
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Age, Years 29 27 Figure 6-3 Average
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Type CAN FRA DEU ITA JPN GBR USA 20
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Box 6-1: Clean Energy and Transport
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Industry Government Investment Dire
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infrastructure investment is crucia
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Box 6-2: Elasticity of Output to Pu
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and output ignore potential inter-t
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Thus, ideas are exchanged, workers
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kilometers of road) in 1983 resulte
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Prospects for Increased Infrastruct
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Figure 6-6 Relationship between Out
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there is a clear demand for an infr
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user fees or shadow tolls.11 Throug
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to transportation facilities caused
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Tax-Exempt Bonds Transportation inf
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Recent Legislation In December 2015
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enefit freight movements. The Act a
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C H A P T E R 7 THE 70 TH ANNIVERSA
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and composition of the labor force,
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it, “[t]he CEA and its chairman h
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jected reductions in the deficit. I
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example, the Environmental Protecti
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Keyserling and the Council particip
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Countercyclical Policy in Other Adm
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In designing the Recovery Act, one
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incorporating risk and discounting
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and Freddie had lots of friends in
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(USEC). USEC was responsible for pr
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can be reported to him as the perce
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By contrast, Keyserling had activel
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goals of the government in their ar
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Gather, Analyze, and Interpret Info
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the unemployment insurance system w
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an informational basis for appropri
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had experience working in governmen
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emained. I joined forces with Budge
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Of course, relying on short-term ac
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Carson, Ann. 2015. “Prisoners in
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Kleiner, Morris M. and Alan B. Krue
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Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
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Kocin, Paul J. and Louis Uccellini.
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Fajgelbaum, Pablo and Amit Khandelw
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World Bank. 2016. “Global Economi
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Belfield, Clive R., Milagros Nores,
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Campbell, Jennifer A., Rebekah J. W
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Council of Economic Advisers. 2014.
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Eissa, Nada and Jeffrey B. Liebman.
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Hastings, Justine S. and Ebonya Was
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Kalil, Ariel, Rebecca Ryan, and Mic
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Maxfield, Michelle. 2013. “The Ef
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Olds, David, John Eckenrode, Charle
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Solon, Gary. 1992. “Intergenerati
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Wherry, Laura R., Sarah Miller, Rob
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Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman,
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Graham, Stuart JH, Cheryl Grim, Tar
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Melitz, Marc J. 2003. “The Impact
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______. 2015. “Patent Assertions:
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Congressional Budget Office. 2009.
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Peshkin, David G., Todd E. Hoerner,
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______. 2001. Designing U.S. Econom
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Krueger, Alan B. 2000. “Honest Br
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Weidenbaum, Murray L. 1983. “An E
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letter of transmittal Council of Ec
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Council Members and Their Dates of
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The Members of the Council Sandra E
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In May, the Council issued a report
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Nirupama S. Rao . . . . . . . . . .
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Jessica Schumer resigned from her p
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C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES
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General Notes Detail in these table
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Table B-1. Percent changes in real
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Table B-2. Gross domestic product,
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Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro
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Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co
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Table B-8. New private housing unit
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Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri
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Table B-11. Civilian labor force, 1
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Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym
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Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul
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Year or quarter Table B-16. Product
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Table B-18. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla
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Table B-22. State and local governm
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End of month Table B-24. Estimated
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Table B-25. Bond yields and interes
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