The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

How we relate to the oceans is, to a considerable extent, a function of perspective; and it is
important to take note that our views have changed over time. It was only after the Age of
Discovery (16 th to 18 th centuries) that we began to think of the many seas as one ocean. 6 For much
of our history, the seas have appeared to be a realm without natural features, save coastlines. In
time, we learned that the waters below have bathymetric features, as well as variations of salinity
and temperature, that are critical to the development and maintenance of currents. As a result of
technology that permits us to plumb the depths, we now know that such characteristics affect our
own interaction with the oceans. For much of our history, the oceans were seen as an
inexhaustible resource that was beyond our ability to affect in any substantive way, as we have
always done with the land. This vision has long influenced how we relate to the maritime space,
as when Shakespeare wrote that “my bounty is as boundless as the Sea.” 7 In recent decades,
however, environmental science has made us aware of the significant (and frequently devastating)
impact our species has on the maritime realm. 8 For much of our history, the oceans have been
associated with danger. The sea voyages of early mariners often hugged the shoreline, fearing
what lay in the deep-seas beyond the horizon. This is reflected in the warning found on the edge
of sea charts that read hic sunt dracones (tr. here are dragons) and in the old Breton prayer that
begins “Thy Sea, O God, is so great, and my boat so small.” 9 The fear of rough seas will never
entirely disappear, although it is now likely accompanied by a scientific curiosity about the
interaction of water and weather.
This paper will identify some of the major influences on our use of the oceans today and in the
decades comprising the first half of the 21 st Century. While it does not focus specifically on
Canada’s relationship with the maritime realm, it follows publications prepared by the Royal
Canadian Navy (RCN), namely Leadmark: the Navy’s Strategy for 2020 (2001) and Securing
Canada’s Ocean Frontiers (2005). Like those documents, this paper approaches the maritime
realm as an environment in which economic, political and military activity occurs. Although its
readership is likely to be naval, the discussion that follows includes issues that are not restricted
to the role of navies and are not specific to national and/or international security. This is because
discussing the maritime environment ought not to be restricted only to the most obvious causes of
international conflict. Adopting a broader perspective and describing what that environment
might be like in the future is, however, not an easy undertaking. A widely acclaimed report
published in 2013 asserts that “[t]he marine world in 2030 will be almost unrecognisable owing to
the rise of emerging countries, new consumer classes and resource demand.” 10 This paper must
also include, therefore, a review of the use of the ocean space, economic challenges, legal
disputes, climate change, as well as new geopolitical considerations (i.e., the rise of the
Indo-Pacific, Sino-US strategic competition and the increased interest in the Arctic).
6 Revelle, “The Ocean”, p. 61.
7 William Shakespeare, Act 2, Scene 2, Romeo and Juliet.
8 Marine conservation biologist Callum Roberts writes that “with an ever accelerating tide of human
impact, the oceans have changed more in the last thirty years than in all of human history before.” See his
Oceans of Life: The Fate of Man and the Sea (Penguin Books: New York, 2012), p. 3.
9 The first verse of the prayer captures the helplessness of Man’s relationship with the overwhelming reaches
of the ocean environment: “Thy sea, O God, is so great, And my boat so small. It cannot be that any happy
fate, Will me befall. Save as Thy goodness opens paths for me, Through the consuming vastness of the sea.”
10 Lloyd’s Register Group, Qinetic and the University of Strathclyde, Global Marine Trends 2030 (London,
2013), p. 6.
2 DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085