The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

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Template in use: SR Advanced Template_EN (110414).dot © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2016 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2016
Abstract … Drawing upon a wide array of primary and secondary sources, this report concludes that maritime issues will be increasingly prominent as the current century unfolds and likely far more so than the last decades of the 20th. Increasing exploitation of marine resources and reliance on the maritime realm to sustain populations and to support socio-economic development are leading to an entwining of ecological stresses and political frictions. Efforts to regulate the ensuing tensions will often become, as they have been, contentious. These developments, which will be further magnified by the shift in power to the Indo-Pacific region (particularly the rise of China and Sino-US competition) as well as many uncertainties regarding the opening of the Arctic region, are underscoring the strategic significance of the ocean space. As a result, naval power will retain its strategic significance. Being an agile instrument of national power in order to deal with security threats and/or to conduct diplomatic and constabulary missions will continue to be the defining requirements of modern navies. While the strategic objectives of seapower remain unchanged, the maritime operating environment will be most likely focussed on the littorals where human social and economic activity is intensifying and state and non-state actors will be operating with increasingly sophisticated capabilities. Modern navies require a broad range of platforms and capabilities to be combat-effective, but the proliferation of such technologies will substantially increase the level of risk to ships and crews, creating additional challenges to many fleets that have already experienced significant reductions. Significance to Defence and Security This report was prepared at the request of the Directorate of Naval Strategy. It is intended to inform future analysis of the environment in which the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is likely to operate and to inform the preparation of both future doctrine and concepts. While most naval operations are likely to involve some form of constabulary tasking not involving the use of armed force, the strategic utility of a navy is proportional to its ability to respond across the full spectrum of possible maritime missions: from supporting other government departments (OGDs), to “showing the flag”, to humanitarian aid and disaster relief, to coercive diplomacy and, ultimately, to war. This report underscores the strategic relevance of naval power in a future that will be characterised by maritime considerations that appear to be growing in significance, in terms of socio-economic and political impact. Second, while the subject matter and conclusions are not exclusively Canadian in their focus, they are nonetheless directly relevant to the preparation of assessments of Canada’s maritime strategic interests and the capabilities required to address those interests. Although the report is not specifically about Canada’s interaction with the maritime environment, it highlights issues that will be addressed by both RCN planning and force development. DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085 i
Page 1: The Future Maritime Operating Envir
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Abstract … ....
Page 7 and 8: List of Figures Figure 1: One World
Page 9 and 10: Acknowledgements I am grateful to a
Page 11 and 12: 1 Introduction 1 The maritime envir
Page 13 and 14: Much of the discussion that follows
Page 15 and 16: 2 The Maritime Environment as a Glo
Page 17 and 18: finfish and shellfish are farmed. 3
Page 19 and 20: 2.2 Undersea Communications and Min
Page 21 and 22: esources) there will be continued g
Page 23 and 24: 2.4 Regulation of Ocean Space The U
Page 25 and 26: 3 Challenges to Order in the Mariti
Page 27 and 28: impossible, and certainly not a sho
Page 29 and 30: esult, confrontations between gover
Page 31 and 32: 3.2 Submarine Cables Given their si
Page 33 and 34: jurisdiction.” 99 There is, howev
Page 35 and 36: of al Qaeda had tried to buy into a
Page 37 and 38: 3.4.1 Chokepoints The existence of
Page 39 and 40: There is, moreover, a major securit
Page 41 and 42: In some regions, such as off the Ho
Page 43 and 44: will not be reduced by decisions of
Page 45 and 46: EEZ and protected it by using more
Page 47 and 48: access. 173 They will also alter th
Page 49 and 50: ecently noted, “[e]conomic growth
Page 51 and 52: evenue. Despite improvements in Sin
Page 53 and 54:
Table 4: Overview of Major Indo-Pac
Page 55 and 56:
4.2 US Decline and Sino-US Competit
Page 57 and 58:
joint statement regarding Beijing
Page 59 and 60:
order upheld by the US since 1945 p
Page 61 and 62:
population uncomfortable with a rev
Page 63 and 64:
An important element of the 2012 st
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including the freedom of the seas.
Page 67 and 68:
premiums for the NSR make the voyag
Page 69 and 70:
activity in the Arctic could preced
Page 71 and 72:
Alongside the impact of Russian pol
Page 73 and 74:
5 Mitigating the Challenges Maritim
Page 75 and 76:
Even in areas that directly intrude
Page 77 and 78:
6 The Role of Navies What is the ro
Page 79 and 80:
The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is an
Page 81 and 82:
More recently, a Chinese naval frig
Page 83 and 84:
6.4 Sea Control and Sea Denial 343
Page 85 and 86:
quite possibly, the sea denial capa
Page 87 and 88:
detection and counter-detection. It
Page 89 and 90:
Whether they are conventional or nu
Page 91 and 92:
theorists that confronting a modern
Page 93 and 94:
The development of cyber capabiliti
Page 95 and 96:
middle-Power navies will be unable
Page 97 and 98:
those hostilities ended asserted th
Page 99 and 100:
maritime patrol aircraft in controv
Page 101 and 102:
traditional maritime Powers. For ri
Page 103 and 104:
References .. Primary Sources Arcti
Page 105 and 106:
_____, Congressional Budget Office.
Page 107 and 108:
Clark, Bryan. The Emerging Era in U
Page 109 and 110:
Krepinevich, Andrew. Why AirSea Bat
Page 111 and 112:
Till, Geoffrey. Seapower - A Guide
Page 113 and 114:
Burnett, Douglas R., Tara M. Davenp
Page 115 and 116:
Grygiel, Jakub J.. “The Dilemmas
Page 117 and 118:
Montgomery, Evan Braden. “Contest
Page 119 and 120:
Weir, Gary E.. “The answer may be
Page 121 and 122:
“Indian Navy Plans to Acquire 50
Page 123 and 124:
“Pew, National Geographic Applaud
Page 125 and 126:
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security mar
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