The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

Abstract …
Drawing upon a wide array of primary and secondary sources, this report concludes that maritime
issues will be increasingly prominent as the current century unfolds and likely far more so than
the last decades of the 20th. Increasing exploitation of marine resources and reliance on the
maritime realm to sustain populations and to support socio-economic development are leading to
an entwining of ecological stresses and political frictions. Efforts to regulate the ensuing tensions
will often become, as they have been, contentious. These developments, which will be further
magnified by the shift in power to the Indo-Pacific region (particularly the rise of China and
Sino-US competition) as well as many uncertainties regarding the opening of the Arctic region,
are underscoring the strategic significance of the ocean space. As a result, naval power will retain
its strategic significance. Being an agile instrument of national power in order to deal with
security threats and/or to conduct diplomatic and constabulary missions will continue to be the
defining requirements of modern navies. While the strategic objectives of seapower remain
unchanged, the maritime operating environment will be most likely focussed on the littorals
where human social and economic activity is intensifying and state and non-state actors will be
operating with increasingly sophisticated capabilities. Modern navies require a broad range of
platforms and capabilities to be combat-effective, but the proliferation of such technologies will
substantially increase the level of risk to ships and crews, creating additional challenges to many
fleets that have already experienced significant reductions.
Significance to Defence and Security
This report was prepared at the request of the Directorate of Naval Strategy. It is intended to
inform future analysis of the environment in which the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is likely to
operate and to inform the preparation of both future doctrine and concepts. While most naval
operations are likely to involve some form of constabulary tasking not involving the use of armed
force, the strategic utility of a navy is proportional to its ability to respond across the full
spectrum of possible maritime missions: from supporting other government departments (OGDs),
to “showing the flag”, to humanitarian aid and disaster relief, to coercive diplomacy and,
ultimately, to war. This report underscores the strategic relevance of naval power in a future that
will be characterised by maritime considerations that appear to be growing in significance, in
terms of socio-economic and political impact. Second, while the subject matter and conclusions
are not exclusively Canadian in their focus, they are nonetheless directly relevant to the
preparation of assessments of Canada’s maritime strategic interests and the capabilities required
to address those interests. Although the report is not specifically about Canada’s interaction with
the maritime environment, it highlights issues that will be addressed by both RCN planning and
force development.
DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085
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