The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

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of the 10 th largest world port. Interestingly, those regions with inefficient facilities to engage in seaborne trade—e.g., in Africa—continue to lag behind, and are forced to endure much lower rates of economic growth. 53 Figure 4: Global Shipping Density. Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Ph.D. Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University. Copyrighted. Used with permission. Table 2: The Top 10 World Container Ports. Rank Port, Country Volume – 2013 Volume – 2012 Volume – 2011 million TEUs million TEUs million TEUs 1 Shanghai, China 33.62 32.53 31.74 2 Singapore 32.6 31.65 29.94 3 Shenzen, China 23.28 22.94 22.57 4 Hong Kong, China 22.35 23.12 24.38 5 Busan, South Korea 17.69 17.04 16.18 6 Nigbo-Zhoushan, China 17.33 16.83 14.72 7 Quingdao, China 15.52 14.50 13.02 8 Guangzhou, China 15.31 14.74 14.42 9 Dubai, UAE 13.64 13.30 13.00 10 Tianjin, China 13.01 12.30 11.59 11 Rotterdam, Netherlands 11.62 11.87 11.88 19 Los Angeles, USA 7.87 8.08 7.94 21 Long Beach, USA 6.73 6.05 6.06 47 Metro Vancouver, Canada 2.83 2.71 2.51 Source: The data is taken from World Shipping Council, Top World 50 Container Ports [www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/global-trade/top-50-world-container-ports]. 53 Hoovestal, Globalization Contained, p. 59. 12 DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085
2.4 Regulation of Ocean Space The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has been called the “constitution of the sea” and it is the normative/legal framework within which many maritime issues will continue to be addressed by states. 54 In effect since 1994, UNCLOS seeks to reconcile the traditional emphasis on the freedom of the seas to which all have access with more recent claims made by countries to control maritime space. To accomplish this goal, it recognises the demand by countries for exclusive control over their coastal regions (hence the creation of the 200 nautical mile wide Exclusive Economic Zones or EEZs) while reasserting the principle of an ocean commons. (Figure 5 shows the relationship between territorial seas, EEZs and the high seas.) Ships, including foreign warships and military aircraft, have the formal right of innocent passage through EEZs, as indeed they do in territorial waters. Maritime countries, however, enjoy exclusive jurisdiction over the resources found within the waters of their EEZ and on its seabed. As with any treaty, tensions have arisen over the interpretation of UNCLOS. This can be viewed as natural, particularly in a system of sovereign states. The pressure for changes in the interpretation of that agreement is a reflection of the contending interests of the states most affected. This, too, will continue in coming decades for, as one leading naval theorist has written that demand for “changes in the law of the sea derive from the manifest increase in the importance of the sea relative to the land.” 55 Looking forward, countries (presumably most) interested in maritime order will continue to see international law as both a useful tool to advance their interests and some might even see it as a common good. Resort to the law will be regarded as an acceptable means for the resolution of disputes, thereby making a positive contribution to international security. One sees this already. In recent years, maritime boundary disputes between Peru and Chile, and in the Barents Sea between Russia and Norway, were peacefully resolved: the former adjudicated by the International Court of Justice and the latter after nearly 40 years of bilateral negotiations. While armed conflict can never be excluded as a possibility, reliance on international law will likely be the most effective mechanism that prevents an escalation of many maritime disputes. 54 For the idea that UNCLOS represents a balance between exclusive and inclusive approaches to the oceans, see Natalie Klein, Maritime Security and the Law of the Sea (Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 3–18. 55 Geoffrey Till, Seapower and the Millennium (Sutton Publishing: Phoenix Mill, 2001), p. 6. DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085 13
Page 1 and 2: The Future Maritime Operating Envir
Page 3 and 4: Abstract … Drawing upon a wide ar
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Abstract … ....
Page 7 and 8: List of Figures Figure 1: One World
Page 9 and 10: Acknowledgements I am grateful to a
Page 11 and 12: 1 Introduction 1 The maritime envir
Page 13 and 14: Much of the discussion that follows
Page 15 and 16: 2 The Maritime Environment as a Glo
Page 17 and 18: finfish and shellfish are farmed. 3
Page 19 and 20: 2.2 Undersea Communications and Min
Page 21: esources) there will be continued g
Page 25 and 26: 3 Challenges to Order in the Mariti
Page 27 and 28: impossible, and certainly not a sho
Page 29 and 30: esult, confrontations between gover
Page 31 and 32: 3.2 Submarine Cables Given their si
Page 33 and 34: jurisdiction.” 99 There is, howev
Page 35 and 36: of al Qaeda had tried to buy into a
Page 37 and 38: 3.4.1 Chokepoints The existence of
Page 39 and 40: There is, moreover, a major securit
Page 41 and 42: In some regions, such as off the Ho
Page 43 and 44: will not be reduced by decisions of
Page 45 and 46: EEZ and protected it by using more
Page 47 and 48: access. 173 They will also alter th
Page 49 and 50: ecently noted, “[e]conomic growth
Page 51 and 52: evenue. Despite improvements in Sin
Page 53 and 54: Table 4: Overview of Major Indo-Pac
Page 55 and 56: 4.2 US Decline and Sino-US Competit
Page 57 and 58: joint statement regarding Beijing
Page 59 and 60: order upheld by the US since 1945 p
Page 61 and 62: population uncomfortable with a rev
Page 63 and 64: An important element of the 2012 st
Page 65 and 66: including the freedom of the seas.
Page 67 and 68: premiums for the NSR make the voyag
Page 69 and 70: activity in the Arctic could preced
Page 71 and 72: Alongside the impact of Russian pol
Page 73 and 74:
5 Mitigating the Challenges Maritim
Page 75 and 76:
Even in areas that directly intrude
Page 77 and 78:
6 The Role of Navies What is the ro
Page 79 and 80:
The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is an
Page 81 and 82:
More recently, a Chinese naval frig
Page 83 and 84:
6.4 Sea Control and Sea Denial 343
Page 85 and 86:
quite possibly, the sea denial capa
Page 87 and 88:
detection and counter-detection. It
Page 89 and 90:
Whether they are conventional or nu
Page 91 and 92:
theorists that confronting a modern
Page 93 and 94:
The development of cyber capabiliti
Page 95 and 96:
middle-Power navies will be unable
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those hostilities ended asserted th
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maritime patrol aircraft in controv
Page 101 and 102:
traditional maritime Powers. For ri
Page 103 and 104:
References .. Primary Sources Arcti
Page 105 and 106:
_____, Congressional Budget Office.
Page 107 and 108:
Clark, Bryan. The Emerging Era in U
Page 109 and 110:
Krepinevich, Andrew. Why AirSea Bat
Page 111 and 112:
Till, Geoffrey. Seapower - A Guide
Page 113 and 114:
Burnett, Douglas R., Tara M. Davenp
Page 115 and 116:
Grygiel, Jakub J.. “The Dilemmas
Page 117 and 118:
Montgomery, Evan Braden. “Contest
Page 119 and 120:
Weir, Gary E.. “The answer may be
Page 121 and 122:
“Indian Navy Plans to Acquire 50
Page 123 and 124:
“Pew, National Geographic Applaud
Page 125 and 126:
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security mar
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