The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

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List of Tables Table 1: World Container Fleet Development, 1990–2016 (in ‘000s TEUs). ............................... 11 Table 2: The Top 10 World Container Ports. ................................................................................ 12 Table 3: Flags of Registration (top 10 countries by Deadweight Tonnage). ................................. 28 Table 4: Overview of Major Indo-Pacific Navies and Coast Guards. ........................................... 43 Table 5: Defence Expenditure by US and China (in US$ billions). .............................................. 49 Table 6: USN and the PLA(N) Compared (2014)......................................................................... 49 vi DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085
Acknowledgements I am grateful to a number of people who read earlier drafts of this paper and whose comments and suggestions clarified and improved a number of areas: RAdm Ron Lloyd, RCN; Cdr. Matt Bowen, RCN; Cdr. Michelaine Lahaie, RCN; Cdr. Will Reive, RCN; Cdr. Stan Bates, RCN (ret’d); Maj. Bill Ansell, RCAF; LCdr. Alex Dieryckx; LCdr. Duncan Green, RCN; LCdr. Stephen King, RCN; LCdr. Ray Snook, RCN; Edward Black, PhD; David Rudd; Daniel Salisbury; Roy Rempel, PhD; Stephane Lefebvre; and two acquaintances who know a lot about navies and naval issues but asked that their contributions not be acknowledged. I must also recognise the contributions of two anonymous peer reviewers as many of their suggestions are incorporated in this draft. I am also grateful to the Brookings Institution (Washington, D.C.) and Professor Jean-Paul Rodrigue of Hofstra University for permission to use copyrighted material (Figures 3, 7 and 11) in this report. I would like to single out Cdr. Steve Thompson, RCN and Cdr. Tim Kerr, RCN for special mention due to their assistance in helping me conceptualise this paper and for providing insightful feedback on earlier drafts. I must also highlight the contribution of LCdr. Derek Purcell, RCN (ret’d). He and I spent many hours discussing the need for a broad analysis of the maritime operating environment and, while he retired before I first put pen to paper, many of my ideas as to how best to approach this subject flowed from those talks. DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085 vii
Page 1 and 2: The Future Maritime Operating Envir
Page 3 and 4: Abstract … Drawing upon a wide ar
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Abstract … ....
Page 7: List of Figures Figure 1: One World
Page 11 and 12: 1 Introduction 1 The maritime envir
Page 13 and 14: Much of the discussion that follows
Page 15 and 16: 2 The Maritime Environment as a Glo
Page 17 and 18: finfish and shellfish are farmed. 3
Page 19 and 20: 2.2 Undersea Communications and Min
Page 21 and 22: esources) there will be continued g
Page 23 and 24: 2.4 Regulation of Ocean Space The U
Page 25 and 26: 3 Challenges to Order in the Mariti
Page 27 and 28: impossible, and certainly not a sho
Page 29 and 30: esult, confrontations between gover
Page 31 and 32: 3.2 Submarine Cables Given their si
Page 33 and 34: jurisdiction.” 99 There is, howev
Page 35 and 36: of al Qaeda had tried to buy into a
Page 37 and 38: 3.4.1 Chokepoints The existence of
Page 39 and 40: There is, moreover, a major securit
Page 41 and 42: In some regions, such as off the Ho
Page 43 and 44: will not be reduced by decisions of
Page 45 and 46: EEZ and protected it by using more
Page 47 and 48: access. 173 They will also alter th
Page 49 and 50: ecently noted, “[e]conomic growth
Page 51 and 52: evenue. Despite improvements in Sin
Page 53 and 54: Table 4: Overview of Major Indo-Pac
Page 55 and 56: 4.2 US Decline and Sino-US Competit
Page 57 and 58: joint statement regarding Beijing
Page 59 and 60:
order upheld by the US since 1945 p
Page 61 and 62:
population uncomfortable with a rev
Page 63 and 64:
An important element of the 2012 st
Page 65 and 66:
including the freedom of the seas.
Page 67 and 68:
premiums for the NSR make the voyag
Page 69 and 70:
activity in the Arctic could preced
Page 71 and 72:
Alongside the impact of Russian pol
Page 73 and 74:
5 Mitigating the Challenges Maritim
Page 75 and 76:
Even in areas that directly intrude
Page 77 and 78:
6 The Role of Navies What is the ro
Page 79 and 80:
The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) is an
Page 81 and 82:
More recently, a Chinese naval frig
Page 83 and 84:
6.4 Sea Control and Sea Denial 343
Page 85 and 86:
quite possibly, the sea denial capa
Page 87 and 88:
detection and counter-detection. It
Page 89 and 90:
Whether they are conventional or nu
Page 91 and 92:
theorists that confronting a modern
Page 93 and 94:
The development of cyber capabiliti
Page 95 and 96:
middle-Power navies will be unable
Page 97 and 98:
those hostilities ended asserted th
Page 99 and 100:
maritime patrol aircraft in controv
Page 101 and 102:
traditional maritime Powers. For ri
Page 103 and 104:
References .. Primary Sources Arcti
Page 105 and 106:
_____, Congressional Budget Office.
Page 107 and 108:
Clark, Bryan. The Emerging Era in U
Page 109 and 110:
Krepinevich, Andrew. Why AirSea Bat
Page 111 and 112:
Till, Geoffrey. Seapower - A Guide
Page 113 and 114:
Burnett, Douglas R., Tara M. Davenp
Page 115 and 116:
Grygiel, Jakub J.. “The Dilemmas
Page 117 and 118:
Montgomery, Evan Braden. “Contest
Page 119 and 120:
Weir, Gary E.. “The answer may be
Page 121 and 122:
“Indian Navy Plans to Acquire 50
Page 123 and 124:
“Pew, National Geographic Applaud
Page 125 and 126:
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security mar
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