The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

In some regions, such as off the Horn of Africa, piracy is assessed to be “a self-sustaining,
low-risk/high payoff proposition” that “as a result, pirate recruiting and the frequency of attacks
will continue to grow.” 146 But because it, unlike terrorism, is a crime of opportunity, a strong
constabulary-like response by various navies has often proven effective. Recent multilateral
counter-piracy operations have proven remarkably successful as of late and the number of
incidents at sea has decreased. Confronting pirates with armed force can, therefore, have a
salutary effect. One author has even suggested that, in recent years, some pirates have remustered
as anti-piracy consultants, as that career-change has proven very rewarding in light of the
counter-piracy campaign. 147 Also, in some cases, the international response ultimately ends very
badly for pirates, as happened in 2009 with the recapture of the SS Maersk Alabama. While there
is demonstrable value in attacking symptoms, many experts nonetheless argue that the root causes
ashore cannot be addressed without more extensive and sustained international engagement.
Regardless of the programme that over time is implemented, naval forces will undoubtedly play a
role either as the principal enforcement mechanism or as a security backstop.
Even at a much reduced level, 148 piracy will likely persist given that “the piracy business model
has been highly successful” with large sums transferred to pirate groups to free hostages and
ships. As one study noted, “it is a low cost activity that pays well.” 149 In 2011, it was estimated
that US$146 million in ransoms was paid; leading one analyst to write that it was the “second
largest generator of money in Somalia. 150 In that year, the aggregate cost of piracy to the global
economy totalled about US$7 billion. 151 The impact of such illicit activity can be widespread, in
costs of lives, increased insurance rates on ships and cargo, the high-cost of hiring security
contractors to guard against pirate attacks, the expense of re-routing of ships, and increased
energy costs in order to out-distance would-be attacks. Additionally, there is the burden imposed
on national governments that are required to deploy already stretched naval forces to protect
cargo vessels and patrol shipping lanes.
While these implications might at first seem far removed from national economies, many of these
increased costs are transferred to consumers in the form of higher prices. But the impact of piracy
ought not to be exaggerated, for it cannot do long-term damage to the global economy, nor is it a
146 Gary E. Weir, “The answer may be on your Luncheon Plate: the Dilemma of Piracy in the Horn of
Africa”, Andrew Forbes (ed.), Papers in Australian Maritime Affairs, No. 30: Maritime Capacity Building
in the Asia-Pacific Region (Sea Power Centre: Canberra, 2010), p. 71.
147 “The complicated world of money, war and politics in Somalia and South Sudan: Book Review of
Alex de Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa: Money, War and the Business of Power”, The
Economist, 17 October 2015, pp. 86–87.
148 While it is assumed that the number of attacks has fallen, it is not certain how many are taking place as
shipping companies and commercial ship owners prefer not to report such incidents. Higher insurance rates
and the ability to point to a clean record probably dissuade many from reporting incidents of piracy.
See Alec Coutroubis and George Kiorktsoglou, “Maritime Piracy Analysis”, in Khalid Bichou,
Joseph S. Szyliowicz and Luca Zamparini (eds.), Maritime Transport Security: Issues, Challenges and
National Policies (Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK, 2014), p.107.
149 Martin Murphy, Small Boats, Weak States, Dirty Money – Piracy and Maritime Terrorism in the
Modern World (Columbia University Press: New York, 2009), p. 23.
150 James Brown, Pirates and Privateers: Managing the Indian Oceans Private Security Boom, Lowry
Institute for International Policy, Sydney, September 2012, p. 4. See also Christopher Alessi and
Stephanie Hanson, Combating Maritime Piracy, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 23 March 2012
[accessed on 30 June 2014 at www.cfr.org/piracy/combating-maritime-piracy/p18376].
151 IMO, International Shipping Facts and Figures, Section 6.2.1.
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