The Future Maritime Operating Environment and the Role of Naval Power

Table of Contents
Abstract … ....................................................................................................................................... i
Significance to Defence and Security ............................................................................................... i
Résumé … ....................................................................................................................................... ii
Importance pour la défense et la sécurité ........................................................................................ ii
Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. v
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. vi
Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... vii
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1
2 The Maritime Environment as a Global Commons .................................................................. 5
2.1 The Fisheries ................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 Undersea Communications and Minerals ........................................................................ 9
2.3 Seaborne Trade .............................................................................................................. 10
2.4 Regulation of Ocean Space ............................................................................................ 13
3 Challenges to Order in the Maritime Environment ................................................................. 15
3.1 Overfishing .................................................................................................................... 16
3.2 Submarine Cables .......................................................................................................... 21
3.3 Competition for Undersea Resources ............................................................................ 23
3.4 Seaborne Trade as a Security Issue ............................................................................... 24
3.4.1 Chokepoints ....................................................................................................... 27
3.4.2 Ports as Hubs ..................................................................................................... 27
3.4.3 Foreign Flagging ............................................................................................... 28
3.5 Organized Crime and Piracy .......................................................................................... 29
3.6 Regulation and International Competition..................................................................... 32
3.7 The Impact of Climate Change ...................................................................................... 35
4 Geopolitical Challenges .......................................................................................................... 38
4.1 The Rise of the Indo-Pacific .......................................................................................... 38
4.2 US Decline and Sino-US Competition .......................................................................... 45
4.2.1 Japan and Taiwan .............................................................................................. 49
4.2.2 The US Strategic Rebalance .............................................................................. 52
4.3 The Opening of the Arctic ............................................................................................. 55
5 Mitigating the Challenges ....................................................................................................... 63
6 The Role of Navies ................................................................................................................. 67
6.1 The Constabulary Role, Cooperation and Capacity Building.......................................... 67
6.2 Naval Diplomacy ........................................................................................................... 69
6.3 War at Sea ...................................................................................................................... 71
6.4 Sea Control and Sea Denial ........................................................................................... 73
DRDC-RDDC-2016-R085
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