Zero to One_ Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future ( PDFDrive )

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future will look a lot like the present.Given the interconnected geography of the contemporary world and theunprecedented destructive power of modern weaponry, it’s hard not to askwhether a large-scale social disaster could be contained were it to occur. This iswhat fuels our fears of the third possible scenario: a collapse so devastating thatwe won’t survive it.
The last of the four possibilities is the hardest one to imagine: acceleratingtakeoff toward a much better future. The end result of such a breakthrough couldtake a number of forms, but any one of them would be so different from thepresent as to defy description.Which of the four will it be?Recurrent collapse seems unlikely: the knowledge underlying civilization is sowidespread today that complete annihilation would be more probable than a longperiod of darkness followed by recovery. However, in case of extinction, there isno human future of any kind to consider.If we define the future as a time that looks different from the present, thenmost people aren’t expecting any future at all; instead, they expect comingdecades to bring more globalization, convergence, and sameness. In thisscenario, poorer countries will catch up to richer countries, and the world as awhole will reach an economic plateau. But even if a truly globalized plateauwere possible, could it last? In the best case, economic competition would bemore intense than ever before for every single person and firm on the planet.However, when you add competition to consume scarce resources, it’s hard tosee how a global plateau could last indefinitely. Without new technology torelieve competitive pressures, stagnation is likely to erupt into conflict. In caseof conflict on a global scale, stagnation collapses into extinction.That leaves the fourth scenario, in which we create new technology to make amuch better future. The most dramatic version of this outcome is called the
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Copyright © 2014 by Peter ThielAll
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PrefaceZERO TO ONEEVERY MOMENT IN B
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THE CHALLENGE OF THE FUTUREWHENEVER
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century air conditioning, and even
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STARTUP THINKINGNew technology tend
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A QUICK HISTORY OF THE ’90SThe 19
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MANIA: SEPTEMBER 1998-MARCH 2000Dot
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hurry. A South Korean firm wired us
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The entrepreneurs who stuck with Si
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dogmatically rejecting them. Instea
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In this book, we’re not intereste
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Think about how Google talks about
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between Hackers and Jaws: rap star
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RUTHLESS PEOPLEThe problem with a c
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monopoly profits provides a powerfu
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competed even harder for the standa
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Office vs. Docs, and Surface vs. Ne
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If you can’t beat a rival, it may
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In March 2001, PayPal had yet to ma
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CHARACTERISTICS OF MONOPOLYWhat doe
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3. Economies of ScaleA monopoly bus
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BUILDING A MONOPOLYBrand, scale, ne
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Silicon Valley has become obsessed
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YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKETTHE MOS
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CAN YOU CONTROL YOUR FUTURE?You can
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merry in the meantime: hence Europe
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hubris. You can still visit the Bay
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businessman, but actually his own a
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opinion exactly, so for the most pa
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Francis Bacon wrote that “the pro
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American households were saving, at
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THE RETURN OF DESIGNWhat would it m
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YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKETWe have
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to understand: we don’t live in a
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The error lies in expecting that ve
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of companies that will successfully
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After 10 years, however, the portfo
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WHAT TO DO WITH THE POWER LAWThe po
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SECRETSEVERY ONE OF TODAY’S most
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WHY AREN’T PEOPLE LOOKING FOR SEC
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are found mostly in history books a
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THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CONVENTIONHo
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THE CASE FOR SECRETSYou can’t fin
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HOW TO FIND SECRETSThere are two ki
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WHAT TO DO WITH SECRETSIf you find
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FOUNDING MATRIMONYWhen you start so
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To see misalignment at its most ext
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ON THE BUS OR OFF THE BUSAs a gener
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VESTED INTERESTSStartups don’t ne
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10
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BEYOND PROFESSIONALISMThe first tea
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compensation or perks, but you can
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DO ONE THINGOn the inside, every in
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11
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NERDS VS. SALESMENThe U.S. advertis
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himself). The polar opposite busine
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The traditional U.S. aerospace indu
Page 117 and 118: mass appeal but lack any method of
Page 119 and 120: One of these methods is likely to b
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Page 123 and 124: SUBSTITUTION VS. COMPLEMENTARITYFif
Page 125 and 126: people. We don’t trade with compu
Page 127 and 128: computer hybrid approach from PayPa
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Page 132 and 133: SEEING GREENAT THE START of the 21s
Page 134 and 135: 5. The Distribution QuestionDo you
Page 136 and 137: THE TIMING QUESTIONCleantech entrep
Page 138 and 139: THE MONOPOLY QUESTIONIn 2006, billi
Page 140 and 141: Cleantech entrepreneurs’ thinking
Page 142 and 143: THE DISTRIBUTION QUESTIONCleantech
Page 144 and 145: gas, and gas prices had fallen more
Page 146 and 147: THE MYTH OF SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Page 148 and 149: broader markets in the future.TEAM.
Page 150 and 151: world needs energy, only a firm tha
Page 152 and 153: THE FOUNDER’S PARADOXOF THE SIX P
Page 154 and 155: THE DIFFERENCE ENGINESome people ar
Page 156 and 157: Where does this strange and extreme
Page 158 and 159: Another example is Sean Parker, who
Page 160 and 161: WHERE KINGS COME FROMExtreme founde
Page 162 and 163: For some fallen stars, death brings
Page 164 and 165: distinctive persona? Or, in his inc
Page 166 and 167: the impeccably credentialed executi
Page 170 and 171: Singularity, an attempt to name the
Page 172 and 173: Illustration CreditsThe illustratio
Page 174 and 175: Boyle, RobertbrandingBranson, Richa
Page 176 and 177: Earnhardt, Dale, Jr.East Asian fina
Page 178 and 179: housing bubble, 2.1, 8.1Howery, Ken
Page 180 and 181: dynamism of newlies ofprofits ofpro
Page 182 and 183: Q-CellsRand, AynRawls, John, 6.1, 6
Page 184 and 185: globalization andproprietarytechnol
Page 186: About the AuthorsPeter Thiel is an
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