Zero to One_ Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future ( PDFDrive )

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ZERO TO ONE: THE FUTURE OF PROGRESSWhen we think about the future, we hope for a future of progress. That progresscan take one of two forms. Horizontal or extensive progress means copyingthings that work—going from 1 to n. Horizontal progress is easy to imaginebecause we already know what it looks like. Vertical or intensive progress meansdoing new things—going from 0 to 1. Vertical progress is harder to imaginebecause it requires doing something nobody else has ever done. If you take onetypewriter and build 100, you have made horizontal progress. If you have atypewriter and build a word processor, you have made vertical progress.At the macro level, the single word for horizontal progress is globalization—taking things that work somewhere and making them work everywhere. China isthe paradigmatic example of globalization; its 20-year plan is to become like theUnited States is today. The Chinese have been straightforwardly copyingeverything that has worked in the developed world: 19th-century railroads, 20th-
century air conditioning, and even entire cities. They might skip a few stepsalong the way—going straight to wireless without installing landlines, forinstance—but they’re copying all the same.The single word for vertical, 0 to 1 progress is technology. The rapid progressof information technology in recent decades has made Silicon Valley the capitalof “technology” in general. But there is no reason why technology should belimited to computers. Properly understood, any new and better way of doingthings is technology.Because globalization and technology are different modes of progress, it’spossible to have both, either, or neither at the same time. For example, 1815 to1914 was a period of both rapid technological development and rapidglobalization. Between the First World War and Kissinger’s trip to reopenrelations with China in 1971, there was rapid technological development but notmuch globalization. Since 1971, we have seen rapid globalization along withlimited technological development, mostly confined to IT.This age of globalization has made it easy to imagine that the decades aheadwill bring more convergence and more sameness. Even our everyday languagesuggests we believe in a kind of technological end of history: the division of theworld into the so-called developed and developing nations implies that the“developed” world has already achieved the achievable, and that poorer nations
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Page 5 and 6: PrefaceZERO TO ONEEVERY MOMENT IN B
Page 7: THE CHALLENGE OF THE FUTUREWHENEVER
Page 11 and 12: STARTUP THINKINGNew technology tend
Page 13 and 14: A QUICK HISTORY OF THE ’90SThe 19
Page 15 and 16: MANIA: SEPTEMBER 1998-MARCH 2000Dot
Page 17 and 18: hurry. A South Korean firm wired us
Page 19 and 20: The entrepreneurs who stuck with Si
Page 21 and 22: dogmatically rejecting them. Instea
Page 23 and 24: In this book, we’re not intereste
Page 25 and 26: Think about how Google talks about
Page 27 and 28: between Hackers and Jaws: rap star
Page 29 and 30: RUTHLESS PEOPLEThe problem with a c
Page 31 and 32: monopoly profits provides a powerfu
Page 33 and 34: competed even harder for the standa
Page 35 and 36: Office vs. Docs, and Surface vs. Ne
Page 37 and 38: If you can’t beat a rival, it may
Page 39 and 40: In March 2001, PayPal had yet to ma
Page 41 and 42: CHARACTERISTICS OF MONOPOLYWhat doe
Page 43 and 44: 3. Economies of ScaleA monopoly bus
Page 45 and 46: BUILDING A MONOPOLYBrand, scale, ne
Page 47 and 48: Silicon Valley has become obsessed
Page 49 and 50: YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKETTHE MOS
Page 51 and 52: CAN YOU CONTROL YOUR FUTURE?You can
Page 53 and 54: merry in the meantime: hence Europe
Page 55 and 56: hubris. You can still visit the Bay
Page 57 and 58: businessman, but actually his own a
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opinion exactly, so for the most pa
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Francis Bacon wrote that “the pro
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American households were saving, at
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THE RETURN OF DESIGNWhat would it m
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YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKETWe have
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to understand: we don’t live in a
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The error lies in expecting that ve
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of companies that will successfully
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After 10 years, however, the portfo
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WHAT TO DO WITH THE POWER LAWThe po
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SECRETSEVERY ONE OF TODAY’S most
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WHY AREN’T PEOPLE LOOKING FOR SEC
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are found mostly in history books a
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THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CONVENTIONHo
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THE CASE FOR SECRETSYou can’t fin
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HOW TO FIND SECRETSThere are two ki
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WHAT TO DO WITH SECRETSIf you find
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FOUNDING MATRIMONYWhen you start so
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To see misalignment at its most ext
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ON THE BUS OR OFF THE BUSAs a gener
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VESTED INTERESTSStartups don’t ne
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10
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BEYOND PROFESSIONALISMThe first tea
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compensation or perks, but you can
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DO ONE THINGOn the inside, every in
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11
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NERDS VS. SALESMENThe U.S. advertis
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himself). The polar opposite busine
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The traditional U.S. aerospace indu
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mass appeal but lack any method of
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One of these methods is likely to b
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12
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SUBSTITUTION VS. COMPLEMENTARITYFif
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people. We don’t trade with compu
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computer hybrid approach from PayPa
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generalized artificial intelligence
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SEEING GREENAT THE START of the 21s
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5. The Distribution QuestionDo you
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THE TIMING QUESTIONCleantech entrep
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THE MONOPOLY QUESTIONIn 2006, billi
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Cleantech entrepreneurs’ thinking
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THE DISTRIBUTION QUESTIONCleantech
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gas, and gas prices had fallen more
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THE MYTH OF SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP
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broader markets in the future.TEAM.
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world needs energy, only a firm tha
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THE FOUNDER’S PARADOXOF THE SIX P
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THE DIFFERENCE ENGINESome people ar
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Where does this strange and extreme
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Another example is Sean Parker, who
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WHERE KINGS COME FROMExtreme founde
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For some fallen stars, death brings
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distinctive persona? Or, in his inc
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the impeccably credentialed executi
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future will look a lot like the pre
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Singularity, an attempt to name the
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Illustration CreditsThe illustratio
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Boyle, RobertbrandingBranson, Richa
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Earnhardt, Dale, Jr.East Asian fina
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housing bubble, 2.1, 8.1Howery, Ken
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dynamism of newlies ofprofits ofpro
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Q-CellsRand, AynRawls, John, 6.1, 6
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globalization andproprietarytechnol
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About the AuthorsPeter Thiel is an
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