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BoundedRationality_TheAdaptiveToolbox.pdf

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230<br />

Ido Erev andAlvin E. Roth<br />

behavior in more than 60 games in which players cannot reciprocate and, as we<br />

hope to show in the future (Erev and Roth, in prep.), can be extended to any 2x2<br />

game.<br />

In general, the approach that we have outlined here involves separating players'<br />

learning rules from their cognitive model of the available strategies. The<br />

present example is intended to make plausible the speculation that, with an appropriate<br />

model of strategies, even very simple models of reinforcement learning<br />

may be sufficient to predict how behavior will evolve over time in repeated<br />

play of simple games.<br />

ACKNOWLEDGMENT<br />

This research was supported by the Henry Gutwirth Promotion of Research Fund,<br />

Israel-U.S.A. Binational Science Foundation, and the National Science Foundation<br />

(U.S.A.).<br />

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Axelrod, R. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic.<br />

Bolton, G., and A. Ockenfels. 1998. Strategy and equity: An ERC-analysis of the<br />

Guth-van Damme game. J. Math. Psych. 42:215—226.<br />

Bornstein, G., D.V. Budescu, and S. Zamir. 1997. Cooperation in intergroup, N-person<br />

and two-person games of chicken. J. Confl. Res. 41:384-406.<br />

Camerer, C.F., and T Ho. 1999. Experience-weighted attraction in games.Econometrica<br />

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Experimental investigation, and implications for reinforcement learning models. J.<br />

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53-78. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.<br />

Erev, I., and A.E. Roth. 1998b. Predicting how people play games: Reinforcement<br />

learning in experimental games with unique, mixed strategy equilibria. Am. Econ.<br />

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Fehr, E., and K. Schmidt. 1999. How to account for fair and unfair outcomes — A model<br />

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Gigerenzer, G., U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting. 1991. Probabilistic mental models: A<br />

Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psych. Rev. 98:506-528.<br />

Kelly, H.H., and J. Tibaut. 1978. Interpersonal Relations: A Theory of Independence.<br />

New York: Wiley.

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