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Upscaling and Inverse Modeling of Groundwater Flow and Mass ...

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Submitted to Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci..<br />

6<br />

<strong>Groundwater</strong> <strong>Flow</strong> <strong>Inverse</strong><br />

<strong>Modeling</strong> in<br />

non-multiGaussian Media:<br />

Performance Assessment <strong>of</strong><br />

the Normal-Score Ensemble<br />

Kalman Filter<br />

Abstract<br />

The normal-score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF) is tested on a synthetic<br />

aquifer characterized by the presence <strong>of</strong> channels with a bimodal distribution<br />

<strong>of</strong> its hydraulic conductivities. Fourteen scenarios are analyzed which differ<br />

among them in one or various <strong>of</strong> the following aspects: the prior r<strong>and</strong>om<br />

function model, the boundary conditions <strong>of</strong> the flow problem, the number <strong>of</strong><br />

piezometers used in the assimilation process, or the use <strong>of</strong> covariance localization<br />

in the implementation <strong>of</strong> the Kalman filter. The performance <strong>of</strong> the<br />

NS-EnKF is evaluated through the ensemble mean <strong>and</strong> variance maps, the<br />

connectivity patterns <strong>of</strong> the individual conductivity realizations <strong>and</strong> the degree<br />

<strong>of</strong> reproduction <strong>of</strong> the piezometric heads. The results show that (i) the<br />

141

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