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time of purchase and finally changing destination for purchase. On the other hand there were
income effects, i.e. the level of consumption for services and goods decreasing for individuals
or households that paid congestion charge. If substitution effects were significant it was
presumed to show a clear change in turnover for retail trade within the congestion charge zone
in comparison to retail trade outside the zone and average national figures at the time of the
trial period. If income effects were significant it was presumed to be shown through a slower
development of retail trade in the zone compared to a national average.
The size of income effects and its effect on total disposable income and the turnover of retail
in the Stockholm area were examined by calculating the size of the part of the congestion
charge coming from households´ disposable income. The Stockholm trial generated SEK 230
million from households which corresponds to one per mille of the disposable income in the
Stockholm area. The retail trade in the same area had an approximate SEK 60 billion turnover
during the trial period. Households spend approximately 35 percent of disposable income on
retail purchases. This means that approximately SEK 75 million of the households disposable
income was spent on some kind of retail trade. The impact of income effect on retail trade is
therefore estimated to 0,13 percent. In both cases the income effect appears to be of no
importance for the development of retail trade in the Stockholm area.
The study of development of retail turnover was executed both as a descriptive analysis and as
an econometric analysis. The descriptive analysis showed that the retail trade in Stockholm
experienced a lower development than national average in 2006. This mainly relates to a low
development of the retail trade within the congestion charge zone. The low development of
the grocery sector within the zone is due to its small scale and the fact that consumers use
these for complementary purchases while the hypermarkets outside town are used for larger
purchases. The weak development of durables in the central area of Stockholm was mainly a
result of the change of structure that retail trade in the area is undergoing. This structure
change means that department stores and shopping centres are the winners while small free-
standing shops for a long period of time have been loosing market shares. The study neither
examined the development of single department stores, shopping centres or small free-
standing shops nor whether units located close to the congestion charge zone were more
affected than units located more centrally.
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