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Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America

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SESSION NO. 23<br />

imagination, even when abundant subsurface data are readily available. In practice, subsurface<br />

information is usually sparse, and evaluating model uncertainty constitutes a significant challenge.<br />

This study employs hybrid models incorporating stochastic variability <strong>with</strong>in a deterministic<br />

hydrostratigraphic framework to model spatial variability <strong>of</strong> physical hydrogeologic properties and<br />

assess contaminant transport prediction uncertainty in a complex glacial aquifer system.<br />

The approach is illustrated <strong>with</strong> a case study in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA, where plumes<br />

<strong>of</strong> groundwater containing 1,4-dioxane have migrated several kilometers in different directions<br />

through 80m <strong>of</strong> underlying glacial drift. The deepest known plume appears to be advancing<br />

toward the Huron River beneath a groundwater Prohibition Zone established in 2005. 1,4-Dioxane<br />

is readily soluble in water but resistant to microbial degradation and adsorption to soil particles.<br />

Thus, it provides a tracer-like record <strong>of</strong> solute transport. More than 130 monitoring wells and 20<br />

extraction wells have been drilled to detect, trace, and remediate 1,4-dioxane in the area. These<br />

wells form the basis <strong>of</strong> an allostratigraphic interpretation <strong>of</strong> the three-dimensional distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

aquifer and aquitard units, constrained by available hydraulic head and contaminant concentration<br />

data, that is described in this presentation. Stochastic modeling <strong>of</strong> aquifer and aquitard properties<br />

<strong>with</strong>in that deterministic hydrogeologic framework is described in a companion presentation.<br />

23-5 9:35 AM Pappas, Lena K. [218547]<br />

ADDING THE SPOTS: STOCHASTIC MODELING WITHIN A DETERMINISTIC<br />

HYDROSTRATIGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL-SCALE VARIABILITY<br />

AND UNCERTAINTY IN A COMPLEX GLACIAL AQUIFER SYSTEM<br />

PAPPAS, Lena K., Dept. <strong>of</strong> Geology, Wayne State University, 0224 Old Main, 4841 Cass,<br />

Detroit, MI 48202, lkpappas@wayne.edu and LEMKE, Lawrence D., Department <strong>of</strong> Geology,<br />

Wayne State University, 0224 Old Main, 4841 Cass, Detroit, MI 48202<br />

Glacial sediments contain variable and complex textures and sedimentary structures that can<br />

impede attempts to predict field scale subsurface groundwater flow or contaminant transport<br />

behavior. Refinement <strong>of</strong> deterministic hydrostratigraphic models to account for small-scale<br />

variability using stochastic modeling provides a means to assess flow and transport uncertainty.<br />

This study illustrates the application <strong>of</strong> a hybrid modeling approach integrating deterministic and<br />

stochastic components to assess uncertainty in selected contaminant transport metrics. The<br />

site is located in central Washtenaw County, Michigan, USA, where monitoring wells have been<br />

installed in more than 130 locations as part <strong>of</strong> an ongoing remediation effort.<br />

Natural gamma radiation counts were recorded in monitoring well logs located throughout<br />

the site. Measurement intervals in each well were classified as aquifer or aquitard based on<br />

their position <strong>with</strong>in a deterministic allohydrostratographic interpretation. Sequential Gaussian<br />

simulation was used to create an ensemble <strong>of</strong> realizations <strong>of</strong> gamma values conditioned to<br />

gamma well log measurements <strong>with</strong>in a 14km2 area <strong>of</strong> a regional groundwater model. Aquifer<br />

and aquitard simulations were generated separately and merged into a single 3D model honoring<br />

the original allohydrostratographic interpretation. Hydraulic conductivity was then assigned in<br />

each 30x30x3m MODFLOW model cell based on an experimentally determined exponential<br />

relationship between hydraulic conductivity and gamma count values. 100 stochastic realizations<br />

were ranked a priori using harmonic mean K values for flow paths along the primary migration<br />

direction between the source area and the Huron River, a potential groundwater discharge<br />

location at the site. Relevant transport metrics (e.g., first arrivals and breakthrough times at the<br />

river calculated using MODPATH and MT3D) were compared among realizations to evaluate the<br />

degree to which stochastic variability influences transport and whether a priori rankings can be<br />

used to identify realizations representing the range <strong>of</strong> transport behavior uncertainty predicted<br />

using the full ensemble.<br />

23-6 10:25 AM Keefer, Donald A. [218826]<br />

SEDIMENTOLOGIC MODELING AND TRANSMISSIVITY MAPPING TO SUPPORT<br />

GROUNDWATER FLOW AND CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT MODELING IN GLACIAL<br />

SEDIMENTS<br />

KEEFER, Donald A., THOMASON, Jason F., and BROWN, Steven E., Illinois State<br />

<strong>Geological</strong> Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University <strong>of</strong> Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,<br />

615 E. Peabody Dr, Champaign, IL 61820, dkeefer@illinois.edu<br />

Over the past decade, geologists and hydrogeologists at the Illinois State <strong>Geological</strong> Survey<br />

(ISGS) have been trying to provide users <strong>with</strong> maps and accompanying information that better<br />

support decisions about groundwater quantity and quality problems. Recent advances <strong>with</strong>in the<br />

ISGS into new methods in 3-D geologic and hydrogeologic mapping have provided opportunities<br />

to push out new map products that further benefit hydrogeologic problem solving.<br />

A strategy is evolving at the ISGS where sedimentologic models <strong>of</strong> varying complexity are used<br />

<strong>with</strong> 3-D maps <strong>of</strong> sand/gravel aquifer distribution and thickness to produce sets <strong>of</strong> transmissivity<br />

maps that provide insight on the predicted ranges and distributions <strong>of</strong> hydraulic conductivity.<br />

The complexity <strong>of</strong> the sedimentologic models are based on the quantity and quality <strong>of</strong> available<br />

data, confidence in the conceptual models governing the overall glacial framework, and the<br />

objectives being addressed by the mapping efforts. On one end, transmissivity maps reflect<br />

general sedimentologic shifts, such as proximal to distal relationships based on distance from ice<br />

margins, together <strong>with</strong> broad ranges in hydraulic conductivity from published table-based sources.<br />

This approach results in generalized maps reflecting broad zonation <strong>of</strong> estimated maximum<br />

and minimum transmissivity values. At the other end <strong>of</strong> the complexity spectrum, geostatistical<br />

methods are used <strong>with</strong> the traditionally-developed 3-D maps to simulate a number <strong>of</strong> possible<br />

distributions <strong>of</strong> sediment lithotypes or facies <strong>with</strong>in aquifers. Then these lithotype distributions are<br />

populated <strong>with</strong> geostatistically-simulated values <strong>of</strong> porosity and permeability to create a range <strong>of</strong><br />

possible 3-D models <strong>of</strong> the aquifer hydraulic properties. These can be ranked and upscaled as<br />

appropriate for the groundwater problem at hand.<br />

23-7 10:50 AM Mulligan, Riley P.M. [218370]<br />

DETERMINING THE 3-D GLACIAL SEDIMENTOLOGY AND HYDROSTRATIGRAPHY OF THE<br />

SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY OF SIMCOE, SOUTHERN ONTARIO<br />

MULLIGAN, Riley P.M., School <strong>of</strong> Geography and Earth Science, McMaster University, 1280<br />

Main St. West, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, mulligrp@mcmaster.ca, EYLES, Carolyn H.,<br />

School <strong>of</strong> Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, and<br />

BAJC, Andy F., Ontario <strong>Geological</strong> Survey, 933 Ramsey Lake Road, Sudbury, ON P3E 6B5,<br />

Canada<br />

Increasing urban expansion and agricultural growth are placing growing stresses on existing<br />

groundwater reserves hosted <strong>with</strong>in Quaternary sediments in southern Ontario. Preserving<br />

the quality <strong>of</strong> groundwater resources requires a detailed knowledge <strong>of</strong> the three-dimensional<br />

distribution <strong>of</strong> subsurface geologic units. In the South Simcoe region <strong>of</strong> Ontario this is made<br />

possible through integration <strong>of</strong> data from fully-cored boreholes and sediment outcrops.<br />

54 2013 GSA <strong>Abstracts</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Programs</strong><br />

Analysis <strong>of</strong> 56 outcrop exposures in cutbanks along the Nottawasaga River and 6 fully-cored<br />

boreholes <strong>with</strong>in the former Lake Algonquin plain have led to the identification <strong>of</strong> six lith<strong>of</strong>acies<br />

associations (FA1–6). The stratigraphy is floored by the late Wisconsin Newmarket Till (FA1) which<br />

is locally overlain by ice-proximal debris flows (FA2). These glacial sediments are overlain by<br />

glaciolacustrine silt rhythmites (FA3) that pass upwards into deltaic sand (FA4) and channelized<br />

fluviodeltaic sand and gravel (FA5). Lying above the fluvial deposits are widespread sand and silt<br />

rhythmites (FA6), which coarsen up-section toward the ground surface. Qualitative observations<br />

<strong>of</strong> groundwater discharge through these FAs at outcrop faces has yielded important data on<br />

the internal heterogeneity <strong>of</strong> subsurface units, as well as possible preferential groundwater<br />

flow pathways through both aquifer and aquitard units <strong>with</strong>in the region. The sand-rich surficial<br />

layers (FAs 4-6) <strong>with</strong>in the Lake Algonquin plain form an unconfined aquifer system that permits<br />

extensive infiltration <strong>of</strong> surface water. The lower aquitard units (FAs 1 and 3) form a regionally<br />

significant hydraulic barrier for surficial water sources, directing shallow groundwater laterally<br />

into the Nottawasaga River. Coarse-grained interbeds are observed <strong>with</strong>in the lower aquitard<br />

units and create layers or conduits <strong>of</strong> high hydraulic conductivity that permit transport <strong>of</strong> shallow<br />

groundwater. The potential connection <strong>of</strong> coarse-grained layers could create hydraulic windows<br />

through the aquitards, allowing surficial water sources to reach more deeply buried aquifer units.<br />

Understanding the geometry and interconnectedness <strong>of</strong> these subsurface sediments is essential<br />

for planning drinking water supply for growing urban communities in the region and for the<br />

prediction <strong>of</strong> contaminant migration pathways.<br />

23-8 11:10 AM Weaver, Laura K. [218660]<br />

EXAMINING THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED HYDROGEOLOGIC KNOWLEDGE ON<br />

STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL RECONSTRUCTIONS OF<br />

GLACIGENIC SEDIMENT<br />

WEAVER, Laura K. 1 , ARNAUD, Emmanuelle2 , ABBEY, Daron1 , SHIKAZE, Steven1 ,<br />

MEYER, Jessica R. 3 , and PARKER, Beth L. 3 , (1) Matrix Solutions Inc, 31 Beacon Point<br />

Court, Breslau, ON N1B 1M0, Canada, lweaver@matrix-solutions.com, (2) G360 Centre for<br />

Applied Groundwater Research, School <strong>of</strong> Environmental Sciences, University <strong>of</strong> Guelph,<br />

Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada, (3) G360 Centre for Applied Groundwater Research, School<br />

<strong>of</strong> Engineering, University <strong>of</strong> Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada<br />

Three-dimensional (3D) hydrogeologic representations <strong>of</strong> the subsurface focus on the spatial<br />

distribution and interconnectedness <strong>of</strong> hydrogeologic units inferred from lithology, primary and<br />

secondary structures, fluid chemistry, hydraulic head, and hydraulic conductivity data, in addition<br />

to other data sources. These conceptual models are guided by a hydrogeologic framework<br />

developed from depositional environment interpretations and may form the basis for numerical<br />

groundwater flow modeling. Although sophisticated 3D interpolation s<strong>of</strong>tware and numerical<br />

efficient <strong>of</strong> modeling codes enable parameterization and simulation <strong>of</strong> complex systems,<br />

the availability and quality subsurface data limits the modeled complexity. Uncertainty in the<br />

distribution and geometries <strong>of</strong> subsurface units between field data points may be reduced through<br />

the inclusion <strong>of</strong> stratigraphic knowledge in the interpolation process.<br />

To explore the influence <strong>of</strong> enhanced (hydro)geologic understanding on framework<br />

development, three conceptual block models were constructed for glacial sediment associated<br />

<strong>with</strong> ice marginal deposition. Unit volumes were generated using: 1) associations based on<br />

sediment texture, b) an imposed conceptual framework on genetically-linked, texturally similar<br />

sediment, and 3) an imposed framework on genetically-linked, texturally similar sediment <strong>with</strong><br />

the addition <strong>of</strong> control points. Increasing amounts <strong>of</strong> “expert” knowledge is incorporated into<br />

each model, moving from a model developed solely on the available data, through the inclusion<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional stratigraphic knowledge, and furthered <strong>with</strong> additional inferences based on expected<br />

facies associations. The distribution and interconnectedness <strong>of</strong> sediment were interpolated across<br />

the study area using interpolation algorithms in a 3D s<strong>of</strong>tware environment.<br />

The resulting hydrogeologic unit geometries were evaluated for plausibility given the<br />

established glacial history <strong>of</strong> the area and error associated <strong>with</strong> the interpolation. The influence <strong>of</strong><br />

hydrogeologic knowledge on output unit distributions and the resulting structural uncertainty was<br />

investigated by comparison <strong>of</strong> unit distributions and geometries, relative unit volumes, and fit <strong>of</strong><br />

the top <strong>of</strong> unit elevations to borehole observations across the three conceptual block models.<br />

23-9 11:30 AM Dogan, Mine [218733]<br />

INTEGRATING 3D GPR FACIES ANALYSIS AND HIGH RESOLUTION HYDRAULIC<br />

CONDUCTIVITY DATA: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT MODELING IN HETEROGENEOUS<br />

MEDIA<br />

DOGAN, Mine1 , VAN DAM, Remke L. 1 , HYNDMAN, David W. 1 , and BUTLER, James J. Jr2 ,<br />

(1) Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Geological</strong> Sciences, Michigan State University, 206 Natural Science<br />

Building, East Lansing, MI 48824, minedoga@msu.edu, (2) Kansas <strong>Geological</strong> Survey,<br />

University <strong>of</strong> Kansas, 1930 Constant Ave, Lawrence, KS 66047<br />

The transport <strong>of</strong> solutes through aquifers is primarily controlled by the spatial distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

hydraulic conductivity (K). With limited availability <strong>of</strong> K data, as is common in many field studies, it<br />

is not possible to accurately simulate transport using the classical advection-dispersion equation,<br />

particularly in heterogeneous deposits. Although alternative approaches for simulating transport<br />

through such deposits may provide reasonable representations <strong>of</strong> average plume behavior,<br />

they do not replicate observed concentration histories at observation wells. We postulate that a<br />

suite <strong>of</strong> novel high-resolution characterization methods may provide the necessary subsurface<br />

data to significantly improve flow and transport simulations through heterogeneous porous<br />

media. To this end, we combined 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data <strong>with</strong> high-resolution<br />

K (HRK) and electrical conductivity (EC) data from direct-push pr<strong>of</strong>iles, at a heterogeneous<br />

fluvial deposit in northeastern Mississippi. The full-resolution GPR data cubes, collected using<br />

standard field equipment, were used to generate 3D facies models, which include information on<br />

major bounding surfaces, dip angles and directions, and connectivity. The HRK and EC pr<strong>of</strong>iles,<br />

collected using equipment mounted on Geoprobe drilling rigs, provided information on vertical<br />

distribution <strong>of</strong> hydraulic and electric properties at intervals <strong>of</strong> a few centimeters. Comparative<br />

analysis <strong>of</strong> the geophysical and drilling data reveals a good correlation at the major facies<br />

boundaries. Data integration has enabled construction <strong>of</strong> hydrostratigraphic models <strong>of</strong> these<br />

heterogeneous deposits and realistic modeling <strong>of</strong> flow and transport.

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