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LITHUANIAN HIGHLIGHTS Financial Crisis and its Result By Povilas Sigitas Krivickas Global economical and financial crisis, which broke in 2007, still continues, yet declines. It has started in the USA, when a carousel of inordinately easily given credits was released as a genie from a bottle and bank managers irresponsibly raised their salaries and various premium payouts. The bubble of ungrounded credits in real estate market and excessive bankers’ rapacity had to explode one day and to shake financial market from the base, as earthquakes did to Haiti and Chile. One of the most famous experts in the world, former manager of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan has admitted the mistakes of financial support institutions, which caused the global credit crunch. However, he has rejected the propositions that economical decline is related only to low norms of the USA Federal Reserve Bank interest. This is what the Wall Street Journal publishes with reference to the A. Greenspan’s report, which he has presented in Brookings Institute. Though Greenspan has admitted that the institution he managed had not properly evaluated the risk, emerging in the hypothec market during the latter decade. Financial support institutions had to demand the banks to keep higher funds. A. Greenspan had also noticed that it was barely possible to preempt the crisis. In his opinion, a way too long economical prosperity and a habit to use loaned money in an inadequate way was bound to end like this. Due to the crisis, many biggest USA and Europe’s financial institutions went bankrupt, were taken or nationalized. Crisis has resulted in the highest decline of the USA Gross Domestic Product since World War 2, as well as the increase of unemployment to the highest level in 30 years. The crisis has not passed Lithuania neither. New Government of Andrius Kubilius, which started its work in December 2008, had faced a really heavy task – to protect the country’s financial system and the country itself from collapsing. Exceptionally strict financial management politics has been started – various taxes have been increased (firstly the VAT), social benefits have been lowered. However, no measures have been employed to promote business (especially in minor and average sectors) so as to sustain as much as possible workplaces and to establish new ones. Unemployment have outreached 14 percent limit, influencing over 300 thousand of employable citizens. In Lithuania and other Baltic countries crisis have touched really harshly those people, who invested their savings to the stocks directly or through investment and pension funds. On the other hand, credit crunch has indirectly touched each and every person, because it has limited the ability to borrow, consume, invest, create business, get higher income and improve own welfare. Decreasing level of trust in financial sector psychologically affects bank depositors too. Global financial crisis affects Lithuanian banks indirectly; it is felt through growing prices of foreign financial resources and decreasing flows of income from international financial markets. The growing prices of loans and weak accessibility to credits in foreign markets limit bank ability to borrow money to businessmen and citizens under good conditions. Due to increasing interest norms, the quality of bank loan portfolio may decline, and decreasing credit amounts may slow down the rate of beneficial growth. Finance analysts propose that improvement of the situation in Lithuanian and the Baltic States credit market highly depends not only on the end of the crisis in the global inter-bank sphere. It is important that region economics recovers and grows together with the positive changes of interest norms in the Euro Lithuanian Economic Review BUSINESS&EXHIBITIONS zone. It is obvious that the so-called economy overheat was determined not by productivity but by loan-influenced growth. Dangerous economical misbalance has formed: bubble of real estate prices, huge inflation, growing deficit of current account and budget. Having in mind quite limited means for solving sore problems, situation in our country may start to get better no earlier than in the second half of 2010. However, it is necessary to say that during tense period of crisis, Lithuanian financial bank situation remained quite stable and should stay so in the future. It was guaranteed by strong financial reverse from the superior foreign financial institutions (firstly in Scandinavian countries), quite strict control and conservative risk management. Stable financial bank situation and liquidity ratio in the future should be assured by their huge fund base, deposit insurance, which remains satisfactory to guarantee. Our banks faced no loss due to the bad USA real estate loans, while the controlling financial institutions had comparably little invested into the bankrupted foreign banks, so it faced only really small losses. The stability is also secured by the fact that only a small part of the Lithuanian bank income is related to the investments into stocks. On the other hand, comparably huge income is acquired from other financial corporation services, which are quite resistant to negative changes of business cycle. General rate of our bank system fund sufficiency at the moment reaches about 12 percent (required minimum is 8 percent) and it should expand even more by huge benefits of last year, which is counted to the ownership. In order to remedy the situation at the world level, it is necessary to wait for the recovery of the USA real estate market. For this to happen, at first home economic expectations, lending conditions should improve; excess real estate supply (as it is in Lithuania) should be radically decreased. There are no doubts that it will not be easy to get rid of some negative crisis results. For instance, governmental intrusion into the market has become normal, distorting the natural relations between its segments. Negative aspect is the decreasing competition in bank sector, defiance of moral responsibility, which may initiate bank risks in the future again. So it is very important that banks and support institutions limit the possibilities of forming new price bubbles. On the other hand, it is possible to artificially distort the market and to degrade its flexibility and effectiveness by tightening bank control. The good news is that our country has succeeded in standing against the challenges of the crisis. Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė during the European State leaders’ meeting in Brussels has stated: “Greece is facing hard times, which Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have worthily sustained. Becoming a member of the Euro zone, Greece has taken great responsibilities to perform the responsible fiscal and monetary politics. The country in great economical trouble must make responsible, rather than populist, financial decisions, must raptly search for ways and only then expect for the help from other countries. As a former Lithuanian Minister of Finance and the commissioner of European Committee for Financial and Fund Matters, Ms. D. Grybauskaitė knows this field very well. That is why leaders of the countries of other continents agree with her opinion that it is very important to eliminate obstructions for economical growth, one of the most important being the fragmentation of energetic market in the European Union. According to the country leader, poverty problem is also a sore to Lithuania and it must be solved by creating new working places. 7
8 BUSINESS&EXHIBITIONS Lithuanian Economic Revieww VERSLO AKTUALIJOS Lietuvoje skelbiamas saulės energetikos pramonės startas Lietuvos aukštųjų technologijų įmonės, susijungusios į Fotoelektros technologijų ir verslo asociaciją, ketina pasinaudoti unikalia padėtimi pasaulinėje rinkoje ir pradėti vystyti itin perspektyvią Fotoelektros technologijų – saulės energetikos gaminių pramonės šaką. Šiuo metu net 5 įmonės Lietuvoje ruošiasi pradėti gaminti saulės elementus. Fotoelektros technologijų ir verslo asociaciją sudaro bendrovės „Precizika- MET SC“, „Precizika Metrology“, „Modernios E-Technologijos“, „ViaSolis“, „BOD Group“, „Baltic Solar Energy“, „Baltic Solar Solutions“, „Saulės energija“, „Šiaurės miestelis“, VšĮ „Perspektyvių technologijų taikymo institutas“, „Europarama“, „Telebaltikos eksportas ir importas“ ir kt. „Šios investicijos – tai pradžia viso sektoriaus, kuris, tikiuosi, išaugs į rimtą industriją, Lietuvos augimo ramstį. Yra paskaičiuota, kad pridėtinės vertės švariųjų technologijų sektoriuje yra sukuriama 7 kartus daugiau, negu tradicinėje pramonėje. Viliuosi, kad ši investicija taps puikiu pavyzdžiu, kaip aukštosios technologijos tampa Lietuvos pramonės kasdienybe“, – saulės energetikos pramonės pristatyme sakė ūkio ministras Dainius Kreivys. Asociacijos prezidento prof. Ramučio Simo Petrikio teigimu, pasaulio mokslininkai ištyrė, jog saulės energetikos technologijos bus sparčiausiai besivystanti sritis artimiausius 20 m. ir tos šalys, kurios pasinaudos galimybe ir pradės laiku gaminti saulės elementus ir saulės modulius, gaus progą įžengti į didžiulį potencialą turinčias rinkas, eksportuoti savo gaminius ir tapti neatsiejama pasaulinės saulės energetikos pramonės dalimi. Šiandien įmonė „Precizika-MET SC“ atidaro pirmąją saulės elementų gamyklą Lietuvoje. Šalia atidaromo cecho dar šiais metais planuojama pradėti įrenginėti saulės modulių gamybos liniją. Įmonės planuose numatyta žymiai išplėsti saulės elementų ir modulių gamybą ir pasaulio rinkoms kasmet pateikti saulės elementų, kurių bendra galia sieks iki 100 MW. Kartu su „Precizika-MET SC“ ir kitos Lietuvos bendrovės – „Via Solis“, „BOD Group“, „Baltic Solar Energy“, „Baltic Solar Solutions“, „MG AB Precizika“ bei „TB eksportas importas“ – jau yra parengusios projektus gamybinių linijų atsiradimui ir artimiausiu metu planuoja diegti silicio, saulės elementų ir saulės modulių gamybos linijas. Visų šių įmonių planai siejami su atsiveriančiomis eksporto rinkomis. Investicijos į naujos pramonės šakos atsiradimą 2010–2012 m. sieks 150–200 mln. Lt. Šios krypties atsiradimą palaiko Vyriausybė, verslininkai investuoja padedami Europos Sąjungos fondų. Prognozuojama, kad fotoelektros technologijų klasterio įmonių apyvarta Lietuvoje 2016–2018 m. pasieks 1,6 mlrd. Lt. „Fotoelektros technologijų klasteris yra numatęs esminį proveržį aukštųjų technologijų srityje – saulės elementų, jų modulių ir silicio gamybos sektoriaus sukūrimą Lietuvoje. Jau per artimiausius metus silicio saulės elementų modulių gamyba šalyje ne tik padės tenkinti pasaulinės saulės energetikos poreikius, bet ir kurs naujas darbo vietas bei skatins technologinę pažangą Lietuvoje. Šios naujos pramonės šakos įmonių asociacija ženkliai prisidės prie šalies eksporto augimo. Planuojama, kad iki 2016–2018 m. bus sukurta 500 naujų darbo vietų, investuota iki 200 mln. Lt, o Lietuvos eksporto portfelyje šios šakos dalis sudarys 1,5 mlrd. Lt. Šiandien pasaulyje didžiausios silicio saulės elementus naudojančios saulės elektrinės šiuo metu veikia JAV bei Ispanijoje, tačiau jau dabar yra paskelbta apie keliolika kartų jų pajėgumus viršijančius projektus Kinijoje Vidinės Mongolijos stepėse bei Indijoje, Gudžarato valstijoje. Eksporto plėtra naujųjų technologijų srityje – tai receptas, kurį siūlo saulės energetikai skirtų elementų ir modulių pramonės iniciatoriai Lietuvoje.
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Page 40 and 41: STATYBA plokštes, kitą produkcij
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Page 44 and 45: EXHIBITIONS Lithuanian Economic Rev
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Page 50 and 51: ART MARKET Prie ežero II, 2009, 35
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