Scientific Theme: Advanced Modeling and Observing Systems

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Theme report: Climate System Variability characteristics of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs). The use of normalized raindrop size distributions will be investigated as a means of describing the profiling and scanning radar retrieved raindrop size distributions. ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR PSD06.2: Surface disdrometer, multi-frequency profiler, and multi-frequency polarimetric scanning radar observations from the Front Range Pilot Study were analyzed to quantify the temporal and spatial variability of the normalized raindrop size distribution parameters retrieved by the three types of instruments. These parameters are used in Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) and are inputs into numerical weather forecast models. Dr. Anthony Illingworth from Reading University, United Kingdom, spent three months of his sabbatical at CIRES/ESRL working on this problem. Two conference presentations were made on this topic and a peer-reviewed manuscript will be submitted in September 2007. Also, analysis of the multi-frequency profiler observations during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) revealed differences in the vertical structure of reflectivity during stratiform rain between the ground-based profiler and the satellite-based NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar indicating a possible bias in the satellite retrieval algorithm. MILESTONE PSD06.3: Investigate the effect of coupled vs. decoupled lower-tropospheric flow over the East Pacific Cold Tongue on equatorially trapped waves over the East Pacific. ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR PSD06.3: Previous work [Hartten and Datulayta, 2004] had shown that decoupled lower-tropospheric flow over the Galapagos occurred with SST24°C. In an attempt to identify periods when SSTs were inside that 23-24°C range, CIRES scientists examined 1994 to 2003 SST data from six near-equatorial TAO buoys along 95°W and 110°W. Our results showed that SSTs between 23ºC and 24ºC were less frequent at the 2°N buoys, during strong El Niño periods, and in the middle of cold (July to October) and warm (February to May) seasons. PSD15: Surface Processes GOAL: Develop and/or improve physical representations of atmosphere-surface interactions. MILESTONE PSD15.1: Examine the role of artificial correlation in data analysis of turbulent Prandtl number. ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR PSD15.1: Measurements of atmospheric turbulence made during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean Experiment (SHEBA) have been used to examine the behavior of the turbulent Prandtl number, Prt, in the stable atmospheric boundary layer (SBL) over the Arctic pack ice. It is found that Prt increases with increasing stability if Prt is plotted versus gradient Richardson number, Ri; but at the same time, Prt decreases with increasing stability if Prt is plotted versus flux Richardson number, Rf, or versus z/L. This paradoxical behavior derives from the fact that plots of Prt versus Ri (as well as versus Rf and z/L) have built-in correlation (or self-correlation) because of the shared variables. For independent estimates of how Prt behaves in the SBL, Prt is plotted against the bulk Richardson number; such plots have no built-in correlation. These plots show that, on the average, Prt decreases with increasing stability and Prt
Theme report: Climate System Variability of the critical factors for explaining the very high levels of nitric oxide [NO] found in past field experiments at the South Pole. The use of a tethered balloon profiling wind, temperature, NO, and ozone provided for a detailed interpretation of sodar data for the period December 12-30, 2003. For the same period, sonic anemometer 2-m turbulence measurements, averaged to 0.5 h, linked surface processes to the evolution of the boundary layer in response to changing radiative balance and synoptic weather changes. A mixing-layer detection method was developed and applied to half-hour average sodar amplitude profiles for the period November 23 – December 30, 2003. These data also allowed for testing of simple diagnostic equations for the mixing-layer depth as well as estimates of vertical diffusion rates under stable conditions, the latter being important for the effective depth of the mixing layer vis-à-vis the nonlinear NO chemistry postulated from earlier analyses. With the extended sampling period, two sub-seasonal regimes were examined: (1) a late-December period, with the full suite of supporting measurements, where the earlier results that shallow mixing layers associated with light winds and strong surface stability can be among the dominant factors leading to high NO levels, were repeated and (2) a late-November period that revealed additional complexities with very high NO concentrations appearing at times in concert with higher winds, weaker surface stability, and deeper mixing layers. The latter results are only consistent with a more complicated picture of how NO can build to very high levels that involves invoking the previously expressed dependence of elevated NO levels on nonlinear NOx (NOx = NO+NO2) chemistry, greater fluxes of NOx from the snowpack than previously observed at the South Pole, and the potential for enhanced NOx accumulation effects involving air parcels draining off the high plateau. The results of ANTCI from 2003 thus argue for more complete future observations of boundary layer conditions over the high Antarctic Plateau and determination of the spatial and temporal variability of snow nitrate concentrations over the high plateau and their relation to NO recycling and the snow accumulation/ablation/erosion cycle. MILESTONE PSD15.3: Install an "HMT Mesonet" to enhance surface observations in the American River Basin to try to trace the radar and free-air meteorology to what actually happens on the ground surface and gets into the streams. This will include more snow measurements and surface precipitation measurements and some soil and radiation measurements. ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR PSD15.3: The maritime mountain ranges of western North America span a wide range of elevations and are extremely sensitive to flooding from warm, winter storms, primarily because rain falls at higher elevations and over a much greater fraction of a basin‘s contributing area than during a typical storm. Accurate predictions of this rain-snow line are crucial to hydrologic forecasting. This study examines how remotely sensed atmospheric snow levels measured upstream of a mountain range (specifically, the brightband measured above radar wind profilers) can be used to portray accurately the altitude of the surface transition from snow to rain along the mountain‘s windward slopes, focusing on measurements in the Sierra Nevada, California, from 2001-2005. Snow accumulation varies with respect to surface temperature, diurnal cycles in solar radiation, and fluctuations in the free-tropospheric melting level. At 1.5°C, 50% of precipitation events fall as rain and 50% as snow, and on average, 50% of measured precipitation contributes to increases in SWE. Between 2.5 and 3°C, snow is equally likely to melt or accumulate, with most cases resulting in no change to SWE. Qualitatively, brightband heights (BBHs) detected by 915-MHz profiling radars up to 300 km away from the American River study basin agree well with surface-melting patterns. Quantitatively, this agreement can be improved by adjusting the melting elevation based on the spatial location of the profiler relative to the basin: BBHs decrease with increasing latitude and decreasing distance to the windward slope of the Sierra Nevada. Because of diurnal heating and cooling by radiation at the mountain surface, BBHs should also be adjusted to higher surface elevations near midday and lower elevations near midnight. MILESTONE PSD15.4: Compare soil moisture measurements with river gage height and precipitation events in the Russian River Basin of Northern California. Investigate how the correlation between precipitation and river flow changes after the soil has reached field capacity. ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR PSD15.4: An analysis of soil moisture and river gauge data taken in the Russian River Basin of Northern California has been completed. One notable case analyzed occurred during December 2005 in the basin. All of the soil moisture stations located in the basin at Healdsburg, Rio Nido, and Cazadero showed that the soil was extremely dry in early December. Stream flows were at or below seasonal norms. Large-scale synoptic weather systems began bringing 61
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COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH
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Table of Contents Letter from the D
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Executive Summary and Research High
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Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) CI
Page 15 and 16: CIRES in 2006-2007: Administration
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Page 19 and 20: CIRES in 2006-2007: Creating a Dyna
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Page 77 and 78: Scientific Theme: Geodynamics MILES
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Page 95 and 96: Scientific Theme: Regional Processe
Page 97 and 98: CSD08: Regional Air Quality Scienti
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Page 109 and 110: Global Snow Cover Mapping Richard A
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The Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cove
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Laboratory Studies of Clouds and Ae
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Center for the Study of Earth from
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Complementary Research: CIRES Scien
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National Snow and Ice Data Center C
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Center for Limnology Complementary
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Climate Diagnostics Center Compleme
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Complementary Research: Innovative
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Complementary Research: CIRES Fello
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Complementary Research: CIRES Fello
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CIRES’ Leadership Konrad Steffen:
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Appendices: Governance and Manageme
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Appendices: Student Diversity Progr
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Appendices: Publications Publicatio
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Appendices: Publications Beaver, M.
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Appendices: Publications Cimini, D.
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Appendices: Publications Sierau, B.
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Appendices: Publications Turnbull,
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Appendices: Publications Yoon, S.C.
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Appendices: Publications Maus, S.,
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Appendices: Publications Miller, J.
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Appendices: Publications Chernogor,
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Appendices: Publications Petropavlo
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Appendices: Publications Refereed J
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Appendices: Honors and Awards Honor
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Appendices: Service Service: Calend
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Appendices: Service Army Office of
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Appendices: Acronyms Acronyms and A
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Appendices: Acronyms DOE Department
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Appendices: Acronyms SHEBA Surface
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Scientific Theme: Advanced Modeling and Observing Systems

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