Scientific Theme: Advanced Modeling and Observing Systems

Scientific Theme: Integrating Activities
(2) The PIs have begun to develop a protocol for reporting drought impacts.
(3) Project PIs are also working on organizing a drought workshop (with a specific component aimed at
economic impacts assessments of drought) in partnership with the State of Colorado Office of Water
Conservation & Drought Planning.
WWA02: Climate Products
GOAL:
Develop information, products and processes to assist water resource decision makers throughout the
Intermountain West.
MILESTONE WWA02.1
Nonparametric streamflow reconstructions. This task will investigate an entirely new way of
reconstructing streamflows using a statistical technique not previously used by
dendrochronologists. Jointly funded by US Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder City, NV Office.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR WWA02.1:
Due to problems with reprogramming funding for this activity, this effort was delayed. Background work by the
consultant, Hydrosphere, was performed. This work will be completed this year.
MILESTONE WWA02.2:
Streamflow Reconstructions for Water Managers in Gunnison Basin for EIS. Using a novel
combination of historic gage data, and tree-ring data, create new streamflow reconstructions.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR WWA02.2:
Due to a lawsuit involving the ongoing Environmental Impact Statement, work was temporarily halted. However,
work has now been completed on comparing the current method of using stream flows (ISM) with our proposed
method based on a nonparametric nearest neighbor (―knn‖) algorithm.
A report documenting the advantages of the knn method has been prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and
the water managers in the Gunnison Basin and is online here: http://animas.colorado.edu/~nowakkc/EIS.html. Work
will now proceed on the paleoclimatology portion of the project.
MILESTONE WWA02.3:
Monthly Intermountain Climate Summary. Climate information is widely scattered on the web and
other locations. Water managers and other climate sensitive sectors have requested a single
monthly summary of climate information including precipitation, temperature, snow water
equivalent, long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks, reservoir levels and streamflow
forecasts.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR WWA02.3:
Released about eight times per year, Intermountain West Climate Summary provides updated climate and water
supply information catered to municipal water providers. See:
http://wwa.colorado.edu/products/forecasts_and_outlooks/intermountain_west_climate_summary/.
MILESTONE WWA02.4:
Web-based seasonal guidance for Water Managers, Climate Prediction Center. Improve ability of
federal, state, and local water managers to plan water operations during drought. Provide input to
CPC seasonal outlooks.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS FOR WWA02.4:
Assistance in the creation of CPC‘s seasonal forecasts has been provided. A key element of this assistance is the
regular creation of ―experimental seasonal guidance,‖ a statistically created forecast specific to the Four-Corners
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